new big IDN sale, Moscow.com in Russian 16.000$

[bwhhisc]

Originally Posted by touchring

Inflation and high interest rates would have slashed the value of houses in the Western world by half (Europe will come later than US, but it will still happen - interest rates goes up, house price comes down, it might not happen in a straightline, but it will happen eventually), and the IDNs you invested have at least quadripled. Is this an exaggeration? Erm no?

Where do you get these theories?
And how about a link to a credible source for this information?
Or...put in a disclaimer that this is your personal analysis.

[blastfromthepast]

Real estate. Value is down 5%. Rent is up 25%.

IDNs. Value is growing. PPC is still low.

[thegenius1]

Originally Posted by blastfromthepast

Real estate. Value is down 5%. Rent is up 25%.

IDNs. Value is growing. PPC is still low.

What do you consider low ppc ? We have been avg approx 20 cents per click

[touchring]

Originally Posted by bwhhisc

Where do you get these theories?
And how about a link to a credible source for this information?
Or...put in a disclaimer that this is your personal analysis.

Yes, a personal analysis conclusion drawn from countless news reports i read the past few months, and also from what i saw during and the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis - the result of real estate speculation and uncurtailed mortgage and bank lending.

When real asset price falls, and interest rates go up, people can't refinance, and with receding valuation, up to some point, finance companies will may even ask for loan redemption - i mean, someone must pay for the shortfall? Real estate cycles have always been up and then down, flat out, and then up again for as long as people traded houses.

Another point is, even with the best opportunities that can be found in IDNs today, reckless and blind investing will never work. Make sure you know what you are buying, have holding power to sit out, and don't over pay.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by touchring

Yes, a personal analysis conclusion drawn from countless news reports i read the past few months, and also from what i saw during and the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis - the result of real estate speculation and uncurtailed mortgage and bank lending.

When real asset price falls, and interest rates go up, people can't refinance, and with receding valuation, up to some point, finance companies will may even ask for loan redemption - i mean, someone must pay for the shortfall? Real estate cycles have always been up and then down, flat out, and then up again for as long as people traded houses.

Another point is, even with the best opportunities that can be found in IDNs today, reckless and blind investing will never work. Make sure you know what you are buying, have holding power to sit out, and don't over pay.

I think it is clear that there is a problem in the Real Estate market in the US, but it is far too early to tell, how serious it might be. There may be similar problems elsewhere, particularly in the UK, but here it is much more difficult to call as there is a huge shortage of property around London and migrant workers have greatly increased the demand for rental property. The situation, however, remains very fragile in my view.

I don't believe that the situtation in the Euro zone is anything like critical at the moment.

[touchring]

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

I think it is clear that there is a problem in the Real Estate market in the US, but it is far too early to tell, how serious it might be. There may be similar problems elsewhere, particularly in the UK, but here it is much more difficult to call as there is a huge shortage of property around London and migrant workers have greatly increased the demand for rental property. The situation, however, remains very fragile in my view.

I don't believe that the situtation in the Euro zone is anything like critical at the moment.

Selling a home for a good price might take a year or more. One can't wait till it's the peak to decide to sell.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by touchring

Selling a home for a good price might take a year or more. One can't wait till it's the peak to decide to sell.

Not in the Western World they don't normally. Six weeks is more typical.

Long delays in selling houses normally only comes after a crash, when sellers are not prepared to accept the new reality of the markets or simply are in a Catch 22 situation, as selling would leave them with outstanding debt to pay off, which is a situation some lenders prevent from happening anyway, as the terms of the loan often prevent you selling for less than the outstanding loan.

[bwhhisc]

Originally Posted by touchring

Yes, a personal analysis conclusion drawn from countless news reports i read the past few months, and also from what i saw during and the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis - the result of real estate speculation and uncurtailed mortgage and bank lending.

When real asset price falls, and interest rates go up, people can't refinance, and with receding valuation, up to some point, finance companies will may even ask for loan redemption - i mean, someone must pay for the shortfall? Real estate cycles have always been up and then down, flat out, and then up again for as long as people traded houses.

Another point is, even with the best opportunities that can be found in IDNs today, reckless and blind investing will never work. Make sure you know what you are buying, have holding power to sit out, and don't over pay.

You have stated here that housing prices in the USA will fall by 50% in the future.
And this is your personal analysis. Thanks for clearing that part up.

[burnsinternet]

US home prices rise and fall by market, not as a monolithic standard rate. Our united states are more like independent countries in that respect. Prices drop in some places, stabilize in others, and rise in other markets. My house, for example, just appraised at 20% over last year (the amount rose 20%).

[tee1]

Originally Posted by burnsinternet

US home prices rise and fall by market, not as a monolithic standard rate. Our united states are more like independent countries in that respect. Prices drop in some places, stabilize in others, and rise in other markets. My house, for example, just appraised at 20% over last year (the amount rose 20%).

Same here as Burns on appreciation. I am not sure we could afford to buy our house today or one in our subdivision, the prices have gone out of site, we bought our house 2.5 year ago. Alot can attributed to growth in the area, it is booming (also no state income tax) and on a micro level a new elementary school is opening in the fall within a few blocks, its amazing what drives housing prices.

On a sad note, I have heard of a few foreclosures, I think the zero down option and interest only loans are catching people.

on a point related to the thread maybe it will help me with москва.TK & москва.cc


tee1

[burnsinternet]

It was actually bad news. I am not planning to sell. It only means more taxes. When I bought, one bedroom and bathroom were unfinished (but permitted). Now that they are finished, I am afraid of what the appraisal will be if the County ever finds out!

[tee1]

I am with you on the property tax issue, we will probably be re-assessed again in a year or so. At least we don't have to pay a state income tax, but the other taxes bite.

tee1

[xxbossmanxx]

Originally Posted by blastfromthepast

We've heard that sob story quite a few times too many. Its time to get over it, wipe the last tear up, and move on. As others that dropped names have wisely done.

Blast, Stop wasting your time, why do you feel you have to butt ur fat head into everything. He said I must have some killer stuff so I explained I dont. There was no crying there. did I say wah wah Im crying? No.

You are a menace to every god damn thread which makes you a waste of time.

Look at the chain of posts #1-4 it makes perfect sense. I respond to what a guy says. Then 48 posts later you have to bring this bs up. This is non productive. Any member here can review them and clearly see I am not crying about anything. If there is anything we have heard one too many times is your mouth.

[blastfromthepast]

Originally Posted by xxbossmanxx

There was no crying there. did I say wah wah Im crying? No.

Well, you said you used to own names like Moscow.com. Since it was registered in 2003, it must have dropped back then, because thats a name someone would have since day 1.

As for the nostaligic information, I've just counted 8 different threads where you've brought this up. Ever notice how when you like, hear someone repeat a story about their life over and over again it gets really annoying about the 3rd time you hear it told?

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by burnsinternet

US home prices rise and fall by market, not as a monolithic standard rate. Our united states are more like independent countries in that respect. Prices drop in some places, stabilize in others, and rise in other markets. My house, for example, just appraised at 20% over last year (the amount rose 20%).

This is very true and utter nonsense at the same time.

In the UK the property market in London is totally different than other parts of the country. That is because the economy is very different. London is the World Financial and Trade Centre probably to a greater extent now than it is has have been. The rest of the country relies on supply London but has to compete with Eastern Europe and the Far East and elsewhere. Consequently property prices in London are at least double most regions most of the time. When property prices boom the start in London and the effect ripples out getting weaker the further you are away, and the crash comes it happens there first as well.

We are, however, one country, we have the same currency, interest rates and government spending. When the credit crunch comes everyone is affected and the weakest probably more than most.

The situation in the US will reflect this experience. Some areas will be more affluent with higher prices and more subject to speculative booms, other will always follow. You do all have one currency, and one federal government. Your fortunes are therefore inextricably linked together. Don't forget the great depression was triggered by the burst of a real estate bubble in Florida, and that was a global phenomenon.

[touchring]

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

This is very true and utter nonsense at the same time.

In the UK the property market in London is totally different than other parts of the country. That is because the economy is very different. London is the World Financial and Trade Centre probably to a greater extent now than it is has have been. The rest of the country relies on supply London but has to compete with Eastern Europe and the Far East and elsewhere. Consequently property prices in London are at least double most regions most of the time. When property prices boom the start in London and the effect ripples out getting weaker the further you are away, and the crash comes it happens there first as well.

We are, however, one country, we have the same currency, interest rates and government spending. When the credit crunch comes everyone is affected and the weakest probably more than most.

The situation in the US will reflect this experience. Some areas will be more affluent with higher prices and more subject to speculative booms, other will always follow. You do all have one currency, and one federal government. Your fortunes are therefore inextricably linked together. Don't forget the great depression was triggered by the burst of a real estate bubble in Florida, and that was a global phenomenon.

There's a big credit bubble going on, some cities took off first, some slower, some faster. Speculative money is fleeing Florida and California into previous laggards, and maybe the UK because of the rising pound.

But if there were to be a financial shock of some kind, e.g. sudden US devalue by 15% - say caused by central banks dumping the US treasury/reserves, and the Feds must raise interest rates to 10% like what the British back then to support the dollar, and overnight all will standstill. The yen carry trade of one trillion will also unwind at rapid speed, leading to further shocks.

Just before the Baht sudden devaluation that triggered the asian financial crisis, everything seemed impossibly good - new apartments everywhere in Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, new factories being built - America was busily importing, lots of people found jobs in factories, poverty was reducing - all seemed too good and an economic set back looked impossible.

Few suspected what is to come - unlike the current dollar and US real estate woes, a lot of people were caught completely unaware!

Bottomline - when it collapses, it really collapses. Now, we're only trying to hope that it won't collapse, but go into "soft-landing". And Iran is betting that the US is too concerned about ensuring a soft landing to do anything about it's nuclear weapons program. Smarty Persians.

[Rubber Duck]

You are having a laugh! The British has 15% interest rates for more than 12 months as recently as 1992.

The US problem is the dollar is currently the World's main reserve currency. To some extent it for a long time it has been the World's only reserve currency. That priveledged situation is now coming to an end. If the dollar was judge merely on the financial performance of the US economy rather than just on its shear size then a 15% devaluation might be fairly modest. And of course much of the shear size thing is grossly over-exaggerated due to the exchange rate.

It won't belong before the US economy is not much bigger than the EU or China or Russia or eventually India or Brazil either. It is just going to have to find its place in the World like everyone else. It is also going to have to get a lot less dependent on Oil Imports and jobs created by the Federal Government through defence spending. To be a World Class Military power, you have to have a World Class Economy independent of the defence sector to finance it all. If you could simply underpin an economy with a defence sector then the Soviet Union will still be thriving.

It will be interesting to see what happens when much of the World starts pegging their currency to Yuan!

Originally Posted by touchring

No joke year now?




There's a big credit bubble going on, some cities took off first, some slower, some faster. Speculative money is fleeing Florida and California into previous laggards, and maybe the UK because of the rising pound.

But if there were to be a financial shock of some kind, e.g. sudden US devalue by 15% - say caused by central banks dumping the US treasury/reserves, and the Feds must raise interest rates to 10% like what the British back then to support the dollar, and overnight all will standstill.

Basically, what everyone is waiting for is the big one. Will it happen? God knows.

[alpha]

you make it sound like everyone loses out with high interest rates.

not always the case.

I got a London property for example on a great long term fixed rate interest.

When the rates goes up it doesnt affect me, but it does mean that new entrants to the property market can't get a mortgage, so they rent instead - and the rental property market heats up. This is exactly what has happened in London.

Those landlords that have to adjust their rental rates to compensate for the higher mortgage payments will find that the competition is greater in the rental market - those that don't have to adjust their rates, either they do increase and reap the extra income, or keep low so they can beat of the competition.

as with everything in live, there are winners and losers. It just depends which side you are on.

[Rubber Duck]

Of course there are huge winners and losers, but if your one of them it is very marginal.

The big winners are the Banks. It is a common misconception that they only lend out the same amount of money as they borrow. They don't. They actually lend out up to ten times that amount.

So when Interest Rates their profits go through the roof. Of course they go to very great lengths to disguise that fact, so they take the opportunity to clear bad debts off the books that have probably been kicking around forever. Some of them probably aren't bad debts at all.

What happens to the economy, well of course huge amounts are being sucked out. We are all kidded into the fact that pensioners nest egg income will compensate for the money being taken in higher interest rates. The reality is that it doesn't even come close.

Totally ignoring the affordability aspect of things, liquidity in the economy dries up and just about everyone is very much poorer. If you want to be a winner. Get some Bank shares. And of course the cherry on the cake is that acquire a whole load of real estate assets from defaulters for the square root of bugger all.

[touchring]

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

It will be interesting to see what happens when much of the World starts pegging their currency to Yuan!

I know there are quite a few people who would think that the Yuan might be the upcoming currency. However bullish i am on China, i still can't see how such a restricted currency can be one. Of cos, you never know what's up in the sleaves of the chinese monetary officials.

The economic dominance of China is inevitable in the long term. The British in the 19th Century only managed to maintain a balanced trade through the use of opium and naval force, but possible only because China then was controlled by Mongols/Manchu rulers that are only good at riding horses and archery and knew nothing about business.