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[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by touchring

I know there are quite a few people who would think that the Yuan might be the upcoming currency. However bullish i am on China, i still can't see how such a restricted currency can be one. Of cos, you never know what's up in the sleaves of the chinese monetary officials.

The economic dominance of China is inevitable in the long term. The British in the 19th Century only managed to maintain a balanced trade through the use of opium and naval force, but possible only because China then was controlled by Mongols/Manchu rulers that are only good at riding horses and archery and knew nothing about business.

I don't think that economically the British ever actually exceeded the size of the Chinese Economy before the Americans took over as the World's number one.

Ok, for a 100 years or so America has been the largest economy, for nearly 2000 years before that it was unquestionably China. I am not sure that either the Romans or the Egyptians were actually bigger, so it could have been a lot longer than that!

The loss of World economic leadership has only ever been a temporary factor due to rapid technological change and restrictive ideology. The only thing that would prevent China becoming dominant would be disintegration, and even then the sum of the parts is still going to worth an awful lot and frankly, I don't really believe that it is in the Chines psyche to split.

[touchring]

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

I don't think that economically the British ever actually exceeded the size of the Chinese Economy before the Americans took over as the World's number one.

Ok, for a 100 years or so America has been the largest economy, for nearly 2000 years before that it was unquestionably China. I am not sure that either the Romans or the Egyptians were actually bigger, so it could have been a lot longer than that!

The loss of World economic leadership has only ever been a temporary factor due to rapid technological change and restrictive ideology. The only thing that would prevent China becoming dominant would be disintegration, and even then the sum of the parts is still going to worth an awful lot and frankly, I don't really believe that it is in the Chines psyche to split.

Well, the British exported Opium to balance the trade deficit from imports of Tea, Silk and chinaware whereas now the Americans are printing money on a runway train manner to finance its debt with the rest of the world.

It doesn't take a genius to know that this can't last forever and sooner or later, people will start to lose confidence and dump the dollar like toilet paper - which i think is what the American government wants - to devalue the debt it owns so it doesn't have to pay back.

But at what cost? The cost of American economic dominance and credibility. And if you think inflation is high now, think about the hyperinflation that comes when dollar becomes toilet paper.

The economic transformation which you have talked about last year is starting to unravel before our eyes!