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Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
It is not the Chinese public that will decide. It is the high profile Chinese Language sites that will decide. These have predominant used dot Com to date. They could of course always switch allegences, but I personally would not bet on it. 
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This is the reason I always emphasize that one needs to live in China to gain an insight knowledge and facts about the thingy of com vs cn. The public awareness of com is so high there. The phrase "dot com" means everything internet related. It is really hard to change the already formed public knowledge and habit. CNNIC has tried very hard to push in the use of cn. But so far it has been not very successful. IDN.cn will have a future and perhaps rank higher than idn.net, that is for sure, but it will not be a rival of idn.com.