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Old 11th May 2007, 04:51 AM
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Watch out- America is sleeping now, but Greenspan giving "closed-door" talks in Asia.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/econo...32357620070511

Greenspan says odds against U.S. recession 2 to 1
Thu May 10, 2007 10:47PM EDT
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SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes that the odds against a recession in the United States were now 2 to 1, he said on Friday according to participants at a closed-door investor forum.

They cited Greenspan as saying that global economic growth would help mitigate any slowdown in the U.S. economy but China's trade imbalances would be hard to correct as long as Beijing keeps the yuan artificially low.

"He said the odds against a recession were now 2 to 1," said Spencer White of Thien Viet Securities, who participated in the Merrill Lynch conference in Singapore.

Greenspan shook markets in February when he said it was possible the U.S. economy might fall into recession by the end of the year. He later said he saw a one-third chance of a recession.
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The United States economy grew at a tepid 1.3 percent annualized rate in the first quarter -- the weakest pace in four years.

Greenspan spoke via a satellite link from Washington. His remarks contrast with those of Ben Bernanke, the Fed's chairman, who has downplayed the risk of a recession.

Another audience member, who declined to be identified, said Greenspan spoke of the resilience of the U.S. financial markets, which would help to soothe investor worries over a possible Chinese selldown of its vast U.S. treasury holdings.

"He said there was incredible efficiency in financial markets and that the big worry about China stopping buying U.S. assets was less of an issue because of financial market strength," he said.

Greenspan said that the fundamental reason for the yen carry trade -- borrowing the low-yielding currency to invest in high-yielding assets -- was the ultra-low Japanese interest rate. Continued...

Last edited by touchring; 11th May 2007 at 05:05 AM..
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Old 11th May 2007, 06:50 AM
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Re: Watch out- America is sleeping now, but Greenspan giving "closed-door" talks in Asia.

That's not good odds.

Shuttle astronauts get better odds than that.
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Old 11th May 2007, 09:27 AM
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Re: Watch out- America is sleeping now, but Greenspan giving "closed-door" talks in Asia.

China and other countries will almost certainly continue to buy American assests, but this has bugger all to do with efficiency of financial markets. This is more to do with the fact that America is having to gradually pawn everything they have to pay the bills. I read the other day that 25% of everything in the US is own by foreigners and that percentage is rising at an alarming rate. The expression "Land of the Free" will start to ring a bit hollow if America no longer owns its own destiny.
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Old 11th May 2007, 10:09 AM
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Re: Watch out- America is sleeping now, but Greenspan giving "closed-door" talks in A

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
China and other countries will almost certainly continue to buy American assests, but this has bugger all to do with efficiency of financial markets. This is more to do with the fact that America is having to gradually pawn everything they have to pay the bills. I read the other day that 25% of everything in the US is own by foreigners and that percentage is rising at an alarming rate. The expression "Land of the Free" will start to ring a bit hollow if America no longer owns its own destiny.

I don't think the Chinese will continue buying American assets as aggressively as before, other than to support the dollar, the trend is now towards acquiring natural resources/rights.

I think Jim Rogers is correct, the commodity bullrun isn't ending soon, there will be corrections, but over the span of a few years, the trend is upwards.
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Old 11th May 2007, 10:32 AM
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Re: Watch out- America is sleeping now, but Greenspan giving "closed-door" talks in Asia.

There have been at least 5 recessions since 1968 that have affected the US.
Predicting that there will be a "next one" is a sure bet.
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Old 11th May 2007, 10:46 AM
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Re: Watch out- America is sleeping now, but Greenspan giving "closed-door" talks in Asia.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
There have been at least 5 recessions since 1968 that have affected the US.
Predicting that there will be a "next one" is a sure bet.
That may be so, but those that have affected the US have been comparatively mild compared with the rest of the World. The UK faced incredibly deep recessions in the later part of the 20th century, and Europe has been in slow growth malaise for a decade, whilst Japan has suffered near depression. Most of these places have had to face up to changing realities and make deep structural changes to turn the situation around. For the UK it has worked and we have had the longest extended period of growth in our history (I think). Even so, and even in the midst of the economic miracle that has been the UK, it is becoming clearly that further progress in reform is required in order to move to the next level. If we don't do that, then we too will fallout of that virtious cycle that we are complacently growing accustomed to.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
I don't think the Chinese will continue buying American assets as aggressively as before, other than to support the dollar, the trend is now towards acquiring natural resources/rights.

I think Jim Rogers is correct, the commodity bullrun isn't ending soon, there will be corrections, but over the span of a few years, the trend is upwards.
The Great Game is now on. The real prizes are in Central Asia and the three Great Powers are manouvering for position. Yes, it is all about Hydro-Carbons. China is desperately energy hungry and these places are on its door-step. Russia wants to maintain its influence in the region and secure supplies that it can retail to Europe, which is in danger of being held hostage over energy supplies. The US is trying to expand its influence whilst routing as much energy out through Azerbajan and Turkey as possible. The poor Kazaks would like to link up to the Baku Pipeline but are afraid of the Russian Response.

The thing that is clear in my mind is that the American Economy needs to get a lot more fuel efficient if it is going to prosper. Most other places are much better at being energy efficient simply because energy is much more heavily taxed. The idea that they can simply buy their way out of the problem is deeply flawed, as is that of using military power to secure supplies. The future will be about paying top dollar or perhaps top rouble for the energy, as even the dollars status as the petro-currency is now at stake.
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Last edited by Rubber Duck; 11th May 2007 at 10:56 AM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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