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Old 20th May 2007, 08:01 AM
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Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten London.

I'm not surprised that the shanghai stock market has become a casino, but i'm more surprised thatr the stock exchange computer system did not collapse from 10 fold increase in volume in just 6 mths.

To this respect, the people running the shanghainese stock exchange have already shown they are just as if not more capable than their counterparts in NYSE and Tokyo stock exchange.


http://wsws.org/articles/2007/may2007/chin-m17.shtml

Quote:
China’s “mad” stock market spiralling out of control
By John Chan
17 May 2007

Use this version to print | Send this link by email | Email the author

China’s frenzied stock market passed another extraordinary benchmark last week. On May 9, it recorded a trading volume for that day which was bigger than all the other share markets in Asia combined, including in Japan, the world’s second largest economy.

According to the Financial Times, the value of shares traded daily on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was $5 billion six months ago. On March 30, it hit $16.4 billion. Last Wednesday, the figure reached $49 billion—nearly double that of Japan and triple the combined trading volume of Australia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, India, Taiwan, Indonesia, New Zealand and Vietnam.

While still less than half the $122 billion in shares that were traded in the US on May 8, the Chinese share market eclipsed the trading volume in Britain of $29.4 billion. At the same time, the total capitalisation of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets of $2.2 trillion is still well below that of Japan at $4.7 trillion and eight times less than the $16.5 trillion of the US.

The rapid rise of the Chinese share market is having an impact. In less than two months, the Shanghai Composite Index has passed the 3,000 and the 4,000 mark. As it rises to giddy new heights, fears grow of a sudden, sharp “correction” that will have profound consequences not just in China, but internationally.

In late February, a tumble of 9 percent in Shanghai triggered a chain reaction around the world, including on Wall Street, which experienced its largest one-day fall since the September 11 terrorist attacks. Two months on, a major collapse in China could produce a much bigger international shock wave.

Even though the current speculative bubble involves mainly the so-called “A” shares, which are restricted to domestic investors, almost every economist has pointed to the dangers to the entire Chinese economy. While China’s GDP grew by more than 10 percent last year, the main Shanghai share market grew by 130 percent. It has added another 50 percent so far this year.

The price-to-earning ratios for China’s stocks are now around 50, compared to an average 14-18 throughout the rest of Asia. In other words, the prices being paid for Chinese shares are completely out of line with the profits of associated companies. Despite repeated warnings by the central bank, regulatory officials and economists, share values have continued to climb.

Buyers in this investment frenzy include the emerging urban middle classes and layers of workers, with an estimated 300,000 to 500,000 stock accounts being opened every day. At the end of March, institutional investors such as banks accounted for just 23.3 percent of the total market capitalisation. The rest were small investors.

By May 10, the number of registered stock investors in China had passed 95 million. College students, housewives, taxi drivers and even Buddhist monks, not to mention businessmen and professionals, are all involved. The stock market is seen as the magic means for getting rich overnight. People are reportedly selling their homes, withdrawing pensions or loading up their credit cards with massive debts in order to gamble on shares.

An article posted on the Chinese version of the Asia Times web site on May 9, pointed out that almost 1 in 14 of the Chinese population is now a stock investor. A public servant in Guangzhou said 90 percent of his workmates were investing in stocks. “I also bought 20,000 yuan of shares. When it rises, I earn more in one day than my monthly pay,” he said.

Ma Chunhui, a media professor at Shenzhen University, conducted a survey, which found that 10 percent of first-year students at his campus had become stock investors. In fourth year, the percentage was 80 percent. “Increasingly the first thing people do when they go to work is turn on the computer and look at the stock market,” he said.

A number of analysts have described small investors on the share market as “mad”. But their behaviour is the lawful expression of the economic contradictions that the misnamed Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has unleashed with its unfettered market program. With low wages, rising prices and costly services such as education and health, many people have turned to the share market in the vain hope that it may provide them with a means of escape.

The stock exchange was abolished after the 1949 revolution and was only reinstated in the late 1980s as part of Beijing’s open embrace of capitalist relations. In the 1990s, however, even at the height of a speculative real estate bubble, the stock markets played a marginal economic role. The ups and downs of Chinese shares had no bearing at all on global financial markets.

The past few years have witnessed a dramatic reversal. To keep the yuan’s exchange rate low to assist exports, the Chinese central bank is now buying up to $500 billion in foreign currency a year, creating a huge money supply at home. In order to control excessive liquidity, the central bank has raised the reserve requirement on banks seven times and increased lending rates three times over the past year. But these measures have had little impact on the country’s investment bubble as the central authorities fear that a significant rise in interest rates will lead to business failures, higher unemployment and greater social unrest.

Real interest rates are very low—just 2.79 percent on one-year term bank deposits, less than this year’s inflation rate of more than 3 percent. The return on government bonds is also poor. Foreign investment is out of the question as the government maintains a tight control on foreign exchange and the outflow of domestic funds. As a result, large amounts of money have flooded into real estate and now into shares. Many working people see no avenue to increase their limited savings, other than by risking them on the share markets.

An editorial in the Financial Times warned: “A market that goes up 200 percent in less than 18 months, and trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of about 50 is not necessarily a bubble. But if it looks like a crocodile and grins like a crocodile, it is probably best to treat it as a crocodile, just in case. China’s stock market has inflated to a worrying level, and because of Chinese policy and the state of the Chinese economy it could go higher before it falls.”

The last collapse of the Chinese stock market in 2001 affected a relatively small layer of better off investors. This time, however, the social consequences could be on a far bigger scale, as the number of investors is rapidly approaching 100 million. Many of them could lose everything—their homes, savings and pensions—in a vicious lesson in capitalist economics.

The social and political consequences may well be explosive.

See Also:
Wild swings on Wall Street
[2 March 2007]
Global markets slide after China sell-off
[28 February 2007]
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Old 20th May 2007, 08:03 AM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

Well it won't take much to take IDNF offline, when they start to get excited about IDNs!

Fortunately, the Chinese Government think ahead. When they install new systems they don't install something that was inadequate 2 years ago. I bet you don't find two lane motorways in China.
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Old 20th May 2007, 08:36 AM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

They are going to have a big problem in Puxi, with 10-12 million people squeezed into less than one quarter the size of greater london, there is no space for motorlanes.

Imagine if the whole population of the England moves to Greater London. You need a city gov that is capable enough or the whole place breaks down.

Everyone in the pink area moves to the red spot.


Last edited by touchring; 20th May 2007 at 08:45 AM..
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Old 20th May 2007, 08:53 AM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten London.

If IDNing produces that much traffic, my first big sale will have to go towards a Big Daddy dedicated server!
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Old 20th May 2007, 09:03 AM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsinternet
If IDNing produces that much traffic, my first big sale will have to go towards a Big Daddy dedicated server!

I'm using a ev1server.net machine, costs only $99 a mth. I host my company website, a few other websites, and some domains.

Shanghai puxi does reveal good real estate investment opportunities.

London short of land? Wait till you should see Puxi. If you got the whole England moved to London, then tell me that London is short of land!

Last edited by touchring; 20th May 2007 at 09:11 AM..
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Old 20th May 2007, 09:30 AM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
I'm using a ev1server.net machine, costs only $99 a mth. I host my company website, a few other websites, and some domains.

Shanghai puxi does reveal good real estate investment opportunities.

London short of land? Wait till you should see Puxi. If you got the whole England moved to London, then tell me that London is short of land!
London is a lot bigger than people think. Greater London has an almost arbitrary boundary, but the real hinterland extends up to a hundred of miles beyond that. What I mean by hinterland is where people actually commute from for work each day.

Population densities are not that high in London, but already far too high for my liking.
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Old 20th May 2007, 09:48 AM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten London.

Then, send them over to Atlanta!



LONDON
Population (2005 est)
- City 9,200 (City of London)
- Density 8,215/sq mi (3,172/km²)
- Urban 8.5 million (GLUA)
- Metro 12-14 million
- Greater London 7.6 million
- Greater London Density 12,331/sq mi (4,761/km²)
Area
- City 1.00 sq mi (2.6 km²)
- Greater London 609 sq mi (1,577.3 km²)

ATLANTA
Population (2006)
- City 483,108
- Density 3,667.4/sq mi (1,416/km²)
- Urban 3,499,840
- Metro 5,138,223
Area
- City 132.4 sq mi (343.0 km²)
- Land 131.8 sq mi (341.2 km²)
- Water 0.7 sq mi (1.8 km²)
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Old 20th May 2007, 10:36 AM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

I thought we had already done that once.

By the look of things they must be procreating pretty well!

Actually, the population densities in London have little impact on me. I try to avoid going near the place. Success in my book is a measure of to what degree you can avoid such places.
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Old 20th May 2007, 11:29 AM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
I thought we had already done that once.

By the look of things they must be procreating pretty well!

Actually, the population densities in London have little impact on me. I try to avoid going near the place. Success in my book is a measure of to what degree you can avoid such places.
You are too funny! I think we kicked y'all out!

Not so much procreation, it's migration/immigration. Y'all are welcome back to the New South now.
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Old 20th May 2007, 12:19 PM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Actually, the population densities in London have little impact on me. I try to avoid going near the place. Success in my book is a measure of to what degree you can avoid such places.
Especially Heathrow. Never go to Heathrow unless your life depends on it, and even then try to find another way.

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Old 20th May 2007, 12:20 PM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
I thought we had already done that once.
By the look of things they must be procreating pretty well!
ROTFLOL
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Old 20th May 2007, 12:38 PM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsinternet
Then, send them over to Atlanta!

One thing i don't understand is how much of the people in the US comes from the UK?

Findings on wikipedia shows that the majority of european americans are german in ancestry:

Major components of the European segment of the United States population are descended from immigrants from Germany (19.2%), Ireland (10.8%), England (7.7%), Italy (5.6%), Scandinavia (3.7%) and Poland (3.2%) with many immigrants also coming from Slavic countries.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maps_of...can_ancestries
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Old 20th May 2007, 01:05 PM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten London.

People may claim German & Irish heritage to get a reduced price on beer at pubs. There are a lot more Irish pubs here than English pubs. And Oktoberfest is German, isn't it?

Ancestry is really not a big deal here. England, Scotland, Ireland, Germany.... Who can tell after a few generations?
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Old 20th May 2007, 01:12 PM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

Well looking at the Wikipedia Map the Civil War was fought mainly on racial lines, the South apparently being predominantly Norwegian. Can that really be correct?

Looking at the Map it would seem that German Migration was predominantly later into Mid-West.

It looks as though Outside New England our main claim to fame is providing the bloodstock for the Mormons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsinternet
People may claim German & Irish heritage to get a reduced price on beer at pubs. There are a lot more Irish pubs here than English pubs. And Oktoberfest is German, isn't it?

Ancestry is really not a big deal here. England, Scotland, Ireland, Germany.... Who can tell after a few generations?
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Old 20th May 2007, 01:45 PM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten London.

The Norwegians are up in the far north. Oddly, the broad strokes in this map are the pink in the Southwest (Mexican), the English in Utah, a whole lot of blue almost everywhere(German), the purple in the deep south (African American), and the ivory color in the deep south (American).

The people on the losing side in the US Civil War identify their ancestry as American and African American. Why? Who knows? Perhaps that is a strange side-effect of the rise of the New South.... Or they just don't know.... Check this out:

People of "American" ancestry are generally assumed to be of predominantly English, Scottish, or Welsh stock, though some are likely to be people of several different European ethnicities who are unable or unwilling to choose one. It is important however to realize that the census is based upon questionnaires and have been compiled from answers given by a sample group. Therefore the answers given will reflect what the individual knows about their ancestry. Unfortunately many US citizens do not know their ancestry entirely as well as would be desired hence a large proportion simply call themselves 'American' ancestry (not including Native Americans), or know that a part of their ancestry is Irish or at least has an Irish name and will therefore say 'Irish' as their ancestry. The only way to get a true picture of what the US ancestry is would be to do several hundred thousand genetic background analyses, which at the moment would be particularly expensive. Based upon last names however, the top 17 last names in the US are of British background - the top 5 being Smith, Johnson, Williams, Jones and Brown. Some of these names would have been adopted by black slaves from their slave masters. Also, two common German last names, Braun and Schmidt, are commonly anglicised into Brown and Smith. To add further weight, a World War 2 ethnic background of the US put the top four backgrounds as 36 million British (English, Scottish, Welsh), 32 million German, 15 million Irish and 10 million Italian. Of these four ethnic backgrounds, none committed any significant (and certainly not significant enough) immigration to the US to make up the difference, as a percentage, between the 2000 census and wartime statistics. These are obviously somewhat different from the latest census info. Which is more accurate, for the time in question, is in some debate. Many of the people from the countries which Americans descend from do not regard Americans as anything but Americans, in fact some are quite surprised when an American would call themselves Scottish or German for example as opposed to Scottish or German ancestry.

This is a different way of viewing it. Percentage of persons of Hispanic origins in the USA.

Article: http://www.iadb.org/exr/idbamerica/P...jul01p7-b.html

Map: http://www.census.gov/geo/www/mapGal...s/hispanic.jpg

Last edited by burnsinternet; 20th May 2007 at 02:24 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 20th May 2007, 05:12 PM
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Re: Shanghai stock mkt beating HK? Yesterday's news, Shanghai has already beaten Lon

Quote:
Originally Posted by jacksonm
Especially Heathrow. Never go to Heathrow unless your life depends on it, and even then try to find another way.

.
Easy to get to on the Tube though.
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