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Old 14th July 2007, 05:46 PM
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Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

This is a satellite image of the island of Singapore, it is almost totally built up, the green patches are military training area or water catchment reservoir.

Public roads take up 10% of all land area. Most people lived in apartments, and houses with gardens are almost fixed in supply, just like the number of LLL domains. 92% of citizens buy their own homes, there is no renting culture.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=e...&t=k&z=11&om=1

Yet housing prices can plunge 40% the next 5 years following the Asian financial crisis in 1997. During that same period of time, population increased from 3.5 to 4.4 million.

Just before the Asian financial crisis, the banks in Singapore are in better shape than the banks or mortgage companies in America. The singapore government regulates the banking industry with an iron hand, loans cannot exceed 80% of the valuation of the home, income proof slip like letters from the tax department are required for mortgage application.

Last edited by touchring; 14th July 2007 at 06:11 PM..
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Old 14th July 2007, 07:20 PM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

That was largely engineered by US financiers for financial gain.

Things have moved on. The next place that will be taken to the cleaners by International Money Lenders will be the US itself. The mystery over what happened to the Fort Knox gold will pale into insignificance.
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Old 14th July 2007, 07:29 PM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
That was largely engineered by US financiers for financial gain.

Things have moved on. The next place that will be taken to the cleaners by International Money Lenders will be the US itself. The mystery over what happened to the Fort Knox gold will pale into insignificance.

Arthur Anderson collapsed because of enron, can US investment bankers walk away from the mortgage bond frauds so easily? It will be the biggest financial scandal the world has seen since south pacific share scam - what was it?

Or maybe they are already sending the spoils out of the country. China is a good place to hide.
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Old 14th July 2007, 08:22 PM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Or maybe they are already sending the spoils out of the country. China is a good place to hide.
Here it is, IMO. Financial commentators have been talking about the housing bubble and coming bust for three years now. The profits are gone, likely into other speculative investments. It will be US taxpayers that will be left holding the bag on this one, similar to the S&L crisis of the '80s.

If Al Gore didn't invent the internet we'd probably still be suffering that recession.8)
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Old 14th July 2007, 09:23 PM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

lol RD cant wait for the USA to fall. Dont worry it wont be long.
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Old 15th July 2007, 12:42 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

$10 says they're getting ready to hide in Dubai with their buddies at Halliburton.
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Old 15th July 2007, 12:48 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

"Big Time"

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Old 15th July 2007, 01:39 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

Lol. I like you kids.
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Old 15th July 2007, 05:38 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

In the West... ummm... I know some Western countries where property prices are definitely not weaker (and much stronger than they were 5 years ago) - could even be considered a boom in those places if one looked at the last 30 years.

But, heah - West guess means America - haha (opps - had to add this as made me giggle).

Cheers all (and I do not expect replies to my post) - Asiaplay.
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Old 15th July 2007, 05:46 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

London prices are much stronger than anywhere in the US. In Rick's own words "London makes New York look like Nashville".

The UK is different. For the moment the economy is not under serious pressure. In London, there is a massive supply problem, which has been exacerbated due to it rise as a global centre, with massive immigration in all ranges including the billionaire class. If you look at which nationals buy in London, you will see a big tail off at the higher end where the percentage of US buyers drops markedly in favour of Europeans. London seems to be an affordability problem even for the US elite.
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Old 15th July 2007, 06:56 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaplay
In the West... ummm... I know some Western countries where property prices are definitely not weaker (and much stronger than they were 5 years ago) - could even be considered a boom in those places if one looked at the last 30 years.

But, heah - West guess means America - haha (opps - had to add this as made me giggle).

Cheers all (and I do not expect replies to my post) - Asiaplay.

Here's a reply. Property can only be an investment when bought at distressed prices, i.e. SAR HK birdflu, 1997 Asian financial crisis, 1987 world economic recession.

The Feds have managed to remove cycles from american housing by printing money whenever the demand slows down, but eventually law of physics will still apply, what goes up must come down, and the higher it goes and longer it stays up, the harder it will fall.

The show for american real estate has barely began.

Now, monetary policy cannot save american housing - print more money, the money is risk becoming worthless. Already japan has to pay yen for Iranian oil. The situation for the dollar is worsening by the day.

If the dollar suddenly devalues, some america banks can fall - they borrowed trillions in yen. Americans will rush to the banks to withdraw their deposits. A repeat of the Asian financial crisis, but at a scale 10 times larger.

By the time it reaches this stage, not only the subprime market will be affected, but even fully owned homes will flood the market as entreprenuers rush to liquidate needed cashflow for their precious businesses.

Last edited by touchring; 15th July 2007 at 07:23 AM..
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Old 15th July 2007, 07:09 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Here's a reply. Property can only be an investment when bought at distressed prices, i.e. SAR HK birdflu, 1997 Asian financial crisis, 1987 world economic recession.
This is not really true unless you are a speculator with very high expectations of ROI.

The commonly held view that Residential Property investment is a sure fire winner will, however, prove false.

Whilst they are not making any more land, most real estate languishes around in a fairly unproductive state. It ability to generate a good ROI is therefore severely limited.

Current values are primarily driven by historically low interest rates, due to low inflation rates which have been underpinned by cheap production from China. Peoples faith in Governments, Companies and Insurance firms to make adequate provision for their old age has been severely shaken. Many have sought to secure their future by investment in tangible assets that they think they understand. How little they know!

From this point to the bottom real estate will be the worst investment you could ever make and it will almost certainly be the trigger for the unravelling of the Bush economic miracle. Fears, however, that this will plunge the World into recession are, however, being discounted by many influential economists. There is a growing realisation that the US economy just isn't that important anymore.
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Old 15th July 2007, 07:19 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

hehe - distressed prices - sounds like "Forced IDN sale as can not afford renewal fees"... auction takers line up and hope is worth buying for a dollar...

Truth is either at distressed prices or when an owner is blind to it's true value (is why some people here get IDN bargains and others pay what could be considered too much).

Yeah - Hong Kong property... interesting thing that exists here and in China, is that people always want to buy a "new" house (rather than 2nd hand - the 2nd hand market is still pretty well dead in places like Shanghai & Beijing - of course will change in a short time as land runs out etc.)...
Also of course are there are a few minor exceptions to this "new is best" rule, but wow, this trend is very different to where I come from - where age is seen to add character.
Also SARS - hard to buy property when hiding inside - hahaa - glad that period is gone (was like is that kid caring a hidden machine gun)... however, some friends made their business on buying out the business they were in during that period (proven losses, verse future profits and risk type scenario).

Otherwise - HK property prices - linked more than almost any country to the economy (for Rhys - good link is also amount of tips in bathroom at nightclubs - lol)... people here stop spending on anything that is not necessity, whenever the share market drops (even if they have the same billions in the bank... hence why the large effect / bargains at crisis times).
My biggest fear with any type of short term investment in real estate (be it property or IDNs) is the war or health crisis factors we all do not know - mid perhaps and long-term however, these are likely to be of little effect... but will I still be alive in the longer term - umm).

Cheers - Asiaplay (damn this is off the topic of the original post - lol)
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Old 15th July 2007, 07:33 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaplay
My biggest fear with any type of short term investment in real estate (be it property or IDNs) is the war or health crisis factors we all do not know - mid perhaps and long-term however, these are likely to be of little effect... but will I still be alive in the longer term - umm).

Cheers - Asiaplay (damn this is off the topic of the original post - lol)

SARS was only a 3 mth thing, but those who dared to make the plunge, whether in the stock market or buy over retail businesses, as you said, are very handsomely rewarded by today. My folks got sick from psychological stress during this period, i was in no mood to think about investment then. :-(

Btw, China was barely affected economically. Just to show the momentum of this engine can't be stopped so easily. Toronto was ravaged. So, ironically, the PLA will prove useful when it comes to containing such epidemic disasters.
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Old 15th July 2007, 08:46 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

True - luckily we all learned from this... and China now does treat these things with the respect they should be doing...

Of interest for SARS they knew about it at high levels, 3 months before it even hit HK - off the record comment of course (via undisclosed sources)... but this change in approach to these issues itself is a big relief.

Also agree, the PLA or other authorities can help control problems like this - but nice thing is that people in China still have respect for their fellow neighbour generally - and also assist in these things being controlled (for example we didn't see anyone running away from hospitals like we did in some other parts of Asia).

Contrary to what I suspect a lot of those outside China think, the ethics base of the average Chinese individual, regarding an individuals rights is stronger than that in most countries (ethically on a person's rights, they are great - which is interesting given the alternative approach often taken to business ethics).

I deepened a couple of friendships, through my warnings to them on the issue to friends (which they laughed at, at the time I said)... however after and once China followed up with the unprecedented 1st ever cancellation of the 2nd largest public holiday in China, they very much appreciated I had said something.
Unfortunately no direct financial investment gains myself either though - sigh lol (takes big money to make big money as they say).
Yes - I can understand the psychological issues of the time all too well (good thing though is that it sure is well past for your parents now)

Also agree - the bounce back even of a North / South incident or big health issue is likely to be very fast... people here are used to hardship and the realities of making a better tomorrow (the economic term we all know "no free lunch" is a reality which drives things forward).
I am sure they would focus and rebuild faster than we could blink (even if only half the population was left to do so - scary thought).

Cheers - Asiaplay
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Old 15th July 2007, 09:01 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

I've no doubts for the resilience in China to any sort of disaster, economic, political or diease - one must know china is the only single empire that persisted from anquity to today. Formed, disintegrated, formed again, disintegrated, over and over again dozens of times.
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Old 15th July 2007, 09:43 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

I'm really only taking notes here, but...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
The commonly held view that Residential Property investment is a sure fire winner will, however, prove false.
For at least the past two years (they started late, IMO), US commentary has shied away from this perspective (that residential property is a sure fire winner).

Reuters, DJ, Bloomberg, right down to NPR has held the line that real estate prices were rising too fast. It was late '05 that we started seeing widespread speculation that there might be a crash and this is when the word "bubble" emerged in the regular news. There have been occasional weekly commentaries that "this time it's different," or "it's a local problem," but the majors seem to have been preparing for a crash for at least eighteen months, and they have staved it as long as they could.

The fact that it hasn't happened yet has them speculating, wildly at times, that it is eminent, that it will take place between, say, september and february, then things will pick up speed again, and we won't feel a thing.

I hold on to the capitalist's creed: wait until there's a crisis, then buy.

Bottom line: Dow's way up, even excluding AA, meaning that money's coming from somewhere, probably institutional REIT bailouts.

There are going to be some bargains in the coming years.

Oh, and Asiaplay's comment about second-hand homes not selling in Hong Kong resonates here in the Poconos. Lovely, well-built cottages have sat on the market and dropped in price by 20-30% in some cases, while new home costs have only risen, and highway traffic has only increased with the oversized loads, carrying mobile homes to their new lots.

I know because I'm a renter. But not for long.
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Old 15th July 2007, 09:50 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by clipper
Oh, and Asiaplay's comment about second-hand homes not selling in Hong Kong resonates here in the Poconos. Lovely, well-built cottages have sat on the market and dropped in price by 20-30% in some cases, while new home costs have only risen, and highway traffic has only increased with the oversized loads, carrying mobile homes to their new lots.

I know because I'm a renter. But not for long.

Might be something to do with speculation - for new homes, you pay only a tiny deposit, and by the time you need to pay the balance - 2-3 years later, you would flip for a profit. Small deposit earn big money, that's how people can earn a million dollars by putting in only $100,000.

Whereas for for existing homes, you need to pay in full upon sale completion, a few weeks after purchase.

At the moment, people are buying for speculation and not for renting or long term investment, so it doesn't matter how much the unit costs as long as there is a bank willing to finance the purchase - as is the case in London right now.

I read somewhere during the height of the bubble in japan, space in Ginza can go for $100,000 a sq foot, or was it $70,000? Anyway, just to show the madness.

Last edited by touchring; 15th July 2007 at 09:56 AM..
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Old 15th July 2007, 10:44 AM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

When the cash starts to flow, I shall be piling into traditional real estate, but not in the UK. At least, not unless there is a major collapse.
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Old 15th July 2007, 01:36 PM
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Re: Real estate bubble in West similar to before Asian financial crisis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
When the cash starts to flow, I shall be piling into traditional real estate, but not in the UK. At least, not unless there is a major collapse.

Shanghai real estate will be a good bet, but timing will be a tricky issue.

They have not gone up as much as London and New York or even Hong Kong, but i think the long term prospect is very positive - there's no reason why a Hong Kong apartment should cost more than 20 times of a high end Shanghai condo when the real action is in Shanghai. The difference is in the weak property rights laws, difficulty and limit on financing, poor international market access, government crackdown, etc, but all which will have to change over time and with that, the appreciation can be tremendous.

Last edited by touchring; 15th July 2007 at 02:54 PM..
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