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Old 15th July 2007, 04:43 PM
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When we started, China was behind UK, now beating Germany.

When we started late 2005, China was behind UK, now going to beat Germany.

2-years ago we are expecting IE7 auto, now, it's still not here yet! Seems to me that China is growing faster than Chinese IDNs! How ironical? :o



http://www.guardian.co.uk/china/stor...694832,00.html

January 26, 2006 - China overtakes UK with Japan and Germany in its sights

Jonathan Watts in Beijing
The Guardian

China's economic juggernaut maintained its breakneck momentum last year with a 9.9% growth surge that almost certainly took it past Britain to become the world's fourth-biggest economy. Despite government efforts to slow the pace of investment and cool an overheated property sector, official statistics released yesterday showed economic expansion in 2005 was only a fraction behind the 10.1% notched up in 2004.

China's GDP is now 18.2 trillion yuan (£1.3 trillion), which - depending on a slight fluctuation in exchange rates - surpasses estimates for Britain and France last year. The United States, Japan and Germany are considerably bigger, but China is catching up fast. While other leading economies would be happy with 4% growth this year, China is expected to more than double that.

Despite the spectacular numbers, analysts believe the government has - if anything - underestimated output. Statistics in this vast, largely unregulated and often secretive country are notoriously unreliable. Last month, officials announced the economy was 16.8% bigger than previously thought because of hidden consumption and unreported income.

As well as dubious measurements, Beijing's ability to control the pace of growth is in doubt. For the past three years, expansion has considerably overshot official targets. Exports - which are more carefully monitored than domestic business activity - jumped by 30% in 2005, despite worsening trade frictions with the US and Europe. Investment in construction and factories leapt 25%, raising fresh concerns of overheating. The falling price of cars and steel suggest there is already over-capacity in these sectors.

The majority of China's 1.3 billion population is poor by western standards. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 26 years of near double-digit growth have taken the average income to $1,700, (£950) making the country richer than Morocco, but far behind Europe, Japan and the United States.




http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070715...p/chinaeconomy

China's roaring economy set to overtake Germany

by Benjamin MorganSun Jul 15, 1:39 AM ET

China's economy grew so rapidly in the first half of 2007 that it is likely to overtake Germany as the world's third-largest by the end of this year, analysts say.

The release Wednesday of January to June figures for Asia's second biggest economy will provide fresh evidence that Beijing's economic braking measures have had little effect.

China's sizzling economy expanded even faster than originally thought last year, with the government revising 2006 growth domestic product (GDP) to 11.1 percent from 10.7 percent.

Data released by China's statistics bureau last week showed the economy was worth 21.09 trillion yuan in 2006, about 2.65 trillion dollars based on last year's average exchange rate of 7.97 yuan to the dollar.

The revision puts China in striking distance of Europe's largest economy within months.

"With this upward revision, it is highly likely that China will bypass Germany to become the third-largest economy in the world in current US dollar terms by the end of this year," said Hong Liang, an economist at Goldman Sachs.

According to the World Bank, Germany's economy was worth 2.9 trillion dollars at the end of 2006.

Economists expect GDP in the second quarter to near or equal its breathtaking January to March pace of 11.1 percent growth.

JPMorgan Chase Bank economist Wang Qian put the second-quarter acceleration at 10.6 percent, and said it would pick up speed in the second half of the year.

"We don’t see any sector of the economy slowing down. It’s firing on all cylinders," said Wang.

The torrid pace of development means that China's economic czars will once again have to devise fresh ways to prevent the export powerhouse from the kind of overheating that could trigger a slide into financial crisis.

Regulators have already taken this year introduced a slew of piecemeal administrative measures to slow the economy, including two interest rate hikes, five increases in bank reserve requirements and new export curbs.

Exports, one of Beijing's biggest headaches given the friction it causes with its two largest trade partners, the European Union and the United States, have continued to flood international markets.

The widening trade gap is on route to becoming the globe's largest ever after Beijing announced last week that its surplus had jumped more than 85 percent in June to 26.91 billion dollars.

Although the June figure was partly due to factories rushing to beat new curbs on exports that took effect July 1, the huge global demand for Chinese goods means the surplus will expand through the rest of the year, analysts said.

"China has become the world's factory for manufactured consumer goods," said Qu Hongbin, a senior economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.

"If global consumer demand remains then Chinese exports will grow. There is not a lot that government policy can do about that."

Washington and Brussels believe one step to staunching the tide of Chinese goods would be greater appreciation in the currency, which trade partners say is artificially low and boosts China's business competitiveness.

But China's autocratic leadership fears that could destabilise its financial system, making such a step highly unlikely, in keeping with the government's repeated position of allowing the yuan to rise slowly.

Earlier this month the nation's top economic planner said China had to further tighten macroeconomic controls in the second half in the face of growing financial risks.

"The trend is of an economy that is moving from a bias of fast growth to overheating," said a research arm of the National Development and Reform Commission.

Li Huiyong, chief analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities in Shanghai, said the government had to get cracking.

"At the moment, there is no obvious change to the overheated economy, with inflation and investment (levels) likely to jump," said Li.

"Under such circumstances, the major task is to prevent further overheating and strengthen controlling measures."

Last edited by touchring; 15th July 2007 at 04:49 PM..
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Old 15th July 2007, 05:06 PM
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Re: When we started, China was behind UK, now beating Germany.

I don't think they have a hope in hell of controlling the growth. Trying to slow the growth rate down would be a bit like herding cats. China is just TOO BIG to be able to hold it back.
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Old 15th July 2007, 06:20 PM
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Re: When we started, China was behind UK, now beating Germany.

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Originally Posted by Drewbert
I don't think they have a hope in hell of controlling the growth. Trying to slow the growth rate down would be a bit like herding cats. China is just TOO BIG to be able to hold it back.
Quite correct. They are not able to measure it effectively let alone control it.

Overheating is unlikely. Inflation makes you uncompetitive which leads to a tail off in investment. China can continue growing at breakneck speed for another decade before there is the slightest risk of it becoming uncompetitive with the US or Europe. India is the biggest risk, and frankly they are in much the same boat.

I put a market down sometime ago for overtaking the US by 2015. That is looking pretty good!
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Old 16th July 2007, 12:07 AM
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Re: When we started, China was behind UK, now beating Germany.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Quite correct. They are not able to measure it effectively let alone control it.

Overheating is unlikely. Inflation makes you uncompetitive which leads to a tail off in investment. China can continue growing at breakneck speed for another decade before there is the slightest risk of it becoming uncompetitive with the US or Europe. India is the biggest risk, and frankly they are in much the same boat.

I put a market down sometime ago for overtaking the US by 2015. That is looking pretty good!
2015 - way too early........ The U.S. is powerful and our economy is booming. NYC is no Nashville...

I knew China was bound to pass the UK.... bout time for a country only really known for "paddington bear"
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Old 16th July 2007, 02:46 AM
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Re: When we started, China was behind UK, now beating Germany.

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Originally Posted by IDNCowboy
2015 - way too early........ The U.S. is powerful and our economy is booming. NYC is no Nashville...

I knew China was bound to pass the UK.... bout time for a country only really known for "paddington bear"

The stats in china is not reliable, we're not sure where they stand today.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, there is big consumption, much bigger than japan from what i see on the ground in major chinese cities even on a per capita basis (not in terms of dollar value - since goods/services are super X in japan), but in terms of the amount of goods and services consumed per person.

Thus partly explains the rising cost of commodities worldwide. The impact on commodities is more than what just published economic figures can alone explain. Copper, iron all surging, even increased mining activities can't keep up with the surge in consumption.

Last edited by touchring; 16th July 2007 at 02:51 AM..
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Old 16th July 2007, 05:22 AM
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Re: When we started, China was behind UK, now beating Germany.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDNCowboy
2015 - way too early........ The U.S. is powerful and our economy is booming. NYC is no Nashville...

I knew China was bound to pass the UK.... bout time for a country only really known for "paddington bear"
The UK is a country that has now adapted well to it new position in the World, and is probably the most successful of the larger Western Economies. The US would do well to use it at as a role model. There are a lot of parallels. But you won't find the answers in Paddington Bear. That just underlines the kind of daft stereotypes that underpin US thinking.
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