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View Poll Results: When do you think that China will supercede the US as the World's largest economy
As early as 2015 0 0%
Before 2020 6 40.00%
Not until 2025 3 20.00%
Not until 2030 4 26.67%
Not until 2040 1 6.67%
Not until 2050 1 6.67%
Voters: 15. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 16th July 2007, 11:58 AM
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When will China outstrip the US?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDNCowboy
2015 - way too early........ The U.S. is powerful and our economy is booming. NYC is no Nashville...

I knew China was bound to pass the UK.... bout time for a country only really known for "paddington bear"
When will China outstrip the US economically. Well, it depends what you measure and how you measure it, but how about a Poll to decide when people think the US will effectively become number two.

This should help:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...4C77B142A0C%7D

<<By another measure known as purchasing-power parity, China is already the world's second-biggest economy. the Journal said. If exchange rates are adjusted to equalize the cost of goods in different countries, then China's total output was worth $10 trillion last year, according to estimates by the IMF cited by the Journal.
That eclipses Japan's $4.2 trillion and Germany's $2.6 trillion, and is hot on the heels of the U.S.'s $13 trillion.>>
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Old 16th July 2007, 12:42 PM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Assuming that the US does not start start fighting with Russia over the terror war, then, latest by 2030.
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Old 16th July 2007, 01:00 PM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Assuming that the US does not start start fighting with Russia over the terror war, then, latest by 2030.
If the US does not build some sustainable relationships to ensure its energy supplies with some of the real power brokers, its economy is going to be all washed up long before 2030.

So far, it has screwed up with Iran and Venezuala. Its policy in Iraq is looking a little dubious to say the least.

It is doing very well with a potentially unstable regime in Saudi, but don't forget that that it was the support of a puppet regime in Iran that caused most of the problems there.

It has done much better with Libya, who seems to have scratched the US off its Pyriah State list.

So what about Russia. Well it is probably a mute point as most of its exports are likely to China and Europe, with India no doubt competing hard for supplies form the former Soviet Central Asia. It is doubtful whether the US would get much of a look in anyway.

Are they capable of waging war against Russia? Well much as Russia's ability to project military might is largely spent, along probably with the political desire to do so, it is unlikely that the US could greatly intimidate a state with Russia's resources, when they are struggling to keep order in Afghanistan even with International support.
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Old 16th July 2007, 01:21 PM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Are they capable of waging war against Russia? Well much as Russia's ability to project military might is largely spent, along probably with the political desire to do so, it is unlikely that the US could greatly intimidate a state with Russia's resources, when they are struggling to keep order in Afghanistan even with International support.
Don't forget that the russians got their butt kicked by an afghan resistance led by a 2 meter tall man with 150 bulldozers he stole from the family business along with several hundred million USD of his own inheritance cash - propped up with intel by the US, of course.

All in all, I never really believed that the US and Soviet Union would go to war with each other, although there are a lot of tales about the nuke which almost accidentally got fired and the has-been ex-georgian president who prevented it when he was a soviet missle commander...

I am fascinated by politics, there is always more than meets the eye, but money is always at the bottom of it all.

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Old 16th July 2007, 03:29 PM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jacksonm
Don't forget that the russians got their butt kicked by an afghan resistance led by a 2 meter tall man with 150 bulldozers he stole from the family business along with several hundred million USD of his own inheritance cash - propped up with intel by the US, of course.

All in all, I never really believed that the US and Soviet Union would go to war with each other, although there are a lot of tales about the nuke which almost accidentally got fired and the has-been ex-georgian president who prevented it when he was a soviet missle commander...

I am fascinated by politics, there is always more than meets the eye, but money is always at the bottom of it all.

.

No, but from what i read on the media the Russian government is trying to squeeze every cent out of europe for energy, while sending assasins all over the continent. i think this is just the beginning.
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Old 16th July 2007, 05:09 PM
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Talking Re: When will China outstrip the US?

HAHAA - CRACK ME UP... YA MUST BE BORED TODAY RUBBER DUCK (or has one of those friends from over the big sea annoyed you more than normally)... funny topic... god knows when... when will Chinese be the international trade language or online language (or is it already)?

... if growth keeps going... well be before I am dead... that will be interesting - but, dare say, by then even I can not handle the nationalism goes with it and will have returned to the small piece of paradise I hail from (wondering why and why and why...).

Cheers - but is an interesting topic I agree - Asiaedge...

PS: Thank god there are no Shanghai hot-heads in our forum or this posting would go on until well after I am dead...
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Old 16th July 2007, 05:23 PM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Let me put it another way.

How long is it going to be before a beer in Shanghai cost the same as one in Hong Kong?
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Old 16th July 2007, 05:46 PM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Let me put it another way.

How long is it going to be before a beer in Shanghai cost the same as one in Hong Kong?

I remembered the cost in shanghai depends on where you buy the stuff from. There are places for expats and wealthy shanghai residents, and there are places for office workers that earn $200 a mth. In developing countries, the income divide is very big.

I think the city people in china generally live well, especially the middle class. A Chinese city professional working in a large private company will live a much better life than a japanese worker in Tokyo. Day job knocks off at 6pm, plus side business. Those in sales can earn a lot of money. During holidays travel to the countryside where everything is dirt cheap by chinese city standards. When they need a nanny for their kids during the day, they can hire some from the countryside. Thus GDP figures are not a good gauge at all.

Last edited by touchring; 16th July 2007 at 05:58 PM..
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Old 16th July 2007, 05:58 PM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
I remembered the cost in shanghai depends on where you buy the stuff from. There are places for expats and wealthy shanghai residents, and there are places for office workers that earn $200 a mth. In developing countries, the income divide is very big.

I think the city people in china generally live well, especially the middle class. A Chinese city professional working in a large private company will live a much better life than a japanese worker in Tokyo. Day job knocks off at 6pm, plus side business. Those in sales can earn a lot of money. During holidays travel to the countryside where everything is dirt cheap by chinese city standards. Thus GDP figures are not a good gauge at all.
what can i rent in china for $5/month :P

if some people are making $200/mo there
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Old 16th July 2007, 06:08 PM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDNCowboy
what can i rent in china for $5/month :P

if some people are making $200/mo there

My business associate's driver earned $200 a mth. I think he lives in the suburb - minhang district, very far from shanghai city center. He also gets a lot of tips from people he drives, can be as much as half of his wage. The native shanghainese are very proud people, even for a chaueffer.

There are people that earn little, and there are just as many that earn a lot of money. Shanghai is an extremely fast city, it will beat hong kong, and even tokyo eventually - in fact, prior to WWII, it was the most important asian city.

Last edited by touchring; 16th July 2007 at 06:14 PM..
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Old 16th July 2007, 06:35 PM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Rubber duck... dare I say... for modern style bars, discos and night clubs (places most westerners would choose to drink and most young Big city locals as well).. in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Beijing (also in more Western style micro breweries or such like in tier 3 cities in China - the answer is TONIGHT... two to three years ago even they matched Hong Kong prices (of course this is for the "import" brands... like that famous German beer "blue girl", which are actually made in China and not even heard of where they come / are meant to have been imported from on the whole).

For the local river side night spots I might choose (places where yahoo boys might worry about the hygiene level - but smile at the bill that they could present back for expenses claims) - the price will always be cheap (cheaper than good tea is even now...
sideline.... when I studied in Beijing a large bottle of beer delivered to the doorstep was US$ 8 to 10 cents (and bottled water was US$ 24 to 40 cents, a little walk down the road) - alas the balance for this has changed dramatically as well now over the last few years... however, I still do from time to time, wonder where the water used in beer production came from - lol).

On this beer scale - we are there TODAY / YESTERDAY... so agree, if is up to America it only will be more than quite fast (however, I suspect that more than just America does not want to see China in number 2 place tomorrow - including your immediate next door neighbours, over the fence or brick wall)... therefore I predict that it will be a little longer than this.

No offence intended - but USA can always follow the UK idea and stick to a currency that they can value however they want to (personally think that if the UK was using the Euro today, life and the exchange rate would not be anywhere near the same) - point therefore is, the money market is made and corrupted by allies - this will slow the China trend down quiet a lot.

Perhaps.... the smartest thing China did / has done to counteract this effect - was / is having joining the WTO (I just hope that there are enough level headed members in that organization for it to not change it's perspective when they realise, that what you are suggesting, will become a reality before their kids perhaps graduate and definitely before their kids retire).

Alas no worries... quality of life is the major measure of wealth and not an exchange rate... therefore those living in nice rural communities, with ample apples and vegetables and a clear night sky to see the Big Dipper or Southern Cross, can still smile (while those working until midnight getting richer so they can holiday overseas in those locations), while having more assets on paper... will never enjoy the same relaxed lives (life is a balance).

Cheers - Asiaplay

PS: touchring - do I spot a touch of SH heritage here or just a unbiased acceptance of a painful short term reality for the Chinese financial markets ... another interesting story, my Chinese teacher back home, one day showed me a book and told me she used to bounce in the eye patched SH guys knee as a kid... later I realised he was the financial tycoon's / quassi triad leader of SH who controlled the the SH share market with every breath he breathed... history is an interesting thing).

Last edited by Asiaplay; 16th July 2007 at 06:51 PM..
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Old 17th July 2007, 01:37 AM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Agree! For bars, discos, night clubs..., no place can compare with the ones in China's big cities.

I drink "blue girl" when I am in China.

China's purchasing power is much bigger than you think, and China's economy is much bigger than you can measure.
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Old 17th July 2007, 03:13 AM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

And sometimes you think that China is the most developed country already.
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Old 17th July 2007, 05:25 AM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Giant
Agree! For bars, discos, night clubs..., no place can compare with the ones in China's big cities.

I drink "blue girl" when I am in China.

China's purchasing power is much bigger than you think, and China's economy is much bigger than you can measure.
I think the measure of what counts as GDP in China is still very narrow.

It all comes down to how much you think individuals time is worth multiplied by the number of people.

That is primarily about skills and productivity and this eventually reflects in the value of the currency.

PPP attempts to measure the size of the real economy. Many, indeed most discount this way of measuring things, but if anything it may still you less than the total picture as developing countries have a much bigger informal economy.

It all depends what you count. A large part of the US economy is tied up in legal fees. Ultimately, how do these impact on the countries economy. Should you add them? or indeed should we really be taking them away?

The food industry is major part of the US economy, but everyone gets fed in China and eating out is not such a rare event. Most people would agree that Chinese is more interesting, despite the food scares. So how exactly does the US manage to pile its chips high on this one, when China counts very little.

It all just goes to show that most economic statistic are no more than that! They are useful indicators, but invariably just plain wrong!
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Old 17th July 2007, 06:42 AM
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Re: When will China outstrip the US?

It is difficult to explain, you need to make a trip to 2 places to know:

1. Shanghai.
2. The countryside, and the contrast with the major cities.

Also, I went to Tokyo, i am not impressed, yes everything is impecably clean and nicely made, perfect, people walk on the streets like regimented soldiers, but that's about it!

I went to Shanghai, the streets are reasonably clean, people and buildings are more orderly as compared to other chinese cities, but everyone, even the driver is a businessman and opportunist, i am impressed by the economic activity and consumption power.

Isn't Japan more advanced than China, many times the GDP? Tokyo had been capitalist since the meiji restoration, Shanghai, only for the last 15 years. So why the difference?

I don't know how to explain since i don't know japanese culture well, i think Chinastar might know better.

Last edited by touchring; 17th July 2007 at 06:56 AM..
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