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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 26th July 2007, 09:47 PM
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US Stocks take a tumble...

Score 1 for Touchring, Score 0 for Wall Street

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070726/wall_street.html?

QUOTE FROM ARTICLE:
"Investors who had been able for months to largely shrug off discomfort about subprime mortgage
problems and a more difficult environment for corporate borrowing finally decided it was time to sell"
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Old 26th July 2007, 10:31 PM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

FTSE 100 6251.2 down -203.10
Dax 7509.0 down -183.59
Cac 40 5675.1 down -162.06
Dow Jones 13473.6 down -311.50
Nasdaq 2599.3 down -48.83
S&P 500 1482.7 down -35.43
BBC Global 30 5771.0 down -136.53

Worryingly Touchring and I have been in agreement for sometime on this.
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Old 27th July 2007, 12:30 AM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

Of course it's down. Didnt it just hit an all time high?
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Old 27th July 2007, 02:18 AM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

I created another thread on fengshui predictions made early this year (before chinese new year). I don't exactly believe entirely, but i shall be watching to see if they do turn true. Most predictions will say 2007 is a "topping" year with signs fo weakness coming towards the year end,

http://www.idnforums.com/forums/1234...-fire-pig.html

Last edited by touchring; 27th July 2007 at 02:42 AM..
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Old 27th July 2007, 10:16 PM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

Touchring and RD 2, Wall Street 0

Adding to yesterdays news...

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street extended its steep decline Friday, propelling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 500 points over two days after investors gave in to mounting concerns that borrowing costs would climb for both companies and homeowners. It was the worst week for the Dow and the Standard & Poor's 500 index in five years.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070727/wall_street.html?.v=58
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Old 28th July 2007, 05:16 PM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
Touchring and RD 2, Wall Street 0

Adding to yesterdays news...

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street extended its steep decline Friday, propelling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 500 points over two days after investors gave in to mounting concerns that borrowing costs would climb for both companies and homeowners. It was the worst week for the Dow and the Standard & Poor's 500 index in five years.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070727/wall_street.html?.v=58

Didn't you guys read The Investor's Mind? So the smart money have already moved out. :o

Thursday, July 19 th, regarding our latest issue of The Investor's Mind :

“We are releasing this month's Investor's Mind early because a variety of technical indicators are pointing to an end to the bull market run that began in the fall of 2002. I thought it important to release this piece on three high-level financial meetings that have taken place over the last few months, which I believe make it clear that those at the top of the money game have known for some time that the end of this period will bring massive shifts to the global capital markets.”
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Old 28th July 2007, 05:22 PM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

The Duck on Paulson:

Quote:
The second is Paulson talking absolute bollocks:

<<<In his first public comments since taking the post he also signalled he would stick to the strong dollar policy of his predecessor John Snow.

He also echoed Mr Snow's criticism of China's monetary policy.

The US has long attacked China for failing to loosen its ties on the yuan, claiming that it fixes its exchange rate at an unfair level - a move that allows the country to supply low cost exports.

"The Chinese need to show more flexibility with their currency," Mr Paulson told CNBC. >>>
http://www.idnforums.com/forums/5572...hlight=Paulson
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Old 28th July 2007, 05:45 PM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
In one breath they are saying that that need to keep the dollar strong to make imports affordable and keep inflation down and in the next they are condemning China for helping them do just that.

Ironical, yes. But if you think about it, it's not surprising.

A heroin addict craves for the next shot, but yet hates it for what it has done to him. It's a love and hate relationship. You need it, but hate it because you know you depend on it. But unlike the drug addict, who needs to mug to get the cash to buy the next shot, the US can continue printing money.
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Old 28th July 2007, 05:50 PM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Ironical, yes. But if you think about it, it's not surprising.

A heroin addict craves for the next shot, but yet hates it for what it has done to him. It's a love and hate relationship. You need it, but hate it because you know you depend on it. But unlike the drug addict, who needs to mug to get the cash to buy the next shot, the US can continue printing money.
Not if they want to keep the privileged position of the World's Reserve Currency they cannot. Mind you they probably kissed that one good buy a long time ago.

It can only be a matter of time before the custom of pricing commodities in dollars is kissed goodbye too. Can you really see China continuing to have Oil contracts with Russia priced in US dollars? I think not.
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Old 28th July 2007, 06:29 PM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Not if they want to keep the privileged position of the World's Reserve Currency they cannot. Mind you they probably kissed that one good buy a long time ago.

I thought of this a long time ago, actually, it might still not be too late to cure this cancer, just start raising interest rates again. Can't they? Like the 1970s when interest rates went up to 10%.
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Old 28th July 2007, 07:20 PM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
I thought of this a long time ago, actually, it might still not be too late to cure this cancer, just start raising interest rates again. Can't they? Like the 1970s when interest rates went up to 10%.
No they can't. If they push interest rates much higher the US economy will slow big time and that is not acceptable in the run up to an election year, when they have to con everyone into thinking that everything in the garden is rosy.
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Old 29th July 2007, 08:23 AM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
No they can't. If they push interest rates much higher the US economy will slow big time and that is not acceptable in the run up to an election year, when they have to con everyone into thinking that everything in the garden is rosy.

If the dollar does loses its reserve currency status, it will mean an al qaeda win because the fight has always been dollar for oil. The US can buy oil from the middle east for free because it can print dollar at zero cost.

If one by one the middle east countries start asking for yen or euro, it will mean the US has to start paying for oil!

Now the question is if the dollar for free policy can last till 2009 without causing a major crash?

Meanwhile, some viewpoints from an Asian fund manager:

Quote:

Fund manager comments on recently dow falls:

Simply, it look like the end of a bull and the beginning of a bear, like it or not.
US, being the world biggest trade partner, will definately cause a big stir.
after that, China will be ready to take over the top position...

However, despite all the risk now surfacing in the market, the biggest risk of all after the US subprime is the inflation.

US is making RMB stronger and like wat ming, another forummer says, is not unlike asking the shop to sell you items at a higher price. And that leads to higher inflation.
Add on to the high inflation going on now in China, who has mentioned that they are likely to raise interest rates more than once for the rest of this year(sounds a bit like fed when greenspan started a series of interest rate increases earlier?), it is time to look out.

New Zealand has raised interest rates, China did that a few times this year already, Japan has warn of interest rates increases soon(although yet to take action), Europe has raised interest rates, US Fed is in limbo, India has raised interest rates, i am not too sure abt Latin America and Middle East.

Inflation + Credit Crunch is going to bring recession to the world, US most impacted.

What the world has been through is 1) low inflation, low growth, 2) low inflation high growth, 3) high inflation, high growth, and it could be that we are near 4)high inflation, low growth, maybe the worst of all.

To end it all, "it is not how bad it is going to be, it is how prepared u are going to be".


Question:

Another risk, perhaps is protectionism in the US Congress against China's imports is getting stronger each day. I'm afraid that a trade war between US and China will be devastating to China; and EU wouldn't just stand idle, the protectionism sentiment will drive EU to "do something" similar to what the US is doing to China, and that spells disaster for China.

Is China going to appreciate their RMB value faster than expected? In fact their banking system is very weak, the Chinese government wouldn't want to risk a major shock to their economy and in my opinion the RMB wouldn't appreciate as fast as what the US and EU are hoping.

Anyway I see more troubles ahead for China after their 2008 Olympics.


Fund manager reply:

I tend to look from a different point of view.
The way i see it, yes, a strengthening will hurt China, but what ppl do not see is that China is more than capable to handling that pain,
but the main point is, excessive strengthening of RMB will hurt US, Euro and world trade a lot more.
Y?
like i mentioned before, asking China to strengthen RMB is like asking the shop to sell u the items u want at a higher price.
That is a natural reaction for business.

2nd, China is moving away from cheap exports(from serveral news webby if u are an avivd reader). Can you see the impact?

When things are getting more expensive due to strengthening of RMB, ppl will baulk at the higher price. world trade will suffer, not to mention higher inflation from earlier post. That is the exact problem when China is the manufacturing plant for the whole world.

Similarly for the Beijing olympics, i have a different view.
Although China is emerging as a powerhouse, the culture, Landscape, people, villages, has not been really been showncased to the world.
And Beijing olympics can be a platform.
Simply said, if China Govt can do things well, they can simply leverage on the Beijing olympics to showcase China to the world. And that will do wonders for China.

Imagine u are a tourist.
How long do u need to tour the whole of China?

Imagine u are a biz man.
will u not be interested to take a look at the upcoming giant if u have not done so?
IF u have done so, will u not be interested to take a closer look to expand, leverage on the huge population for (more) production, or for *(more) consumption?

In my humble opinion, Beijing Olympics could be the end, but it looks to me as more of a beginning, of a larger trend.

Now, if Japan and Korea can host the world cup, what do u think can stop China?

no doubt that right after the olympics there could be a void, but that looks likely to be easily offset by a larger trend as mentioned above. And when China showcased the ability to host a big event, expect more to come.

Just offering a different view

Last edited by touchring; 29th July 2007 at 08:38 AM..
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Old 29th July 2007, 08:30 AM
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Re: US Stocks take a tumble...

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
If the dollar does loses its reserve currency status, it will mean an al qaeda win because the fight has always been dollar for oil. The US can buy oil from the middle east for free because it controls the printing press. If one by one the middle east countries start asking for yen or euro, it will mean the US has to start paying for oil!
Maybe, but I don't think any of this can really be attributed Al Qaeda. Bush has managed to screw this up all on his own. At best they can take credit for confusing him by asking the wrong questions.
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