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Old 28th July 2007, 08:57 AM
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August 1997 - Asia Vs August 2007 - WallStreet?

August 1997 - Asia Vs August 2007 - WallStreet?

There seem to be parrellels, a bubble credit market shows signs of cracking, and then the start of a series of events that led to the collapse of credit markets?

An indepth study to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_financial_crisis might be useful.

Quote:
South Korea

South Korea is the world's 11th largest economy[1]. Macroeconomic fundamentals were good but the banking sector was burdened with non-performing loans as its large corporations were funding aggressive expansions. Excess debt would eventually lead to major failures and take-overs. For example, in July, South Korea's third largest car maker, Kia Motors asked for emergency loans. In the wake of the Asian market downturn, Moody's lowered the credit rating of South Korea from A1 to A3, on November 28, 1997, and downgraded again to B2 on December 11. That contributed to a further decline in Korean shares since stock markets were already bearish in November. The Seoul stock exchange fell by 4% on 7 November 1997. On November 8, it plunged by 7% the biggest one-day drop recorded there to date. And on November 24, stocks fell another 7.2% on fears that the IMF would demand tough reforms. In 1998, Hyundai Motor took over Kia Motors. Samsung Motors' $5 billion dollar venture was dissolved due to the crisis, and eventually Daewoo Motors was sold off to General Motors.

The Korean won, meanwhile plunged to less than 1700 per dollar from less than 1000, however, despite initial sharp economic slowdown and many companies going bankrupt, Korea has managed to triple its per capita GDP since the 1997 crisis to 2006 in dollar terms, continuing its growth from 1960 as the world's fastest growing economy in the period (1960-2006), per capita GDP having grown from $80 capita to over $18,000. However, like the chaebol, South Korea's government didn't come out unscathed, as its national debt to GDP ratio more than tripled after the crisis.

Where to go from now?

I'm thinking of betting on Asian Oil/Gas companies if the prices are low enough.

One thing for sure, with the risk of devaluation, American dollars is the worst investment at the moment. Yes, this reminds me to withdraw the paypal cash...

Last edited by touchring; 28th July 2007 at 09:18 AM..
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Old 28th July 2007, 10:53 AM
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Re: August 1997 - Asia Vs August 2007 - WallStreet?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
One thing for sure, with the risk of devaluation, American dollars is the worst investment at the moment. Yes, this reminds me to withdraw the paypal cash...
Paypal Europe is in Luxembourg now... I wonder what their holding currency actually is, though.

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Old 28th July 2007, 01:34 PM
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Re: August 1997 - Asia Vs August 2007 - WallStreet?

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Originally Posted by jacksonm
Paypal Europe is in Luxembourg now... I wonder what their holding currency actually is, though.

.

I think you can convert your cash to local currency for the new paypal accounts.

My strategy right now is to leave only sufficient balance to pay for a few months of registration expenses.

btw, latest news, so much so for the credit inflationary policy that ultimately fed Iranian coffers. More trouble ahead.


http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=4449

Quote:
Iran buys 250 long-distance Sukhoi fighter-bombers, 20 fuel tankers, from Russia

Tehran and the Russian Rosoboronexport arms group are about to sign a mammoth arms deal running into tens of billions of dollars for the sale to Tehran of 250 Su-30MKM warplanes and 20 IL-78 MKI fuel tankers. DEBKAfile’s military sources report Iran has stipulated delivery of the first aircraft before the end of 2007.

The transaction, Russia’s largest arms deal in 30 years, will endow Iran with a long-range aerial assault capability. The Sukhoi can sustain a four-and-a-half hour raid at its maximum range of 3,000 km against long-distance, marine and low-lying ground targets across the Persian Gulf and Middle East, including Israel and Lebanon.

The fuel tankers extends the Su-30MKM’s assault sustainability to 10 hours and its range to 8,000 km at altitudes of 11-13 km. The closest comparable plane in the West is the American F-15E fighter bomber. Iran’s acquisition of an exceptionally large fleet of the Russian fighter-bomber will elevate its air force to one of the two largest and most advanced in the region, alongside the Israeli Air Force.

Iranian air crews are already training on the new Sukhoi aircraft, ready to start flying them early next year with only a short delay after delivery. DEBKAfile’s sources report that Moscow is selling Tehran the same Sukhoi model as India received earlier this year. The Iranians leaned hard on New Delhi to let them have the Israeli avionics and electronics the Indian Air Force had installed in the Russian craft. India refused.

Russia began delivering the same craft in June to Malaysia, which also sought Israeli avionics without success. The Su-20MKM has won the nickname of “Islamic Version of Sukhoi.”

Its two-member crew shares the workload. The first pilot flies the aircraft, controls weapons and maneuvers the plane in a dogfight. The co-pilot employs BVR air-to-air and air-to-ground guided weapons in long-range engagements, sweeps the arena for enemy craft or missiles and performs as command-and-control in group missions.

Some of the plane’s systems are products of the French Thales Airborne Systems company. Moscow’s contract with Tehran for the sale of the Su-30MKM must therefore be cleared with Paris.

There is no decision in Jerusalem about asking Paris to withhold its consent to a deal which would substantially upgrade the long-range air assault capabilities of the Islamic Republic whose leaders want to wipe Israel off the map. However, President Nicolas Sarkozy is in mid-momentum of a diplomatic drive in the Arab and Muslim world and unlikely to be receptive to an Israeli approach. The only chance of aborting the Russian sale would be to route the approach through Washington.

Last edited by touchring; 28th July 2007 at 01:58 PM..
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