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Old 2nd August 2007, 04:49 AM
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Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $$$.

Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate is being propped up by foreign $$$.

It is getting too risky and foreign funds will flee after being burnt. The house of cards is collapsing, almost nothing can stop it.

Do not be surprised if mortgage companies start recalling home loans across the board. Interest rates will surge, loan to valuation ratio will fall, bank valuation will also fall, and income requirements will be imposed.

Also, expect the biggest lawsuits of all times against wallstreet fund managers for the "Subprime scam". Time to find a place to hide in China. :o


Taiwan Life Has Loss on Subprime Fund; Shares Fall
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...1hE&refer=home

Australia Macquarie Bank meltdown wipes off $2.3bn
http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...-14334,00.html

Germany rescues subprime lender
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20079844/

Last edited by touchring; 2nd August 2007 at 05:00 AM..
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Old 2nd August 2007, 05:00 AM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

I just got to point out of respect, that there are many Americans here who feel that
1. This is a domain forum.
2. They own property

What does this have to do with domaining?
I'm only putting this in the open because there are American members who feel posts are geared towards "anti America".
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Old 2nd August 2007, 05:09 AM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

No offense, but i'm not talking about politics.

I'm just repeating about what is being reported on the finance related websites. In fact, all warnings of the financial situation in US come from US based sources.

There's nothing anti-anyone about economic cycles. It's part and parcel of making money. Sell high, buy low. Buy low and high sell. Just as when ordinary Americans are sitting still, wealthy americans are or had already starting moving funds away. When everything's over, they will come back and buy at low price. The same thing happened during the Asian financial crisis. The smart money left first and after everything has settled, came back to buy over and invest.

I had been talking about such macroeconomic issues (china, america, rest of asia, a lot of negative and positive talks for china also) for more than a year on this forum. This is not a new thing, but recent developments had made the picture even clearer.

As for relationship with domaining, there is a lot to do with it, if not, our friends like invisible will not be spending so much. There is a major long term trend change going on, everyone is hedging, i'm also buying selectively and spreading the eggs.

The worst thing for investment is to mix with emotions.

Last edited by touchring; 2nd August 2007 at 05:46 AM..
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Old 2nd August 2007, 06:24 AM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olney
I just got to point out of respect, that there are many Americans here who feel that
1. This is a domain forum.
2. They own property

What does this have to do with domaining?
I'm only putting this in the open because there are American members who feel posts are geared towards "anti America".

Regardless of where I'm from or whether I own property, I don't really like these posts. Why not? Because they drive real domain threads such as sales, auctions, and appraisals off the front page faster. If I post an auction thread, it has a shorter exposure because of this constant economic ranting. It doesn't even matter if these posts have their own forum, as long as they are put into the pool of recent threads then it has the same net effect - driving real threads off the front page faster. There are plenty of investment strategy and economic discussion boards available...

.
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Last edited by jacksonm; 2nd August 2007 at 06:37 AM..
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Old 2nd August 2007, 06:47 AM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Quote:
Originally Posted by jacksonm
Regardless of where I'm from or whether I own property, I don't really like these posts. Why not? Because they drive real domain threads such as sales, auctions, and appraisals off the front page faster. If I post an auction thread, it has a shorter exposure because of this constant economic ranting. It doesn't even matter if these posts have their own forum, as long as they are put into the pool of recent threads then it has the same net effect - driving real threads off the front page faster. There are plenty of investment strategy and economic discussion boards available...

.

That case, i'm guilty of taking space.

Last point, I dont' know of any american investment board, and the local boards i post in are only interested in talking about china, few people even know the meaning of the word subprime and many were bewilded by the recent market correction, some were caught like completely by surprise.

Some even said: The market dropped for no reason, we're busy doing chinese business, tourists, who cares what happens to wallstreet. They are very wrong.

Last edited by touchring; 2nd August 2007 at 06:52 AM..
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Old 2nd August 2007, 06:57 AM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Quote:
Originally Posted by jacksonm
Regardless of where I'm from or whether I own property, I don't really like these posts. Why not? Because they drive real domain threads such as sales, auctions, and appraisals off the front page faster. If I post an auction thread, it has a shorter exposure because of this constant economic ranting. It doesn't even matter if these posts have their own forum, as long as they are put into the pool of recent threads then it has the same net effect - driving real threads off the front page faster. There are plenty of investment strategy and economic discussion boards available...
.
Funny, I was saying something similar to RD the other day. Such a high volume of posts that just amount to "news" and not really domain-related just serve to drive the legit sales and auction threads down faster. Domain name auction threads go flying off the page when "daily news" posts come in droves. I didn't say anything to Olney but yes, how about starting an "imminent demise of America" thread every week or so, so you guys can carry on happily with a minimal amount of forum disruption.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 07:09 AM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdw
Funny, I was saying something similar to RD the other day. Such a high volume of posts that just amount to "news" and not really domain-related just serve to drive the legit sales and auction threads down faster. Domain name auction threads go flying off the page when "daily news" posts come in droves. I didn't say anything to Olney but yes, how about starting an "imminent demise of America" thread every week or so, so you guys can carry on happily with a minimal amount of forum disruption.

There's no imminent demise of America.

If anything, the people in Wallstreet are earning more than anyone else on earth. Just look at the amount of money they made off hedge funds and subprime, and if there's a problem, the investors and home owners will suffer (be it American, mutual funds or foriegners).
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Old 2nd August 2007, 09:44 AM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

If that is the general consensus then we ought to do more about getting the Spam ASCII sales threads off. Most of them are just links through to some dead beat domain at SEDO.

Perhaps we might also consider getting rid of all the BOT advertising threads, whilst we are at it, or even trying to make the forum accessible 24/7 rather than just intermittently.

I also disagree strongly. The opinion in the domain market is still very much driven by the ASCII perception at Chinese only earn $100 dollars a year. This forum was largely set up because of the censorship that was going on elsewhere. If we are not able to discuss issues there it is going to become more and more just endless lists of largely unwanted domains.

If people are motivated to buy they will visit the sales threads. I have probably bought at many names as anyone lately. I do it opportunistically. I never log on with intention of buying something. I come to see what people are talking about.

This forum has always been about interchanges of ideas. Some of the discussion on here bores me to tears, but it is often the only place it can occur at the moment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jacksonm
Regardless of where I'm from or whether I own property, I don't really like these posts. Why not? Because they drive real domain threads such as sales, auctions, and appraisals off the front page faster. If I post an auction thread, it has a shorter exposure because of this constant economic ranting. It doesn't even matter if these posts have their own forum, as long as they are put into the pool of recent threads then it has the same net effect - driving real threads off the front page faster. There are plenty of investment strategy and economic discussion boards available...

.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 10:02 AM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
If that is the general consensus then we ought to do more about getting the Spam ASCII sales threads off. Most of them are just links through to some dead beat domain at SEDO.

Perhaps we might also consider getting rid of all the BOT advertising threads, whilst we are at it, or even trying to make the forum accessible 24/7 rather than just intermittently.
Yes, I also can't even see why Olney would first interject about the economy threads which are real posts by real users when nothing has been done to stop the SEO bot posts or the endless lists of people trying to sell LoveFrosty.com for 3 million dollars.

That said, I still think all the economy talk creates a high noise to signal ratio. It doesn't bother me personally, nor did I complain about it, but I still don't like it for the reasons stated - to me, it's in the same category as the poker threads.

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Old 2nd August 2007, 10:18 AM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

I only made a comment because of things sent to me by PM (From a few American members) not by personal choice.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 10:26 AM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

"General Discussion Feel free to talk about anything and everything in this board."

It really amazes me how Americans pontificate about censorship in China, but attempt to suppress information at every turn.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 12:34 PM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Quote:
Do not be surprised if mortgage companies start recalling home loans across the board.
My favorite quote so far. Thanks for the laugh.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 12:38 PM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Quote:
Originally Posted by thefabfive
My favorite quote so far. Thanks for the laugh.
Yes, that is pure Hollywood.

If you think you are carrying a lot of low grade debt, the last thing you need to do is prove it and push many over the edge that might have just come out the other side.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 12:52 PM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

What I'm saying is that TV evangelists preaching that "the end is nigh" should get their facts straight.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 12:53 PM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
"General Discussion Feel free to talk about anything and everything in this board."

It really amazes me how Americans pontificate about censorship in China, but attempt to suppress information at every turn.

Censorship is for politics and religion, even Singapore, for its even more draconian than China censorship moves, does not censor economic news. Since there are fellow forumers here that don't like to hear about economic news from their own country, i shall talk about just Asia instead from now onwards. No offence.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 12:54 PM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Quote:
Originally Posted by thefabfive
What I'm saying is that TV evangelists preaching that "the end is nigh" should get their facts straight.
Absolutely true. However, just because Touchring, however, is getting wildly off the mark on this occasion, it doesn't mean there isn't a problem.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 02:37 PM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

I don't deny that a problem exists. But it is a problem for investors of low-grade mortgages. Investors and hedge funds purchased these low-grade mortgages on margin - now with the devaluation of these mortgage notes these institutions are facing substantial margin calls.

This may mean the end of these high-risk mortgage products, but the impact to the average consumer is negligible. High end mortgages are still being written. Real estate prices have dipped in highly speculated areas like Florida, California, and Nevada, but have held ground elsewhere. Should prices become more attractive in the future I see real estate investors re-entering the market.

There are plenty of Chicken Little's running around. And it's obvious most of them don't really understand what's going on.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 02:53 PM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Maybe, but we have experienced a similar situation in the UK in recent times (1987 to 1993 or thereabouts). Yes investors did return, but it took them about six years. Check the situation that has occurred in Japan, it took a decade. Investors build huge blind loyalty to Real Estate Markets that are not rational. When that is severely shaken and everyone knows somebody crushed by debt, it takes years for confidence to return.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thefabfive
I don't deny that a problem exists. But it is a problem for investors of low-grade mortgages. Investors and hedge funds purchased these low-grade mortgages on margin - now with the devaluation of these mortgage notes these institutions are facing substantial margin calls.

This may mean the end of these high-risk mortgage products, but the impact to the average consumer is negligible. High end mortgages are still being written. Real estate prices have dipped in highly speculated areas like Florida, California, and Nevada, but have held ground elsewhere. Should prices become more attractive in the future I see real estate investors re-entering the market.

There are plenty of Chicken Little's running around. And it's obvious most of them don't really understand what's going on.
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Old 2nd August 2007, 02:57 PM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Gamma mentioned that if people expect a downturn to come, a downturn won't come, or it will be very very gradual.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Maybe, but we have experienced a similar situation in the UK in recent times (1987 to 1993 or thereabouts). Yes investors did return, but it took them about six years. Check the situation that has occurred in Japan, it took a decade. Investors build huge blind loyalty to Real Estate Markets that are not rational. When that is severely shaken and everyone knows somebody crushed by debt, it takes years for confidence to return.

I read somewhere that if almost everyone is crushed, that's about the best tmie to enter.

What i want to say that a downturn isn't just about losing money. It's also about making money.

Just because real estate gone up the past 50 years doesn't mean it will continuing climbing. Before the japanese market crashed 15 years ago, i'm sure the market rose for the 30 years before that happened.

As in the laws of nature, the higher it goes and the longer it stays up, the harder will be the eventual fall because people do not expect it, had not experience it before, or do not believe it will be that there will be a hard lending .... ah! it's only the poor people that will be in trouble..

Many Asian countries like Thailand, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore went through a housing correction only a few years ago, even if the bubble today burst now, the fallout will be bad, but not devastating. Ask Asiaplay, if hong kong people are now more careful, and even if there would be a crash, recovery will be quick.

I quote what someone said on a stock forum - It's about being prepared.

Last edited by touchring; 2nd August 2007 at 03:19 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 2nd August 2007, 03:22 PM
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Re: Subprime impact worldwide just shows how much US real estate prop up by foreign $

Wise investors predict a recovery and monitor the markets for clear evidence that it has already started before piling in. Most investments have the nature of a commodity, in which case you can afford to miss the initial buying spree before getting fully invested.
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