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Old 29th August 2007, 09:48 PM
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Dollar to be sold down the River?

Dow Jones rebounds nearly 250 points on rumours of interest rate cuts.

It looks as though the Fed are prepared to make any sacrifice in an attempt to keep the Gravy Train Rolling for Election Year.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6967575.stm
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Old 30th August 2007, 02:12 AM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Apart from boosting stocks short term, can the interest rate trick now work?

Japan had almost zero interest rates for more than a decade after the housing credit bubble bust.

I think wallstreet is trying to buy time to attract individual (and maybe foolish european investors) back into the stock market so the smart money can cash out while they buy in. :o

Last edited by touchring; 30th August 2007 at 04:58 AM..
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Old 30th August 2007, 03:59 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

The bursting of Japan's real estate bubble and the 10+ year aftermath was a very peculiar and different affair altogether from the current situation. At one point 10 of Japan's top 12 banks were technically bankrupt based on the amount of bad debt they held. Banks couldn't foreclose on collateral real estate because doing so systematically would show the world that they indeed had far more obligations than capital. In desperation, they did the only thing they could do which was to keep loaning the same borrowers more money to keep them from declaring bankruptcy. Those who held the debt (construction companies, big and small real estate investors) didn't pay banks because they couldn't afford to and knew the banks could not afford to foreclose on them. And much of the valuable real estate in Japan went undeveloped because they knew that finishing a construction project meant that all of their future cashflow would be tied up paying off debt obligations.

In the U.S. case though, while some big players will be impacted, the banking system is diverse, healthy, and compared to Japan relatively transparent. And I think it is premature also to ask if an interest rate cut can work given that up to this point the fed has been moving rates up, up, up. The Fed has a lot of room to breathe on the interest rate.
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Old 30th August 2007, 04:23 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

I think the dollar is the golden goose. The US buys oil and commodities for free because it owns the money printing press. Oil and commodities are bought using the dollar, which the US government prints at will. Other countries must purchase dollars to buy oil.

Lower rates too much, if people are forced to move over to euro instead, generations of future Americans will lose this privilege American citizens had since WWI.

2 options:

Plan A: Suffer 5 years of deep recession (Great Depression lasted about 5 years?)

OR

Plan B: Lose the printing press forever. And with it, in sooner or later, economic, and then military dominance. And the criminals behind Sept 11 wins half a century from now. :o

Or maybe there's plan C?

Last edited by touchring; 30th August 2007 at 04:46 PM..
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Old 30th August 2007, 04:53 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Olney, could you please create sub-forums for the "Collapse of the Dollar / US Economy" and perhaps also "China Market Supremacy". I think these topics deserve their own sections.

Thank you.
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Old 30th August 2007, 04:56 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

I have been trying to get this point across for sometime now.

The US has derived huge benefit from being the World's reserve currency and the one in which all commodities are priced. That situation cannot carry on indefinitely. The US is really just not that economically important any more.

It is not a question of if but when. If the Fed follow through and cut interest rates to prop up Wall Street, it could be a lot earlier than most imagine. There really has never been a sustained attack on the dollar previously by currency speculators like has repeatedly occurred with other currencies. It must now be considered highly vulnerable in a way in which it never previously has been.

Following the markets these last couple of weeks, one gets the impression that there is a lot of choreography going on. The received wisdom from those that have been burnt in the past is that such window dressing will have little impact when the grim reaper arrives.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
I think the dollar is the golden goose. The US buys oil and commodities for free because it owns the money printing press. Oil and commodities are bought using the dollar, which the US government prints at will. Other countries must purchase dollars to buy oil.

Lower rates too much, if people are forced to move over to euro instead, generations of future Americans will lose this privilege American citizens had since WWI.

2 options:

Plan A: Suffer 5 years of deep recession (Great Depression lasted about 5 years?)

OR

Plan B: Lose the printing press forever. And with it, in sooner or later, economic, and then military dominance. And the criminals behind Sept 11 wins half a century from now. :o

Or maybe there's plan C?
Quote:
Originally Posted by thefabfive
Olney, could you please create forum sections on the "Collapse of the Dollar / US Economy" and perhaps also "China Market Supremacy".

Thank you.
Sounds fine to me as long as there is an effort to clear up the rest of the garbage on this forum.
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Last edited by Rubber Duck; 30th August 2007 at 04:58 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 30th August 2007, 05:02 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by thefabfive
"China Market Supremacy". I think these topics deserve their own sections.

Thank you.
I agree for the subsection, but as for china market supremacy? Not so soon me thinks. They face a meltdown themselves! :o

The world is now like Japan in 1990, the US people, the debtors, Wallstreet + the rest of the world, the banker! If the debtor defaults, the banker can go bankrupt.

As for who is the bigger banker, based on the recent CDO busts, we know that the Europeans are the bigger player.

Last edited by touchring; 30th August 2007 at 05:12 PM..
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Old 30th August 2007, 06:14 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
2 options:

Plan A: Suffer 5 years of deep recession (Great Depression lasted about 5 years?)

OR

Plan B: Lose the printing press forever. And with it, in sooner or later, economic, and then military dominance. And the criminals behind Sept 11 wins half a century from now. :o

Or maybe there's plan C?
I have a different opinion.

We do see some problems in the US economy today, but US economy is big enough and strong enough to cope with such problems. Nothing needs to be worried.

In the next 100 years, I believe U.S. will still be a very rich and a very powerful nation.
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Old 30th August 2007, 06:23 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Giant
I have a different opinion.

We do see some problems in the US economy today, but US economy is big enough and strong enough to cope with such problems. Nothing needs to be worried.

In the next 100 years, I believe U.S. will still be a very rich and a very powerful nation.


The British empire is no more, but UK is still a very rich nation.

Last edited by touchring; 30th August 2007 at 06:29 PM..
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Old 30th August 2007, 06:32 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
The British empire is no more, but UK is still a very rich nation.

The 21st century is north east asia's century, by August 2007 it is very clear, more clear than ever.
That's true. As humans keep developing and progressing, the world will become more balanced and empires will disappear.

Also, the knowledge people gain from the past and the cooperation between nations will easily prevent big economy problems or recessions from happening.
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Old 30th August 2007, 06:40 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Giant
I have a different opinion.

We do see some problems in the US economy today, but US economy is big enough and strong enough to cope with such problems. Nothing needs to be worried.

In the next 100 years, I believe U.S. will still be a very rich and a very powerful nation.
There are a number of factors that go together to create power and influence.

Traditionally the availability of agricultural land was a major factor, and this required cheap labour so the availability of serfs or slaves was also a factor. It was also necessary to have serf to project your military might.

This situation changed with the industrial revolution, so technology and mineral resources became increasingly more important.

In the post-industrial age, things have changed again and much is down the resourcefulness and creativity of the populous.

Obviously, historical performance has an impact in terms of infrastructure and national saving, but a serious military conflict can soon level all of that. Most of Europe and much of Asia had to start from scratch after WWII. The US had a huge advantage as it infrastructure and finances were left in tack and it was largely able to trade on its own terms until Germany and Japan got back on their feet.

Such advantages, however, are actually quite ephemeral. The most important asset that any economy has is confidence of investors, particularly foreign investor. Once that is severely shaken, it can be difficult to rebuild.

Britain success, as with Germany and Japan has little to do with historically accumulated wealth, because indeed by the 1970s it was just about bankrupt. It success derives from its ability to reinvent itself and climb up the value chain. Yes, it did have some advantages from its cultural inheritance but these mainly stemmed from the advantages of being English Speaking and at least at some levels of having had a good education system, which also went into decline but has been improved considerably in recent years.

The real strength of any nation is its people and their ability to create something from nowhere and do it much better than the opposition. All nations possess this inherent wealth, but it is exploited by education, training and creating culture of innovation and risk. This also needs to be combined with sound financial management. I have to say on balance when looking around for these traits in a nation state, the US is not first place that springs to mind.

The bottom line is that as Japan, Germany, Britain and now China have proven, things can be turned around in a generation. Past experience also indicates that it takes only similar period for a once proud nations to fall into decline. The signs have been there with the US for a while. The World is a very dynamic place at the moment. Competitive edge can be won and lost very easily. The worst problem, as I see it is that most within the US do not seem to even acutely sense this need to compete, indeed one senses contempt for the abilities of other nations at every turn. That is a classical trait of victims of a sucker punch.
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Old 30th August 2007, 09:32 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
It looks as though the Fed are prepared to make any sacrifice in an attempt to keep the Gravy Train Rolling for Election Year.
The Fed has stubbornly refused to cut rates so far. Keeping inflation in check is a higher priority than bailing out investors. Make any sacrifice? Hardly! This is tabloid journalism at its worst, and certainly shouldn't be cluttering up a domaining forum.

Sometimes I read the inane drivel you post and I wonder if you're deliberately playing dumb to provoke people. Or maybe your old moniker was appropriate.
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Old 30th August 2007, 09:38 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdw
The Fed has stubbornly refused to cut rates so far. Keeping inflation in check is a higher priority than bailing out investors. Make any sacrifice? Hardly! This is tabloid journalism at its worst, and certainly shouldn't be cluttering up a domaining forum.

Sometimes I read the inane drivel you post and I wonder if you're deliberately playing dumb to provoke people. Or maybe your old moniker was appropriate.
OK, just ignoring the fact that IDN gambits are closely tied to the performance of various markets around the World, what exactly are we cluttering up?

Endless listings of domains that nobody is interested in? Bots posting adverts for mobile phones. Appraisals for domains in extension that are barely used by the peoples whose languages they are registered in? Where is the domain business? What sales are you on about?

And for those of you who think I am completely off my trolley perhaps you should red The Economist assessment. Seems to tie in pretty closely from where I am standing:

http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ory_id=9725698

Or maybe it is just a question of shooting the messenger?
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Old 30th August 2007, 09:43 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
what exactly are we cluttering up?
Endless listings of domains that nobody is interested in?
Sorry, didn't realize you spoke for everyone.

If you don't care about those lists of domains then what are you doing here? You're spamming a useful resource!
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Old 30th August 2007, 09:46 PM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdw
Sorry, didn't realize you spoke for everyone.

If you don't care about those lists of domains then what are you doing here? You're spamming a useful resource!
If there was any real interest, we would see significant sums of money changing hands, vibrant auctions. If you know something I don't then please point us to the Auctions. Over the summer I guess I have bought more than most here!

From your Trader Rating it would seem that last time you were credited was over a month ago. And who was the seller? Oh, yes that would seem to be me!
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Old 31st August 2007, 12:09 AM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
The worst problem, as I see it is that most within the US do not seem to even acutely sense this need to compete, indeed one senses contempt for the abilities of other nations at every turn. That is a classical trait of victims of a sucker punch.
Or the classic economic rekindling of the famous "rope-a-dope"
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Old 31st August 2007, 04:14 AM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
Or the classic economic rekindling of the famous "rope-a-dope"

I don't think it is so complicated. Wallstreet has always been in control of the entire game.

Shifting productin to offshore, like India increases profit margin (recently, i was told even high end jobs like legal assistant and accountants are moved over), outsourcing to China increases profit margin.

Iraq war gives business to Halliburton, Boeing and weapon makers, boost profit margin of oil producers like Exxon, never mind if it costs American tax payers money.

Selling loan shark mortgages (aka as subprime) to poorer Americans and then reselling to European banks, also by Wallstreet.

Finger pointing at China - another trick by Wallstreet backed politicians to divert attention.

As long as big businesses funds and controls the Whitehouse, fattening their margin, at the expense of everything else, status quo will remain. Nothing changes. This arrangement is by far the most lucrative model.

Is this problem unique to America? Not really, all governments today feed the wealthy.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rope-a-dope

Quote:
Rope-a-dope is a boxing fighting style used most famously by Muhammad Ali (who coined the term) in the Rumble in the Jungle against George Foreman. The idea is for the boxer to lie on the ropes of a boxing ring, conserve energy and allow the opponent to strike him repeatedly in hopes of making him tire and open up weaknesses to exploit for an eventual counter-attack.

Rope-a-dope is also commonly used to describe strategies in areas other than boxing, where one party purposely puts itself in what appears to be a losing position, and then becomes the eventual victor. Lying on the ropes had been, and still is, considered a "sin" in boxing, exposing a fighter to punishment because he cannot move away from his opponent.

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Old 31st August 2007, 04:50 AM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

This doomsday talk about the american economy always amuses me. Not that it is invulnerable, but come on, the yahoo japan algo just changed and not in a favorable way from the looks of it. Now that's a real IDN topic!
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Old 31st August 2007, 05:07 AM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rhys
This doomsday talk about the american economy always amuses me. Not that it is invulnerable, but come on, the yahoo japan algo just changed and not in a favorable way from the looks of it. Now that's a real IDN topic!
Hear, hear! I just went from top spot to number nine for hedge funds, costing me about $5 daily.

As for the US economy, don't worry about it. Congress will bail out investors and the prime jumbo-loan market (and the derivatives market that no one seems to be talking about).

The poor will continue to get poorer. Privatize the profits, socialize the costs...
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Old 31st August 2007, 05:21 AM
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Re: Dollar to be sold down the River?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
Or the classic economic rekindling of the famous "rope-a-dope"
I don't think there is any doubt that Reagan did that to the USSR at the end of the cold war.

If Bush intends to play similar tactics in the alley fight he is facing with the BRIC countries, he is going to get his guts spilled all over the floor.

The first presumption that you have to make for this tactic to work is that your opponent, or in this case opponents really are all dopes. Looking at Bush they would have to be mental retards for the tactic to work.
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