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Old 14th September 2007, 08:11 PM
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another economic prediction article

http://cfo.com/article.cfm/9689444/c...16/?f=archives
not sure if this was posted before, thought is was interesting.
Turkey and Indonesia, that was a surprise.

tee1

"2050 Foresight
Prognosticators of all stripes agree: economic reality will undergo a seismic shift.
Edward Teach, CFO Magazine
September 01, 2007

Just for fun, let's turn away from the troubles of the present — the meltdown of the subprime mortgage sector, the volatility of the stock market, the cratering of hedge funds — and look to the horizon. What is the world going to look like in 2050?

The growing consensus is that we will be in the middle of the Chinese century. "China's rise has more in common with the rise of the United States a century earlier than with the progress of its modern-day predecessors and followers," writes Oded Shenkar in his 2005 book The Chinese Century. Measured in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), China's economy is already number two and gaining fast on the United States.
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But it's not just China that is ascendant. During the next few decades, studies say, the world's economic center of gravity will shift. By 2050, the seven largest emerging economies, or E7 — China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey:o — could collectively surpass the current G7 countries (the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Canada) by 75 percent in PPP terms, or by 25 percent in U.S. dollar terms, according to a 2006 PricewaterhouseCoopers report, "The World in 2050." Currently, the E7 economies are 20 percent the size of the G7 in dollar terms and 75 percent in PPP terms."
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Old 14th September 2007, 08:21 PM
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Re: another economic prediction article

50 years a long time. 50 years ago, after the korean war, South korea was the poorest country in Asia.

50 years ago, Venezuela was one of the wealthiest nations in the world.

50 years ago, the Philippines was wealthier than both Taiwan and South Korea.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ec...er-capita-1950

Last edited by touchring; 14th September 2007 at 08:30 PM..
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Old 14th September 2007, 08:27 PM
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Re: another economic prediction article

50 years is a long time but it still conveys the point that the rest the of the world is catching the US and its not just China that the US should be watching.

tee1
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Old 14th September 2007, 08:30 PM
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Re: another economic prediction article

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
50 years a long time.
Yeah, but they're talking about 43 years. Still, I'll probably be dead by then.

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Old 14th September 2007, 10:52 PM
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Re: another economic prediction article

50 year predictions are interesting, but world wars and other cataclysms can make a big difference. Environmental problems could stifle growth in those countries. Energy supply disruptions, resource wars, unforeseen political upheavals, etc.... You just never know.

World War I was supposed to be the war that ended all wars.
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