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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 24th September 2007, 04:16 AM
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Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Some of you might be prepared, but for those who have not, I think it is time to ask yourself this question. Have you prepared for at least 3 year's* worth of renewals.

By now, it is clear, that the world economy is headed for trouble, USA will fall into recession by next year, housing will most likely fall at least 15% nationwide, no matter what the Feds do, UK will be in the same position in 12 mths to 18 mth's time, and China assuming poor don't revolt first like they now do in Burma, the bubble will still burst by the time of the Olympics, trade war will breakout when the democrats take over and home prices will fall maybe 80% :o, last Japan will also be in serious recession by then.

Amount to prepare in worst case scenario (PPC dries up):

100 names - 100 x 3 x 7.50 = $2250
500 names - 500 x 3 x 7.50 = $11250
1000 names - 1000 x 3 x 7.50 = $22500
2000 names - 2000 x 3x 7.50 = $45000

Actual amount = worst case x PPC ratio


*3 years is just a base estimate.

Last edited by touchring; 24th September 2007 at 04:55 AM..
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Old 24th September 2007, 04:58 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

My PPC, oddly enough was practically nonexistent in 2006 except for Cyrillic. Now it is actually starting to do well in 2008 in nearly every language (Korean is the exception).

Everyone needs to be prepared with their own lifeboat list. What would you save and what would you drop?
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Old 24th September 2007, 05:03 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

This is good to look at
Also breaking it down by month to see how much your portfolio should make in PPC, affiliate, or advertising to cover your portfolio cost.

At the bare minimum breaking even (for now) should be a goal. Whether it's developing 1 great site, to do parking, sales, or a number of small sites.
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Old 24th September 2007, 05:09 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Yep. Everyone needs to take this very seriously. I went a little overboard this year and am in a little screw-up myself. Hopefully can dig myself out, but I am trying my hardest to at least get out of debt and the domains renewed till 2009 at the earliest.
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Old 24th September 2007, 05:13 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Break even is a good goal right now.
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Old 24th September 2007, 05:17 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsinternet
What would you save and what would you drop?

Yes, this is the first thing to do. But works only if you park your names. Over the weekend, i did some house keeping, renewed some soon to expire names and parked some odd names i registered over the last 1 year.

btw, i read aboutt he 15th October rate raise, anyone knows what is the new rate for ND, Moniker and Dynadot and the deadline before the new rate sets in?
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Old 24th September 2007, 05:50 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

We also should move all domains to the right registrar.

nets = Dynadot
coms = Moniker ?!
info =
org =
biz =
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Old 24th September 2007, 05:53 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Perhaps to stave off a serious reduction in the number of registrations, Verisign might end up LOWERING the cost when they see demand drop?
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Old 24th September 2007, 07:02 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewbert
Perhaps to stave off a serious reduction in the number of registrations, Verisign might end up LOWERING the cost when they see demand drop?


Inflation is now a huge problem, especially in developing countries. Apartments in Chinese cities are now reaching 25-30 years' income - can you imagine that, 30 years' income just to buy a 3 BR apartment?

You think paying 10 years income is a big problem in the UK, how about 30 years?? To buy a flat, it takes 2 generations - the parents life savings plus the couple working 30 years to pay off the mortgage.

Last edited by touchring; 24th September 2007 at 07:10 AM..
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Old 24th September 2007, 07:24 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Amount to prepare in worst case scenario (PPC dries up):

100 names - 100 x 3 x 7.50 = $2250
500 names - 500 x 3 x 7.50 = $11250
1000 names - 1000 x 3 x 7.50 = $22500
2000 names - 2000 x 3x 7.50 = $45000
(Not the worst case yet)

I always thought it was a max. of 7% annual-hike in the coming 4 years


$7.5 :: $8.00 :: $8.60
----------------------------
100 names: 750 + 800 + 860 = $2,410
500 names: 3750 + 4000 + 4300 = $12,050
1000 names: 7500 + 8000 +8600= $24,100
2000 names: 15000 + 16000 + 17200 = $48,200

"Under the settlement, ICANN allows VeriSign to renew its contract for management of the .com registry in 2012, with $6 from each domain registered going to ICANN. During the six years in between, VeriSign may raise domain registration fees by a maximum of 7 percent in four of those six years."


(I maybe wrong)

why worry? People here can sell just one name from their mighty portfolio and recoup their $48,200 instantly :D
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Old 24th September 2007, 07:28 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

I usually do two-year renewal.
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Old 24th September 2007, 07:36 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Silhouette
(Not the worst case yet)

I always thought it was a max. of 7% annual-hike in the coming 4 years


$7.5 :: $8.00 :: $8.60
----------------------------
100 names: 750 + 800 + 860 = $2,410
500 names: 3750 + 4000 + 4300 = $12,050
1000 names: 7500 + 8000 +8600= $24,100
2000 names: 15000 + 16000 + 17200 = $48,200
Thanks, this is more accurate calculation for the worst case scenario.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Silhouette

(I maybe wrong)

why worry? People here can sell just one name from their mighty portfolio and recoup their $48,200 instantly :D

We can't assume that the market is always liquid, and besides, many of us here are in for the long haul, though i must point out, there is no doubts about the long term prospects of IDNs.

Many things can happen in 2 or 3 years - we also need to consider opportunity costs, e.g. you eyed a big house a broker once occupied, it's on firesale now, but you need to put down 10%.
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Old 24th September 2007, 08:44 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Liquidity has been a problem.

I think you can safely assume that this will radically change in the next 3 to 6 months.

Planning for 3 years renewals is ABSURD. If we have problems past 12 months, I will be junking much of the portfolio anyway. The thing every investor has to be able to is to face reality. The reality is that if there is not significant progress within 12 months, the potential of the IDN gambit is going to have to be drastically
downgraded.

I must stress this is NOT out central scenario. There must still be a remote possibility that IDN will flunk, but 2008 should confirm things one way or the other.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Thanks, this is more accurate calculation for the worst case scenario.





We can't assume that the market is always liquid, and besides, many of us here are in for the long haul, though i must point out, there is no doubts about the long term prospects of IDNs.

Many things can happen in 2 or 3 years - we also need to consider opportunity costs, e.g. you eyed a big house a broker once occupied, it's on firesale now, but you need to put down 10%.
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Old 24th September 2007, 09:15 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

I don't think this is about IDN flunking, its about the global economy going into meltdown and PPC revenues (or whatever) not being enough to cover reg fees.

IDN AND ASCII.
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Old 24th September 2007, 09:18 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Planning for 3 years renewals is ABSURD. If we have problems past 12 months, I will be junking much of the portfolio anyway. The thing every investor has to be able to is to face reality.

Ok, to be fair it might be 2-years, depends on how much contingency you want to put in -- 1-year is already guaranteed as most of us here got to plan to renew the bulk of names over the next 4 to 5 mths.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewbert
I don't think this is about IDN flunking, its about the global economy going into meltdown and PPC revenues (or whatever) not being enough to cover reg fees.

IDN AND ASCII.

I must say that this is still a projection, the economy in the East (aside from Japan) is now still steaming ahead like there was no credit crunch or subprime.

Last edited by touchring; 24th September 2007 at 09:23 AM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 24th September 2007, 09:32 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

>I must say that this is still a projection, the economy in the East (aside from Japan) is
>now still steaming ahead like there was no credit crunch or subprime.

Good news for certain IDN owners (once ie7 au finally pushes through) but for ASCII portfolio holders with 90% of their revenue coming from USA and 8% from Canada the future's not so bright.
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Old 24th September 2007, 09:39 AM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewbert
>I must say that this is still a projection, the economy in the East (aside from Japan) is
>now still steaming ahead like there was no credit crunch or subprime.

Good news for certain IDN owners (once ie7 au finally pushes through) but for ASCII portfolio holders with 90% of their revenue coming from USA and 8% from Canada the future's not so bright.

Yes, for the time being, but if there were a crash in China, home prices won't come down 10% or 20% like in mature markets like America and the UK, but something like 80%.


Shanghai stock chart:


Last edited by touchring; 24th September 2007 at 11:34 AM..
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Old 24th September 2007, 12:54 PM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Liquidity has been a problem.

If we have problems past 12 months, I will be junking much of the portfolio anyway.
Remember to give pass me the list of your deletes - hahaa... cheers, Asiaplay
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Old 24th September 2007, 01:31 PM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaplay
Remember to give pass me the list of your deletes - hahaa... cheers, Asiaplay
Don't hold your breath. :p
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Old 24th September 2007, 03:04 PM
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Re: Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

global economic meltdown? yawn.

some forecasting models are not worth making, certainly not past the next 12 months.

anyhoo with any luck 2007 will close out with enough in the bank for 2 years worth of renewals.
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