US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by touchring

I just came back from a visit to some Chinese cities. Economies of many medium to large Chinese cities are now growing in excess of 15% a year, probably even 20% for cities like Shenzhen.

I think at least 100 million city people can reach Taiwan averages in about 7-8 years.

China should outstrip Japan by 2015 at the current rate.

Yes but when the Yuan is floated it is going to appreciate very rapidly and particularly against the dollar. The growth rates are going to be compounded by a massive hike in the value of the currency.

You could be talking dollar growth rates well in excess of 30%. You don't need to compound those too many times for it to make a huge difference.

[touchring]

High growth isn't all to it. The thing is that Chinese cities are now growing ultra high density. 30-40 storey apartment blocks layed side by side are now the norm in coastal cities. They are compacting everyone in one location. At least a dozen cities got or are building subway or some sort of city rail system.

If oil dries up over the next 30 years, you could be looking at suburban sprawls turning into desolation as people move to apartment blocks near public transport and subway stations, so this has significant financial and economic implications.