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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 31st October 2007, 01:51 PM
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US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

The US economy...loved and hated topic here at forum. Frankly the discussions have put me in a much more conservative mode so from my perspective that is a good thing. My personal take is that things are going to get worse before they get better.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071031/economy.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy picked up speed in the summer, growing at a brisk 3.9 percent pace, the fastest in 1 1/2 years and an impressive performance even as a credit crunch plunged the housing market deeper into turmoil.
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Old 31st October 2007, 02:07 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

The basic problem was that Lenders refused to lend because the Risk Reward relationship was completely out of kilter. Hence the terminology Credit Crunch.

The FED solved the problem by reducing interest rates.

Can somebody explain to me just how they ever thought that was going to work?
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Old 31st October 2007, 03:04 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

The roaring demand from the emerging world is more than enough to offset the losses in the home markets?

So, the decoupling theory is for real?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
My personal take is that things are going to get worse before they get better.
Would it get worst? Ben Bernanke can just depreciate the dollar another 3% and send another $250 billion out of the country to achieve another 3% growth for the 4th quarter. The US is expected to lose maybe $100billion in subprime losses (based on Fed estimates), but from the look of it, it will throw away maybe $1 trillion to reduce the $100billion loss by 10%.

Can the US government do better? Or is subprime only an excuse for these people to rig the markets and make even more money? The smart money will be out of the US by now, a dollar devaluation thereafter will allow them to buy back assets at dirt cheap prices....


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071031/..._rates_housing

Quote:
"The problems in the housing market, the problems in the credit markets are not easily solved by the Fed cutting rates," said Steve East, chief economist for investment bank Friedman Billings, Ramsey & Co. in Arlington, Va., who sees the Fed making three quarter-point cuts by January and puts the odds of a recession in 2008 at 60 percent.

The thinking is that lenders can improve battered balance sheets if they have to pay less for money they borrow short-term while the rate they charge borrowers for long-term loans holds steady or moves higher. Yet analysts say problems in the credit markets extend beyond the benefits of small rate cuts.

Struggling homebuilders, such as D.R. Horton Inc., Lennar Corp. and Pulte Homes Inc., are faced with tightened lending standards and severely limited demand. Many would-be buyers are unable to qualify for loan approvals, even if rates move lower.

Lower interest rates are "certainly not the panacea" for getting the housing market back on track, said UBS homebuilding analyst David Goldberg.

The median U.S. home price nationwide fell for the eighth consecutive month in August, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday. Fifteen of 20 metropolitan areas included in the index declined. Many experts predict housing prices will fall further before demand rebounds.

Jefferson Harralson, a banking analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. who follows banks such as Bank of America Corp. and Wachovia Corp., said an acceleration in losses from defaults "seems to be a given, whether or not a rate cut occurs."

He says home equity lines of credit will be less likely to default if rates are lower. But that's hardly a revenue cure for banks in an environment in which housing prices continue to fall and foreclosures continue to rise.

"The home equity business isn't going to be a growth business," Harralson said.

Last edited by touchring; 31st October 2007 at 03:53 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 31st October 2007, 04:18 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

I think we all expect a recession next year. In the mean time, I am exchanging dollars for IDN.
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Old 31st October 2007, 05:21 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

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I am exchanging dollars for IDN.
Quote of the day !
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Old 31st October 2007, 05:25 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

of the year more like it.
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Old 31st October 2007, 05:32 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Would it get worst? Ben Bernanke can just depreciate the dollar another 3% and send another $250 billion out of the country to achieve another 3% growth for the 4th quarter. The US is expected to lose maybe $100billion in subprime losses (based on Fed estimates), but from the look of it, it will throw away maybe $1 trillion to reduce the $100billion loss by 10%.
Somebody needs to send Bernanke out the country to do Economics 101!
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Old 31st October 2007, 06:56 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
The US is expected to lose maybe $100billion in subprime losses (based on Fed estimates), but from the look of it, it will throw away maybe $1 trillion to reduce the $100billion loss by 10%.
And let's not forget also that trillions of dollars are going to be wiped from residential housing values as the market corrects.
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Old 31st October 2007, 08:01 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

I see the dollar has fallen below 95 cents.
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Old 31st October 2007, 09:12 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/...d-messiah.html

How to cut USA's dependence on foreign oil...

Discuss.
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Old 31st October 2007, 09:23 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

I think Bush will open up ANWR first. Follow the money.
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Old 31st October 2007, 11:04 PM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

One of the reasons why putting oil men in charge of the government was a VERY VERY bad idea.
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Old 1st November 2007, 02:21 AM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewbert
And let's not forget also that trillions of dollars are going to be wiped from residential housing values as the market corrects.

I'm not counting that in as it's just losses on the books. People still need a place to stay?

btw, gold is nearly $800, and oil is now $95? :o

From the time just before the sept rate cut 6 weeks ago to now, the dollar has lost 15% of its value.

Last edited by touchring; 1st November 2007 at 02:28 AM..
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Old 1st November 2007, 02:47 AM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

Which means domain registrations are 15% cheaper! :p

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
I'm not counting that in as it's just losses on the books. People still need a place to stay?

btw, gold is nearly $800, and oil is now $95? :o

From the time just before the sept rate cut 6 weeks ago to now, the dollar has lost 15% of its value.
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Old 1st November 2007, 03:06 AM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Which means domain registrations are 15% cheaper! :p

Possible, you converted all your momney into barrels of oil. Oil price risen 40% against the dollar past 3 quarters.

Ben Bernanke believes in the textbook theory of printing money to avert recessions. But just as one can't cheat death, one can't avoid the effects of a recession, the economy will hit back at him some other ways.

But one thing for sure, Asia will benefit from the capital fleeing the US while he tries to devalue the dollar. Asian governments, washed with cash, will start going round the world, like Africa, buying up oil fields, mines and resources. Natural resources are the foundation of economic power, wealth, and finally military power.

Last edited by touchring; 1st November 2007 at 03:35 AM..
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Old 1st November 2007, 03:19 AM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Possible, you converted all your momney into barrels of oil. Oil price risen 40% against the dollar past 3 quarters.
And the demand for Gasoline is only likely to increase as Americans drive across the border to deposit their savings in Canada. :p
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Old 1st November 2007, 03:39 AM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
And the demand for Gasoline is only likely to increase as Americans drive across the border to deposit their savings in Canada. :p

If status quo continues, gasoline prices are likely to double or triple or quadriple over the next few years. The more money Ben Bernanke prints, the higher the economic growth in Asia, the more money flees to Asia, South America and Africa, and then more resources they will consume.

I know that a shift in wealth distribution is going to happen, but i didn't expect it to happen so quickly, this is really an eye opener. :o
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Old 1st November 2007, 03:50 AM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
btw, gold is nearly $800, and oil is now $95? :o

Latest update: $96!
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Old 1st November 2007, 04:33 AM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
If status quo continues, gasoline prices are likely to double or triple or quadriple over the next few years. The more money Ben Bernanke prints, the higher the economic growth in Asia, the more money flees to Asia, South America and Africa, and then more resources they will consume.

I know that a shift in wealth distribution is going to happen, but i didn't expect it to happen so quickly, this is really an eye opener. :o
No, because none of you are listening. I have repeatedly stated that the Chinese Economy will outstrip the US by about 2020 if not before. The prediction from US economist of 2050 are based on simplistic extrapolations that ignore much of the real dynamic.
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Old 1st November 2007, 04:41 AM
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Re: US Economy Grows 3.9%- Smoke? Mirrors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
No, because none of you are listening. I have repeatedly stated that the Chinese Economy will outstrip the US by about 2020 if not before. The prediction from US economist of 2050 are based on simplistic extrapolations that ignore much of the real dynamic.

I just came back from a visit to some Chinese cities. Economies of many medium to large Chinese cities are now growing in excess of 15% a year, probably even 20% for cities like Shenzhen.

I think at least 100 million city people can reach Taiwan averages in about 7-8 years.

China should outstrip Japan in consumption at all levels - luxury and premium goods included, before 2015, at the current rate. Transformation is happening at all levels - productivity, fashion, civics, etc.

Any of you haven't visited China should pay a visit.

Visit Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Suzhou, and also inland cities like Chengdu, Chongqing.

Last edited by touchring; 1st November 2007 at 04:47 AM..
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