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Edwin 15th March 2006 09:28 AM

Future scenarios
 
Let's go on a journey to the future... at least, to a choice of possible futures, some of which are enough to set your heart racing faster


SETTING THE SCENE
IE7 is in widespread use (50%+ penetration), meaning that most web users can potentially access IDNs. Many large companies are making use of IDN in memorable advertising campaigns, and some have gone pure-IDN for their corporate websites. You're sitting on a portfolio of totally generic IDN in the key TLDs (.com and/or main ccTLD)

THE GLOOMY PESSIMIST'S SCENARIO
Click-through rates: 10% (approx 2x current levels)
Traffic: 5x current levels
CPC: No change (same as current levels)
OVERALL PICTURE: 10x improvement over current levels

THE PESSIMIST'S SCENARIO
Click-through rates: 15% (approx 3x current levels)
Traffic: 10x current levels
CPC: 50% more (1.5x current levels)
OVERALL PICTURE: 45x improvement over current levels

THE MODERATE'S SCENARIO
Click-through rates: 20% (approx 4x current levels)
Traffic: 20x current levels
CPC: 50% more (1.5x current levels)
OVERALL PICTURE: 120x improvement over current levels

THE OPTIMIST'S SCENARIO
Click-through rates: 25% (approx 5x current levels)
Traffic: 30x current levels
CPC: 100% more (2x current levels)
OVERALL PICTURE: 300x improvement over current levels

THE EXUBERENT OPTIMIST'S SCENARIO
Click-through rates: 30% (approx 6x current levels)
Traffic: 50x current levels
CPC: 150% more (2.5x current levels)
OVERALL PICTURE: 700x improvement over current levels

NOTES
Click-through rate is the % of visitors to a parking page who click on an ad.
Traffic is self-explanatory
CPC is the revenue generated per click

drbiohealth 15th March 2006 09:37 AM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Hi Edwin,

Well, the picture looks rosy. However, I am not sure if I am comfortable with those "Traffic" figures even after the introduction of IE7, though I am not complaining if it is like that .. :)

touchring 15th March 2006 09:42 AM

Re: Future scenarios
 
I think type-in will rise 10 times for abc idn domains, and 20-30 times for non-abc idn domains. Type-in will rise significantly much more in places like China when the authorities are pushing for it's popularity.

Rubber Duck 15th March 2006 10:16 AM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Don't agree with these scenario's I am afraid.

Click conversion rates in China are currently about 15% which compares favourably with ASCII.

Price per Click is much lower but this will rise although it is unlikely to reach US standards outside Japan in the immediate future. In Japan it could easily be more!

Traffic should reach a sensible proportion of comparable ASCII domains, which should push some of the better generics into Million per month, which is a far cry from 1-3 hits per day or even 50x current levels. Awareness and Content are going to the be two main drivers of traffic growth. If IDN actually starts to take over as the main URLs in Japan, China and Russia, you (Edwin) will make "The King" look like a rank amateur!

Explorer 15th March 2006 10:48 AM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Take that Yandex score, assume that 15% or 20% will be type ins, which is conservative. Then take this number and divide by the number of hits you get per month on that Russian IDN. Do it for several of them and see the range. I am coming up with 250-600 multiple.

Edwin 15th March 2006 11:14 AM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Traffic should reach a sensible proportion of comparable ASCII domains, which should push some of the better generics into Million per month, which is a far cry from 1-3 hits per day or even 50x current levels. Awareness and Content are going to the be two main drivers of traffic growth. If IDN actually starts to take over as the main URLs in Japan, China and Russia, you (Edwin) will make "The King" look like a rank amateur!

That's rather over-optimistic. I doubt there are even a dozen ASCII generics that get over 1 million PURE TYPEINS a month (with no "real" site, I mean, just parking pages). So the chances of seeing any IDN at that incredible level is zero. On the other hand, there's a loooooong way to go between here and there!

BTW, how are you getting a 15% CTR? Parking my Japanese IDN at NameDrive gives me an average of 4% CTR only...

Rubber Duck 15th March 2006 11:23 AM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Edwin
That's rather over-optimistic. I doubt there are even a dozen ASCII generics that get over 1 million PURE TYPEINS a month (with no "real" site, I mean, just parking pages). So the chances of seeing any IDN at that incredible level is zero. On the other hand, there's a loooooong way to go between here and there!

BTW, how are you getting a 15% CTR? Parking my Japanese IDN at NameDrive gives me an average of 4% CTR only...

Yes, that is typical and not just of Japanese, but then much of this traffic is North American Speculators, who are not that interested in typing-in. I know click through rates in China are much higher than this.

Rubber Duck

touchring 15th March 2006 11:25 AM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Edwin
That's rather over-optimistic. I doubt there are even a dozen ASCII generics that get over 1 million PURE TYPEINS a month (with no "real" site, I mean, just parking pages). So the chances of seeing any IDN at that incredible level is zero. On the other hand, there's a loooooong way to go between here and there!

BTW, how are you getting a 15% CTR? Parking my Japanese IDN at NameDrive gives me an average of 4% CTR only...


You have to see that people must be dozing off the PC to type-in your domain in chinese or japanese, and then switch key to insert a dot com. The chance of that happening might be 1 in 50,000. :) The probability of winning a small lottery prize is higher.

Even for European domains, to type in société.com instead of societe.com, that person must be typing very fast and not paying attention. Probably a 1 in 1000 chance.

IDN will take off gradually and slowly, there are many factors contributing to type-in, including the presence of major sites using idn - that may only happen when IE7 becomes mainstream.

Like the fetish.com that Dave sold, i won't be surprised if it gets 20-30 type-in a day when IE7 becomes mainstream 3-4 years down the road, and a 30% clickthru once we can find a japanese adult ppc provider.

If it's getting 1 or even 0.5 type-in a day on average today, then it will be 50 times increase.

Did someone say that IE7 will automatically put the .com, if that's true, that alone will increase type-in by a few folds.

hanidn 15th March 2006 01:49 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Good work...

My .com scenario:
A native IDN and native ads shows on the landing page and IE7 is in use 75%+ at the end of 2007…

One day traffic: Overture # * 0.015 / 30 days
Ave. click-through rates: 25%
World wide ave. PPC: 0.15 U$

0.015 = keyword type_in at the address box / overture uses – switch key to insert .com(50%)
IE7 bans isp's keyword site mapping service(in Korea) at the address box…

If you have OVT 100,000,
100,000 *0.015/30*0.25*0.15 = 1.88$ per day+ :)

Explorer 15th March 2006 02:09 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by hanidn
Good work...

My .com scenario:
A native IDN and native ads shows on the landing page and IE7 is in use 75%+ at the end of 2007…

One day traffic: Overture # * 0.015 / 30 days
Ave. click-through rates: 25%
Ave. PPC: 0.15 U$

0.015 = keyword type_in at the address box / overture uses – switch key to insert .com
IE7 bans isp's keyword site mapping service(in Korea) at the address box…

If you have OVT 100,000,
100,000 *0.015/30*0.25*0.15 = 1.88$ per day+ :)


I think you are off with "0.015 = keyword type_in at the address box / overture uses – switch key to insert .com" statement.

Some of the IDNs are earning 1.88$ TODAY.

Rubber Duck 15th March 2006 02:13 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Explorer
I think you are off with "0.015 = keyword type_in at the address box / overture uses – switch key to insert .com" statement.

Some of the IDNs are earning 1.88$ TODAY.

I would be happy with that amount, if it were anywhere typical for my portfolio.

I could rub along on £1M per year, until things got going!

touchring 15th March 2006 02:35 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
I've just discovered i've a few domains that get about 5-10 click throughs a day, but our idn ppc company pays me only 2 cents per click. I didn't know about the 48hr rule so joy turned to disappointment when my domain income shrunk to a third of original the next day!

So that scenario is possible in the very near future, but with a different PPC setup, or maybe by creating our own IDN parking cooperative.

Explorer 15th March 2006 02:52 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by touchring
I've just discovered i've a few domains that get about 5-10 click throughs a day, but our idn ppc company pays me only 2 cents per click. I didn't know about the 48hr rule so joy turned to disappointment when my domain income shrunk to a third of original the next day!

So that scenario is possible in the very near future, but with a different PPC setup, or maybe by creating our own IDN parking cooperative.


Makes one think about creating those pages with Adsense. At least to see how it compares not only with cents per click, but also with the number of overall clicks. The very fact that NameDrive's hits and earnings are so volatile across portfolios makes me wonder about the validity of the data provided to us.

Rubber Duck 15th March 2006 02:56 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Explorer
Makes one think about creating those pages with Adsense. At least to see how it compares not only with cents per click, but also with the number of overall clicks. The very fact that NameDrive's hits and earnings are so volatile across portfolios makes me wonder about the validity of the data provided to us.

There has been huge volatility in the last week, not just from Namedrive but from other sources as well. I am inclined to think that Google may have been experiencing difficulties during the last week. Perhaps they having been swapping servers or something that has resulted in widespread disruption.

touchring 15th March 2006 03:01 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Adsense definitely pays much more - i'm an adsense user, and even a medium keyword pays 30-50 cents on average. You can ask Jeff.

Explorer 15th March 2006 03:09 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
There has been huge volatility in the last week, not just from Namedrive but from other sources as well. I am inclined to think that Google may have been experiencing difficulties during the last week. Perhaps they having been swapping servers or something that has resulted in widespread disruption.


I'd hate to find out that IDN I sold is generating a lot more in a one-page Adsense thing than with NameDrive. And, if ND's is reporting lower number of hits, multiplied by lower cent per click...we get the picture.

touchring 15th March 2006 03:20 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Explorer
I'd hate to find out that IDN I sold is generating a lot more in a one-page Adsense thing than with NameDrive. And, if ND's is reporting lower number of hits, multiplied by lower cent per click...we get the picture.

I doubt there is intentional understatement unless due to the blocking effect from countries like China or server down due to DOS attacks, high traffic, etc.

gammascalper 15th March 2006 04:45 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
I can confirm Explorer's statement. I have one Japanese IDN set for $40 this month -- and that's after Google's darn 'smartpricing' :-)

The future is bright folks.

touchring 15th March 2006 04:58 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by gammascalper
I can confirm Explorer's statement. I have one Japanese IDN set for $40 this month -- and that's after Google's darn 'smartpricing' :-)

The future is bright folks.

How much did it earn on parking service?

Explorer 15th March 2006 05:05 PM

Re: Future scenarios
 
My Japanese IDNs are earning 80 cents per month total on NameDrive. That makes me wonder...


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