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Old 15th December 2007, 08:08 AM
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Climate deal sealed by US U-turn

Delegates at the UN summit in Bali have agreed a deal on curbing climate change after days of bitter wrangling.

Agreement was reached after a U-turn from the US, which had wanted firmer commitments from developing countries....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7145608.stm

So what really happened? Did China threaten not to lend them any more money, unless they Shut the F*ck Up?
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Old 15th December 2007, 11:12 AM
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Re: Climate deal sealed by US U-turn

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Delegates at the UN summit in Bali have agreed a deal on curbing climate change after days of bitter wrangling. Agreement was reached after a U-turn from the US, which had wanted firmer commitments from developing countries....http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7145608.stm
So what really happened? Did China threaten not to lend them any more money, unless they Shut the F*ck Up?
China has relied on a good business partnership with the US. Don't fool yourself for a second thinking that China doesn't need the US as their #1 export market. What do you think has been the major source of money that has fueled China's economic growth and job creation? No chance they are going to risk that by a massive shift that would trigger world economic markets. They could just end up on the losing end of that deal for a long, long time. I think the French are still stinging from the massive US consumer driven boycott of their products, travel and doing business with French owned companies a few short years ago.

China need to get onboard globally with their own currency reform. Their longterm plan was to tie the value of the yuan into a basket of world currencies, not just the dollar which would allow the yuan to gradually rise in value.
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Old 15th December 2007, 11:30 AM
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Re: Climate deal sealed by US U-turn

Yes, of course you are correct, and I was being flippant, but the US used to carry on as though it wasn't dependant on anyone and still does to a very large degree. That will have to change.

There also needs to be a recognition that China is not just about exports as no country is entirely about external trade. China like Japan is a major exporter, but also like Japan is an important market in its own right. And of course the US is not their only important market either.

The "where are they going to get the money" question, however, is extremely pertinent. This article seems to clarify to "coordinated central bank" intervention.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22222030

It seems that whilst $50 Billion in injected liquidity is going to be channelled through a lot of central banks, it is actually going to have to be Fed cash. Seems like a bit of a confidence trick on the markets if you ask me, but the money is going to be raised by the Auction of US Treasuries. The question is, who wants them? US Bonds are being junked at the moment. I very much doubt they will get full face value on paper bearing 4% designated in US dollars!

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
China has relied on a good business partnership with the US. Don't fool yourself for a second thinking that China doesn't need the US as their #1 export market. What do you think has been the major source of money that has fueled China's economic growth and job creation? No chance they are going to risk that by a massive shift that would trigger world economic markets. They could just end up on the losing end of that deal for a long, long time. I think the French are still stinging from the massive US consumer driven boycott of their products, travel and doing business with French owned companies a few short years ago.

China need to get onboard globally with their own currency reform. Their longterm plan was to tie the value of the yuan into a basket of world currencies, not just the dollar which would allow the yuan to gradually rise in value.
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Last edited by Rubber Duck; 15th December 2007 at 11:51 AM..
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Old 15th December 2007, 11:51 AM
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Re: Climate deal sealed by US U-turn

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
the US used to carry on as though it wasn't dependant on anyone and still does to a very large degree. That will have to change.
I could not agree more, and you will see that reflected in the upcoming 2008 US elections. At this point no one is much excited about the candidates, who range from bad to worse. And you will get no arguement from me that our economy is on a collison course with recession unless things change drastically. The term the bigger you are the harder you fall is also true in economics.

Todays picture of economic size (from Wikipedia) is going to change drastically in the next 10 years with the growth of China and India. It is going to be interesting to watch how they grow as "consumer" nations as well, as their economies rise.

United States $13,220,000,000,000
Japan $4,911,000,000,000
Germany $2,858,000,000,000
China $2,512,000,000,000
United Kingdom $2,341,000,000,000
France $2,154,000,000,000
Italy $1,780,000,000,000
Brazil $1,566,253,000,000
Canada $1,089,000,000,000
Spain $1,081,000,000,000
India $796,100,000,000
South Korea $768,500,000,000
Mexico $741,500,000,000
Russia $733,000,000,000
Australia $645,300,000,000

Last edited by bwhhisc; 15th December 2007 at 12:21 PM..
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Old 15th December 2007, 11:53 AM
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Re: Climate deal sealed by US U-turn

As all these are very dependant on currency exchange rates and because this has been a dynamic year, this years table when it emerges over the coming months will make very interesting reading.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
I could not agree more, and you will see that reflected in the upcoming 2008 US elections. At this point no one is much excited about the candidates, who range from bad to worse. And you will get no arguement from me that our economy is on a collison course with recession unless things change drastically. Todays picture of economic size (from Wikipedia) is going to change drastically in the next 10 years.

United States $13,220,000,000,000
Japan $4,911,000,000,000
Germany $2,858,000,000,000
China $2,512,000,000,000
United Kingdom $2,341,000,000,000
France $2,154,000,000,000
Italy $1,780,000,000,000
Brazil $1,566,253,000,000
Canada $1,089,000,000,000
Spain $1,081,000,000,000
India $796,100,000,000
South Korea $768,500,000,000
Mexico $741,500,000,000
Russia $733,000,000,000
Australia $645,300,000,000
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