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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 4th January 2008, 07:25 AM
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States of Delusion?

If the Japanese are in a blind panic about the US economy, why are the Yanks so optimistic?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7171011.stm

Japan's main stock index has fallen to its lowest close in 17 months after the strong yen and record-high oil prices worried investors.
Exporters including Sony and carmakers such as Nissan performed badly on concerns about the health of the US economy - a big market for Japan.

The Nikkei closed down 616.37 points, or 4.03%, at 14,691.41.

The frenetic trading session followed a week-long holiday for Japanese financial markets.
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Old 4th January 2008, 11:47 AM
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Re: States of Delusion?

You can't use Japan as a gauge, the stock market fell 20% for 2007.

I went to Tokyo in 2004, the department stores and malls are empty, there are lots of people walking in and out of the subway stations and going to work or home, but few people shopping.

In comparison, i also went to Shenzhen in 2004 and then Shanghai in early 2005, the malls are jam packed even on a weekday morning. Shenzhen is especially chaotic, and you can see that people are really spending.

Last edited by touchring; 4th January 2008 at 11:57 AM..
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Old 4th January 2008, 11:53 AM
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Re: States of Delusion?

The Chinese are very confident lately. They seem to be toying with the idea of Free Floating the Yuan.
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Old 4th January 2008, 12:02 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

You'll never know the real thing until you travel widely. But nowadays with youtube and phonecams, it is much easier to see what's going on out there.
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Old 4th January 2008, 12:13 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

How about Singapore touch? I heard that 避年 are in vogue among the young generation there instead of 过年. Where are you going to 避年 this year?

Last edited by markits; 4th January 2008 at 12:20 PM..
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Old 4th January 2008, 12:17 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

Don't think it is quite as simply as that. Travel helps to give a the scent, possibly even the flavour. If you want hard data in terms of representative surveys or research studies, there is nothing like going online. Of course you cannot always get what you want and you don't alway get the truth, but you can generally get a broader perspective that one person alone cannot formulate just by walking up and down the local high street. I realised a few years ago that there were whole social and technology trends that were just passing me by even though on the surface I inhabited the same social space. The World is just too big and too complex for individuals to fathom, without drawing on the experiences and research of others.
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Old 4th January 2008, 12:23 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

Quote:
Originally Posted by markits
How about Singapore touch? I heard that the young generation there are in vogue of 避年 instead of 过年. Where are you going to 避年 this year?

Singapore is quite diverse these days, there are more foriegners than local people. For example, there are maybe 1 million people from China here. Generally speaking, people spend most of their money on cars and houses, less on shopping, though definitely way much more than i see they do in Japan. But i can still remember the early 90s and late 80s when Japanese tourists in singapore were the big spenders - i've not gone to Japan then.

I'll be visiting Macau this coming lunar new year.

Last edited by touchring; 4th January 2008 at 12:39 PM..
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Old 4th January 2008, 01:24 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

US Employment data is melting down European Borses, and Wall Street is not even open yet!

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...e-76a785fb0b23
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Old 4th January 2008, 01:46 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

I think the leaders in Singapore are very smart. They established a solid relationship with China in the very first place. We all know that Taiwan leaders have been trying very hard to cut the ties with China, which in return badly damaged their economy.
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Old 4th January 2008, 02:06 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

Quote:
Originally Posted by markits
I think the leaders in Singapore are very smart. They established a solid relationship with China in the very first place. We all know that Taiwan leaders have been trying very hard to cut the ties with China, which in return badly damaged their economy.

Overall the economy benefits, the companies benefit, businesses benefit, but older blue collar workers are having a hard time. Taiwan as a democracy, will not be able to take an unpopulist route.
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Old 4th January 2008, 02:10 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

As long as the companies and businesses benefit, lots of job opportunities were created for white collars. Also, many Singaporeans are now working in China.
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Old 4th January 2008, 02:17 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

Another country that has been benefited from the Chinese growth is Australia. Official data shows that 30% of Western Australia economy growth are DIRECTLY originated from China. The total China factor may account for 50% of its growth.
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Old 4th January 2008, 03:28 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

Quote:
Originally Posted by markits
Another country that has been benefited from the Chinese growth is Australia. Official data shows that 30% of Western Australia economy growth are DIRECTLY originated from China. The total China factor may account for 50% of its growth.
Not hard to work out the link there.

China is massively increasing Steel output. Western Australia is the obvious supplier of Coal and Iron Ore!

Of course the dumb arsed US press points out that pollution per unit of GDP is higher in China than the US. Of course anyone with half a brain could figure, that would be influenced in the low unit costs in China, and that Primary Heavy Industries are going to be more polluting than Retail that makes up two thirds of the US economy!
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Old 4th January 2008, 04:24 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

It is truely amazing. I have never seen a place like Western Australia that is so depended on China in its economy. I have just attended an international business forum in Perth. Some WA official predictions here:
There will be 300,000 labor shortage in WA in the next 10 years including 180k skilled workers. This problem can be immediately eased by stopping business with China (the total WA population is 1.8 million).
The 2008 WA GDP growth is estimated to be 10%.
The 2008 WA median house price will be the highest across Australia (it was the lowest back three years ago).
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Old 4th January 2008, 06:05 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

I imagine as India keeps on its pace, the WA would have even faster growth.

It will be interesting to see if Australia and Canada liberalize their work and immigration policies to take advantage of India/ China role in their GDP growth.…

Additionally, it would seem Indians and Chinese will create large business centers for themselves in Africa..........
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Old 4th January 2008, 06:25 PM
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Re: States of Delusion?

sbe18,
You apparantly do not have the right concept about "China" and "India".
Have you actually visited both China and India?
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