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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12th January 2008, 10:50 AM
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Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Losses arising from America’s housing recession could triple over the next few years and they represent the greatest threat to growth in the United States, one of the world’s leading economists has told The Times.

Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, predicted that there was a very real possibility that the US would be plunged into a Japan-style slump, with house prices declining for years.

Professor Shiller, co-founder of the respected S&P Case/Shiller house-price index, said: “American real estate values have already lost around $1 trillion [£503 billion]. That could easily increase threefold over the next few years. This is a much bigger issue than sub-prime. We are talking trillions of dollars’ worth of losses.” .....

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3111659.ece
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Old 12th January 2008, 11:21 AM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Depression anyone..??
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Old 12th January 2008, 11:53 AM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by seamo
Depression anyone..??
Keep your cash for a while - soon when banks refuse to give mortgages to anyone who doesn't have 100% collateral, you will be able to pay cash for houses and get them very cheaply.

I lived through these times in the mid 80s to early 90s in the US. No jobs, no money, no loans, not a damned thing. People who had cash bought all the valuable property cheaply and reaped mega returns starting in the mid 90s.

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Old 12th January 2008, 12:46 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

I think the climb outs in the property markets in US and Britain are 4 to 5 years away.

Even if they crash hard, stay well clear until the green shoots appear.

In the meantime either get into Eastern Europe or stick with your IDN.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jacksonm
Keep your cash for a while - soon when banks refuse to give mortgages to anyone who doesn't have 100% collateral, you will be able to pay cash for houses and get them very cheaply.

I lived through these times in the mid 80s to early 90s in the US. No jobs, no money, no loans, not a damned thing. People who had cash bought all the valuable property cheaply and reaped mega returns starting in the mid 90s.

.
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Old 12th January 2008, 12:54 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

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Originally Posted by seamo
Depression anyone..??

Stagflation more probably. Depression combined with inflation.

Unemployment + falling equities + falling home values + rising living costs.
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Old 12th January 2008, 01:29 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Stagflation more probably. Depression combined with inflation.

Unemployment + falling equities + falling home values + rising living costs.
I think you will find depression means dropping prices.

That won't happen in the early part of the cycle but yes, it could very well happen further down the road.

Advertising though will keep going. The tougher it gets the more advertising there will be. Advertising revenues do not dry up in recession.

Depression mean concentration of wealth back into the hands of the rich, which hopeful will include us.
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Old 12th January 2008, 03:38 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Surely, Iran can't wait for oil to hit $200. Their speed boat act already shows that intention.
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Old 12th January 2008, 04:38 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

I lived through the last 2000 recession. So small that most people didn't feel a thing... But I'd like to learn more about 70's inflation era.
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Old 12th January 2008, 04:40 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by kenne
I lived through the last 2000 recession. So small that most people didn't feel a thing... But I'd like to learn more about 70's inflation era.
Well a lot are going to be picking up some first hand life experience over the next decade. That much is for sure!
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Old 12th January 2008, 05:58 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by kenne
I lived through the last 2000 recession. So small that most people didn't feel a thing... But I'd like to learn more about 70's inflation era.

The closest recession to what will come in the US would be the Asian financial crisis. Also, a recession caused by a real estate bubble and financial meltdown.

The financial crisis will bottom out when banks that are broke are either closed down or merged with other banks.

The real estate part will end when the most expensive of them all are down by at least 35% (this is the best case scenario) from their peak, i.e. Manhattan for the case of the USA. And since this has not started, there is a long way to go, probably takes another 3 years at least for a huge economy to work itself out.

The Asian financial crisis also affected Singapore, but only very moderately, the banks were solvent and had plenty of money, only one small bank had to be bought over by a bigger bank - a consolidation pressed by the government and not because of bankruptcy. Real estate prices came down about 35%-40% in the aftermath across the board, from luxury to budget. There was some unemployment but aside from people that lost money in stocks and investment that dropped like 40% (only deadly if you borrowed to invest), generally speaking, the economy wasn't gloomy.

Last edited by touchring; 12th January 2008 at 06:12 PM..
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Old 12th January 2008, 06:15 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

The problem in the US is mainly structural.

An economy is a bit like a train. There is the Wealth generating part of the economy which acts like the locomotive, and then there is coaches and the guards van which correspond to the wealth distribution and wealth destruction elements.

The problem is in the US there is just too much train and not enough locomotive. We have reached an incline and the loco is just not big enough to pull the rest of the train. The only solution is going to be to unhitch the back third of the train, until such time as somebody can come up with the cash to buy a new more powerful locomotive.

The biggest problem the US faces is that if it continues to cut interest rates, rather than stimulating its own economy, it will become the carry trade centre of the Universe. What is left of US saving will be invested in Asia. The way things are going they may have to implement currency controls, which won't do much for the dollars standing as the International Reserve Currency.

Of course there are other means of stimulating the economy. The Government can pump money in. But the problem is where is the US Government going to get money from? It is going to struggle to borrow from abroad on favourable terms. Even it domestic banks are falling into foreign ownership. If it takes the money from the tax payer, it will do more harm than good. If it prints money that is inflationary. Dubya will think of something. The problem is does the World trust him?
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Old 12th January 2008, 06:20 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Don't worry, Hillary will be giving Dubya the boot soon enough.

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Old 12th January 2008, 06:22 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by jacksonm
Don't worry, Hillary will be giving Dubya the boot soon enough.

.
The problem is she won't have the reigns until this time next year.

Action was really required this time last year and preferably a lot sooner than that!
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Old 12th January 2008, 06:43 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Surely, Iran can't wait for oil to hit $200. Their speed boat act already shows that intention.
Iranian speedboats always intercept ships in that area. No big deal.

The neocons made a big deal out of this one BECAUSE they wanted to make a big deal. And they're being called on it.
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Old 12th January 2008, 06:59 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

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Originally Posted by Drewbert
Iranian speedboats always intercept ships in that area. No big deal.

The neocons made a big deal out of this one BECAUSE they wanted to make a big deal. And they're being called on it.

Possible, but i also read that every dollar increase in oil, the Iranian government gets an additional billion in oil profit. So it is in their interest to heighten the tension as far as possible w/o getting into real war.
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Old 12th January 2008, 08:05 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Possible, but i also read that every dollar increase in oil, the Iranian government gets an additional billion in oil profit. So it is in their interest to heighten the tension as far as possible w/o getting into real war.
OK. I'll buy that.

And since Bush and Cheney are oil men, it's in their best interests as well.

Which is why you should NEVER install oil men into the Presidency. And that goes for Bush too.
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Old 12th January 2008, 08:42 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

I wouldn't be surprised if the Halliburton getting installed in Dubai isn't making the Iranians nervous. Didn't Bush go into Iraq on their say so?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewbert
OK. I'll buy that.

And since Bush and Cheney are oil men, it's in their best interests as well.

Which is why you should NEVER install oil men into the Presidency. And that goes for Bush too.
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Old 12th January 2008, 08:52 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Losses arising from America’s housing recession could triple over the next few years and they represent the greatest threat to growth in the United States, one of the world’s leading economists has told The Times.
Rubber Duck, I guess it's going to change a lot in the US economy. If this is correct we'll see all these changes ourselves in the coming years. But right now I got 1 question - how the recession is going to change domaining?
- I think that .com might loose its value, it'll still be a king, but may be one of many kings?
- ccTlds might increase their value - at least some of them and become alternative kings?
- IDN will probable increase their value - it doesn't depend on the US economy, but the recession can accelerate the process?
- What about .us?
- Any other suggestions/predictions?

I'd apreciate if you can share some of your thoughts.

Thanks.
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Old 12th January 2008, 09:06 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

I don't think that the value of good dot coms is going down in absolute terms. Domains are an alternative investment. When Wall Street and the Housing Market are both in serious trouble alternative investments will come to the fore Gold, Art, Domains etc.

Crap dot com have had their day, and the dot Mobi craze is dead in the water along with much of the long tail on dot Info. Dead beat wannabees at the lower end will just run out of cash and belief.

Dot US will gradually assert itself along with all ccTLDs. Some markets ccTLDs will be stronger than dot com, but in most dot com will be King Pin.

The demise of the US as the economic power house will trigger a long overdue re-evaluation of fundamentals. The US economy is about 25% of the World total. It is going to come out of this recession at probably around little more than half of that. Some of it will be due to contraction, the rest will be the field whizzing past it in the pit lane. The loss of status of the dollar as the World's Reserve Currency is going to have a major impact, as will be cost cutting that will inevitably have to go on in relation to defence. The American's have an impressive capability but it is doubtful that they can really sustain things the way they are.

America will have to redefine its role in the World. As a nation you simply cannot just shop your way to success. Above all, dependence on oil needs to be substantially reduced. The next President needs to be a lot greener than the last one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by xpresto
Rubber Duck, I guess it's going to change a lot in the US economy. If this is correct we'll see all these changes ourselves in the coming years. But right now I got 1 question - how the recession is going to change domaining?
- I think that .com might loose its value, it'll still be a king, but may be one of many kings?
- ccTlds might increase their value - at least some of them and become alternative kings?
- IDN will probable increase their value - it doesn't depend on the US economy, but the recession can accelerate the process?
- What about .us?
- Any other suggestions/predictions?

I'd apreciate if you can share some of your thoughts.

Thanks.
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Old 12th January 2008, 10:03 PM
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Re: Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
I don't think that the value of good dot coms is going down in absolute terms. Domains are an alternative investment. When Wall Street and the Housing Market are both in serious trouble alternative investments will come to the fore Gold, Art, Domains etc.
Good post, Rubber Duck. Thanks :-)
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