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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 26th January 2008, 08:05 AM
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Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

This guy Chi Hung KWAN seems to understand the Chinese economy. He certainly understands it better than any of the Western Commentators.

This is one interesting recent article:

http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/china/07091101.html

More article here:

http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/fellow_act...kan-si-yu.html
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Old 26th January 2008, 09:32 AM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
This guy Chi Hung KWAN seems to understand the Chinese economy. He certainly understands it better than any of the Western Commentators. This is one interesting recent article:
http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/china/07091101.html
More article here:
http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/fellow_act...kan-si-yu.html
The percentages have to be tempered with the fact that the hourly wage for most low end and factory
worker jobs in rural China are reported to be less that .30 cents per hour. That does not leave a lot for
discretionary income.

Last edited by bwhhisc; 26th January 2008 at 09:37 AM..
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Old 26th January 2008, 09:41 AM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
The percentages have to be tempered with the fact that the hourly wage for most low end and factory
worker jobs in rural China are reported to be less that .30 cents per hour.
The crux of most of his recent commentary, is that the Chinese currency has depreciate by 80% against the dollar in real terms in recent years, and this is not really anything to do with policy but the massive supply of cheap labour. He now asserts that the supply of cheap labour is drying up and that wages are going to have to increase significantly. He argues that this is going to start a massive appreciation of the Yuan, which will be the main mechanism by which in dollar terms the Chinese Economy will become the biggest in the World. What he is says is underlined by your point, not contradicted by it.
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Last edited by Rubber Duck; 26th January 2008 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 26th January 2008, 10:05 AM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
The percentages have to be tempered with the fact that the hourly wage for most low end and factory
worker jobs in rural China are reported to be less that .30 cents per hour. That does not leave a lot for
discretionary income.

People earning 500 yuan a mth or less going to have a hard time this year. If they are not careful, it will be Tiananmen 2.0....
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Old 26th January 2008, 10:19 AM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
People earning 500 yuan a mth or less going to have a hard time this year. If they are not careful, it will be Tiananmen 2.0....
The poor are extremely poor and the rich are extremely rich in China. Exploitation at its best!
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Old 26th January 2008, 10:44 AM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
If they are not careful, it will be Tiananmen 2.0....
I think a revolution of pissed off people vs. government fiscal policies is not too far off in the US as well.
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Old 26th January 2008, 10:49 AM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
I think a revolution of pissed off people is not too far off in the US as well.
That is the one consolation about it being election year. It means that people have hope for change and are not likely to take to the street.

In terms of providing the right environment to encourage sound political decision making, it is a tragedy.
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Old 26th January 2008, 11:04 AM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
That is the one consolation about it being election year. It means that people have hope for change and are not likely to take to the street. In terms of providing the right environment to encourage sound political decision making, it is a tragedy.
Most US citizens realize that regardless of who gets elected its going to be the same old shit, just a different flavor.
Look what happened when the democrats took over congress on a platform of change, fiscal responsiblity and slowing
down funding in Iraq etc. They whole mass just rolled over and held their ankles. Things will change drastically over the
next 5 years on the US political scene.
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Old 27th January 2008, 03:18 PM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
Most US citizens realize that regardless of who gets elected its going to be the same old shit, just a different flavor.
Look what happened when the democrats took over congress on a platform of change, fiscal responsiblity and slowing
down funding in Iraq etc. They whole mass just rolled over and held their ankles. Things will change drastically over the
next 5 years on the US political scene.


What the US now needs is fiscal prudence, raise taxes, raise interest rates, cut consumption (especially junk food), boost productivity, and educate more engineers.

What elected government can do this?

None.

So, there's no solution at sight.

The Germans, which also had economic issues in the 20s, thought they found one, Hitler, but he turned out to be a lunatic.
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Old 27th January 2008, 03:23 PM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

What the World needs is for the US economy to sink in a controlled fashion so we can all get clear of the draw down zone.
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Old 27th January 2008, 03:43 PM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
So, there's no solution at sight.
The US is a resourceful nation of immigrants...I wouldn't count them out.
Our politicians just need a good thrashing to come to their senses.
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Old 27th January 2008, 03:44 PM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
The US is a resourceful nation of immigrants...and doesn't like words like "can't" and "no".
Maybe, but experience has shown there is a lot more to economic regeneration than just pumping money into the system.
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Last edited by Rubber Duck; 27th January 2008 at 03:51 PM..
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Old 27th January 2008, 05:39 PM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

What I don't understand is the tremendous amounts of money that americans are still spending. I was out in the San Fernando Valley yesterday, the malls were jammed with people buying like there was no tomorrow. And with the gas prices so high, the amount of people on the roads was unbelievable. Perhaps it was due to a break in the weather, but I was actually shocked... it was christmas at Macy's ...
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Old 27th January 2008, 05:47 PM
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Re: Somebody who understand the Chinese Conundrum

Quote:
Originally Posted by phio
What I don't understand is the tremendous amounts of money that americans are still spending. I was out in the San Fernando Valley yesterday, the malls were jammed with people buying like there was no tomorrow. And with the gas prices so high, the amount of people on the roads was unbelievable. Perhaps it was due to a break in the weather, but I was actually shocked... it was christmas at Macy's ...
Just my point, the last thing the US Consumer needs stimulating.
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