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Old 22nd March 2006, 06:58 PM
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Estimated Traffic Increase

Hi,

If you were to estimate the traffic growth excpected out of IDN's i.e once IE7 is on the market for a year what % growth would you estimate in comparesment to today's traffic...

10 times?
100 times?
1000 times?
More?

Please try and explain how you get to the estimated numbers

Regards,
Michael
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Old 22nd March 2006, 07:24 PM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

Quote:
Originally Posted by 261275
Hi,

If you were to estimate the traffic growth excpected out of IDN's i.e once IE7 is on the market for a year what % growth would you estimate in comparesment to today's traffic...

10 times?
100 times?
1000 times?
More?

Please try and explain how you get to the estimated numbers

Regards,
Michael
I am a little obessed with that number, as I am trying to figure out the true values of IDNs.

With lots of different approaches, I get to the multiple of several hundred for Latin-based IDNs. I take ASCII's traffic, assume conservatively that 10% of that will be typing in the "true" generic term, which is an IDN that I own, and divide by the number of hits I get now. Now, that 10% assumption is very tricky. Can it be more? Sure. But not right away and you also have to consider that ASCII is a site with traffic from search engines and links.

For Asian IDNs, the multiple is a lot higher, since the current traffic on top generics is small.
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Old 22nd March 2006, 08:38 PM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

I tend to view the potential using a few different factors:

1 - Traffic increase expected from IE7. Using Russian domains as an example, the amount of traffic increase depends on the number of people with IDN enabled browsers currently. Is it 4%, 2%, <1%? Assuming 4% gives you a 25x increase with IE7 - once everyone has converted. That may be too conservative as I really don't know the exposure of IDN enabled browsers in Russia. More difficult to gauge with Asian domains since traffic is mostly North American.

2 - Increased percentage of click-thrus due to native language ads.

3 - Increased revenue from relevent ad content.

Factoring all these in will give you an estimated increase in revenue. I hoping for at least 200x. Hopefully that's conservative.
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Old 22nd March 2006, 08:51 PM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

I agree, there are several tools and approaches. Just FYI, Spanish-speaking internet audience has a MSIE market share of 97.5% or so. So, that means that only 2.5% are able to type in IDNs. Also, keep in mind that of those 2.5% very few people know that CAN type in IDNs and find some content on the other side.
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Old 22nd March 2006, 08:55 PM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

Quote:
I agree, there are several tools and approaches. Just FYI, Spanish-speaking internet audience has a MSIE market share of 97.5% or so. So, that means that only 2.5% are able to type in IDNs. Also, keep in mind that of those 2.5% very few people know that CAN type in IDNs and find some content on the other side.
Yes, hopefully that number is more like 40x or even 100x.
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Old 22nd March 2006, 09:03 PM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

Specifically for russian...if wanting to get some kind of a figure in mind...would you add all wordstat numbers or us inventory?

Also, Then theres the .com vs .net factor...
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Old 22nd March 2006, 09:06 PM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

Quote:
Originally Posted by 261275
Specifically for russian...if wanting to get some kind of a figure in mind...would you add all wordstat numbers or us inventory?
I think that US OVT inventory has very little to do with the Russian market and earnings power. It's all about local. So, base your research and predictions on that Yandex score and discard US OVT.
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Old 23rd March 2006, 05:04 AM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

STATISTICS ON BROWSER USAGE IN RUSSIA

MSIE6........64.52%
MSIE5........19.02%
MSIE5.5 ......7.02%
MSIE4.........0.58%

OPERA7........3,63%
OPERA8........0.31%
NETSCAPE7.....0.19%
OTHER......,..0.24%
NETSCAPE4.7...0.16%

OS USED

XP.....49.15%
W98....25.61%
W2000..21.03%
MAC.....0.62%
W95.....0.55%
LINUX...0.42%


USAGE BY CITY


MOSCOW..........51.21%
ST.PETERSBURG...10.09%
EKATERINBURG.....2.32%
OTHER CITIES ALL LESS THAN 2% EACH,

http://globalstats.hotlog.ru/

Last edited by blastfromthepast; 23rd March 2006 at 03:43 PM..
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Old 23rd March 2006, 09:04 AM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

Nice work! It would appear from that the Interenet doesn't really exist outside Moscow and St Petersburg and there is very little use of alternative browsers.
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Old 23rd March 2006, 09:09 AM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

The city versus rural gap in Russia looks significant - seems that the 10 million people in Moscow owns more than half of the internet connection of the whole country.
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Old 23rd March 2006, 12:38 PM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

I am a little skeptical about those stats. First of all, MSIE5 and MSIE 5.5 combined represent 26%. That seems high and could have been true a couple of years ago, which means 2 centuries in terms of Internet time.
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Old 23rd March 2006, 03:51 PM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

Quote:
Originally Posted by Explorer
I am a little skeptical about those stats. First of all, MSIE5 and MSIE 5.5 combined represent 26%. That seems high and could have been true a couple of years ago, which means 2 centuries in terms of Internet time.
I would trust the stats. They are from a huge banner and log sharing site. They are daily stats for one day.

They were updated again today to show stats for March 21, 2006. MSIE5 and 5.5 are 19.02% and 7.02%.

http://globalstats.hotlog.ru/
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Old 23rd March 2006, 06:24 PM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

I wouldn't be surprised since a large majority of people in russia are on dialup, so it would take a long time to download IE6. Opera otoh, has a much smaller installation file.
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Old 23rd March 2006, 06:41 PM
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Re: Estimated Traffic Increase

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
I wouldn't be surprised since a large majority of people in russia are on dialup, so it would take a long time to download IE6. Opera otoh, has a much smaller installation file.
once they start getting broadband wham! We'll be sitting here waiting for them on our idn's selling them streaming video content and what not :P
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