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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12th February 2008, 05:26 AM
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Group Think

This occurs when a focus group reinforce the beliefs of others within a group, who then help to reassure those who have previously done the reassuring. To some extent it is all part of the same psychology that creates booms and busts. We all have an inherent internal programming to do this. You can see this at work in the domain world already, with dot Mobi and LLLL.com and .net. It even happens in the US Government. Nobody wants a recession in election so they have simply convinced themselves that this is not going to happen.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bonds...11148320080211

However, in the process of losing their grip on reality they almost certainly jettisoned any hope they might have had of influencing events. At best, all they can do is hope to con the public into another 4 years of disastrous Republican Administration, but even that is a long shot. The problem is, even if they win they haven't got a clue what will need to be done next. Furthermore, they may take in a gullible US public but they won't be able to con the markets too much longer. When they are seen to be exposed those markets will cut them down like wheat.
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Old 12th February 2008, 06:28 AM
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Re: Group Think

It even happens with Rubber Duck. Rubber Duck wants a recession in the US so he has simply convinced himself that this is going to happen.

However, in the process of losing his grip on reality he has almost certainly jettisoned any hope he might have had of influencing events. At best, all he can do is hope to con the IDNF public into reading another 400 posts about the disastrous US economy, but even that is a long shot. The problem is, even if he gets rich with IDNs he hasn't got a clue where the economy will turn next. Furthermore, he may take in a gullible newbie but he won't be able to interest IDNers on the forum too much longer. When he is exposed he gets angry even though IDNers who don't want to read more posts about the economy cut him down like cornflakes.
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Old 12th February 2008, 06:33 AM
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Re: Group Think

Lol, too funny..
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Old 12th February 2008, 07:10 AM
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Re: Group Think

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Old 12th February 2008, 07:18 AM
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Re: Group Think

Actually, from my point of view things are getting a little weird in the US. There is something in the air...people are pretty stressed here in LA LA land, with the traffic, and the amount of shit they have to do each day, fear of loss of jobs due to the huge offshoring and onshoring that is going on...and overpopulation...strange times right now. I'm ready to pack it up and head out to the coast of argentina or somewhere like that. I wonder if they have fiberoptic/DSL down there.
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Old 12th February 2008, 07:33 AM
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Re: Group Think

Nice Skit. However, there is a serious point here.

The US problem was a credit crunch. That means that lenders don't want to lend because the Risk Reward equation is out of balance. It means that rewards are not adequate for the risk lenders are expected to take on, so they simply stopped lending. Bush has reasoned rightly that in order to get the economy firing on all cylinders that he needs more more going into the economy. The problem is that is just not going to happen, and the efforts that he has made to encourage people to borrow and spend more will only serve to make lenders more reluctant to lend. We have already seen the effects of the reduce reserve base of US banks in the UK. They are actually cutting credit to those that have no significant debt because in order to make the profits they need to survive they need to leverage their eroded capital bases by lending to more high risk borrowers at higher interest rates. The whole thing is getting extremely unstable.

What amuses me is that the problem originates in the states but US commentary is all about Europe and Asia. Some "analysts" are now predicting lower growth in the Europe than in the US. Europe's only problem is the US. It totally irrational that outside the UK Europe would be more severely affected than the US itself.

Basically people are reinforcing others willingness to believe what they want to believe. You really are all living in La La Land.


Quote:
Originally Posted by blastfromthepast
It even happens with Rubber Duck. Rubber Duck wants a recession in the US so he has simply convinced himself that this is going to happen.

However, in the process of losing his grip on reality he has almost certainly jettisoned any hope he might have had of influencing events. At best, all he can do is hope to con the IDNF public into reading another 400 posts about the disastrous US economy, but even that is a long shot. The problem is, even if he gets rich with IDNs he hasn't got a clue where the economy will turn next. Furthermore, he may take in a gullible newbie but he won't be able to interest IDNers on the forum too much longer. When he is exposed he gets angry even though IDNers who don't want to read more posts about the economy cut him down like cornflakes.
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Old 12th February 2008, 07:48 AM
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Re: Group Think

You certainly are funny, Dan! Thanks for making me chuckle.

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Old 12th February 2008, 08:02 AM
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Re: Group Think

no funny pic or tube to go along? LOL
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Old 12th February 2008, 09:13 AM
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Re: Group Think

Nice sense of humor Dan. After years of continually predicting a recession eventually the pundits will be right...this year or next year, and repeating again 5 or 10 years from now. This year by most expert accounts is shaping up like a good candidate for even a worldwide recession. The unknown is how severe these recessions will be. Even the harshest economists don't see the total financial collapse and bankers being put in jail scenerios that have been tossed around here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Europe's only problem is the US.
I would have chose Iran as that candidate.

Last edited by bwhhisc; 12th February 2008 at 09:35 AM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 12th February 2008, 09:59 AM
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Re: Group Think

AIG: the horror
Robert Peston 12 Feb 08, 08:54 AM If you want to understand why the world’s investors and financial institutions are so jittery about the outlook for financial markets, you should click on http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...y48487e8vk.htm.

It’s yesterday’s announcement by AIG, the vast US insurer, that it has been over-valuing insurance it has provided to bonds linked to US sub-prime lending.

AIG disclosed that it has increased its estimate of losses by just under $5bn for the October and November accounting months for its exposure to sub-prime related investments.

To be honest, you probably would not gather that from a casual reading of AIG’s statement – which is written in the most technical of language, explaining how it uses a “modified Binomial Expansion Technique” to value its portfolio of “super senior credit default swaps”, but seems to have taken too little account of the fall in “cash bond prices for securities in the underlying collateral pools”.

Here is my translation: in valuing the claims that may be made on the insurance it has provided to collateralised debt obligations, it relied too heavily on its own internally generated valuations and loss estimates, and seems to have taken too little account of the market price of asset-backed securities.

In the jargon, it was “marking to model” rather than “marking to market” – and in the process, it was understating losses.

Anyone can grasp the significance of this killer clause in AIG’s statement: “AIG has been advised by its independent auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC, that they have concluded that at December 31 2007 AIG had a material weakness in its internal control over financial reporting and oversight relating to the fair value valuation” of all that CDO insurance.

What are the implications? Well, here are a few:

1) It suggests that the latitude given to insurers and banks by financial regulators over methods for valuing CDOs and other complex investments may have been misguided and misplaced.

2) It raises questions about whether other banks and insurers have been over-valuing their exposure to sub-prime. There will be particular concerns about those financial institutions which have tended to mark to model rather than to market (you know who you are).

3) It highlights the frightening potential size of the capital deficit at the so-called monoline insurers like Ambac and MBIA which specialised in insuring CDOs and other bonds.

But, for me, what is most important is the declaration of independence by PWC, the auditor. PWC has made it clear that it will not participate in any fudging of the scale of the sub-prime disaster – even where full and painful disclosure has the potential to undermine market confidence.

So in the coming few weeks the very worst of the losses from banks and insurers should be on display for all of us to see in their gory detail – and there may yet be further unanticipated horrors.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/
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Old 12th February 2008, 11:23 AM
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Re: Group Think

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
Nice sense of humor Dan. After years of continually predicting a recession eventually the pundits will be right...this year or next year, and repeating again 5 or 10 years from now. This year by most expert accounts is shaping up like a good candidate for even a worldwide recession. The unknown is how severe these recessions will be. Even the harshest economists don't see the total financial collapse and bankers being put in jail scenerios that have been tossed around here.


I would have chose Iran as that candidate.

I would have thought that Europe's main problem is Russia. Iran is Israel's problem.

Is George Soros american?

He had something to say at the Davos conference:

Quote:
When George Soros says that the world is facing its worst financial crisis since the second world war, businessmen, politicians and the public pay attention. This, after all, is the man who famously made $1 billion betting against the pound in 1992.

The 77-year-old investor issued his dire warning at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week amid increasing volatility in the world financial markets, but before the huge losses at Société Générale had become public.

“The current crisis is not only the bust that follows the housing boom,” he said. “It’s basically the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit expansion.”

Now the party is grinding to a halt and the hangover will be a humdinger. “Credit expansion must now be followed by a period of contraction,” he claimed. “A recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable.” The effect was likely to be contagious and infect the whole globe. It was, he concluded, the “end of an era”.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3257268.ece
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Old 12th February 2008, 11:41 AM
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Re: Group Think

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Is George Soros american?
http://www.georgesoros.com/

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Old 12th February 2008, 11:45 AM
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Re: Group Think

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
I would have thought that Europe's main problem is Russia. Iran is Israel's problem. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3257268.ece
Iran's religious rulers have "issues" with everyone that is not of the Muslim faith.
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Old 12th February 2008, 11:50 AM
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Re: Group Think

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
Iran's religious rulers have "issues" with everyone that is not of the Muslim faith.
I would say that fanatical religious leaders / teachers (regardless of faith) have issues with those not of the Faith .. It's not an 'Iran specific' thing and so feel it's wrong to single out just one country

Last edited by mulligan; 12th February 2008 at 11:55 AM..
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Old 12th February 2008, 11:51 AM
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Re: Group Think

Quote:
Originally Posted by mulligan
I would say that fanatical Muslim leaders have issues with those not of the Faith .. It's not an 'Iran specific' thing
I agree.

In fact, any fanatic has issues with those who are not of his faith, not just muslim fanatics.

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Old 12th February 2008, 11:55 AM
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Re: Group Think

Quote:
Originally Posted by mulligan
I would say that fanatical Muslim leaders / teachers have issues with those not of the Faith .. It's not an 'Iran specific' thing and so feel it's wrong to single out just one country
Many feel Iran is the "breeding ground" and financier whose messengers spread hate and many are at the root of terrorist activities.
It is reasonable to believe that the world is a more dangerous place if they have nuclear weapons in their arsenal.
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Old 12th February 2008, 12:04 PM
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Re: Group Think

Iranian movement might look religious, but i think it is more to do with ethnic supremacy than religion itself. It is primarily an ethnic movement with a religious flavor and endorsement.

Religion, whatsoever, the Iranians want the world to know that it is the Persians that are the overlords of the region.

In a certain sense, the ethnic movement in Iran is not unlike what is happening in China.

The difference is that Iran's region includes the Persian Gulf, which is where the world's oil riches reside, and this brings it into direct conflict with the Americans and the Europeans. America fears Iranian control over oil resources greater than the terrorists, which are inconsequential no matter what they do.

In this sense, the conflict is more political than religious.

Last edited by touchring; 12th February 2008 at 12:22 PM..
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Old 12th February 2008, 12:30 PM
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Re: Group Think

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
Many feel Iran is the "breeding ground" and financier whose messengers spread hate and many are at the root of terrorist activities.
It is reasonable to believe that the world is a more dangerous place if they have nuclear weapons in their arsenal.
Is this the line run out by CNN? .. (note I have edited my previous post.)

Consider how Iran .. for example .. has been treated by the west .. 'Got oil? huh? .. got mineral resources? huh? got anything we may happen to want? huh?' We want it and if you dont give it to us 'nicely' we will take it by any means necessary ..

Want to develop an alternative energy source? You are in the wrong part of the world so we don't trust you to use it for legitimate purposes .. you wanna fuck with us? You looking at 'me'? Don't fuck with us because we will send our sons and daughters to 'fuck you up' .. even though many of tham may not be able to get home for Christmas because they'll be in body bags ... and it's quite hard to eat turkey in a body bag .. But it's the numbers that count .. right? A 25 to 1 kill ratio is probably accaptable so lets take the hit and fuck these motherfuckers up .. Try telling that to a 'body-bagged' Mother!
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Old 12th February 2008, 12:48 PM
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Re: Group Think

Quote:
Originally Posted by mulligan
Is this the line run out by CNN? .. (note I have edited my previous post.)
Nope, just the opinion of just about all the countries in Europe including Germany, England, Spain and France etc.
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Old 12th February 2008, 12:51 PM
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Re: Group Think

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
Many feel Iran is the "breeding ground" and financier whose messengers spread hate and many are at the root of terrorist activities.
It is reasonable to believe that the world is a more dangerous place if they have nuclear weapons in their arsenal.

Actually, I think that a small-to-moderate number of radical teachers from this group have been implicated for breeding the mind problems more than any other group:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabi


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