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Old 5th April 2008, 06:12 AM
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Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

After 2.5 years on this forum, i think that the herd instinct for newbies IDNers is quite serious, even more so than ASCII. People generally don't know what they are doing and just follow.

1). When RD and Giant starting buying Chinese names back in 2003 and 2004 - they didn't follow people. At that time, nobody wanted them, there was no traffic, IE looks like it will never support IDN (there was like hope), and so both of them scooped the best. Today, you see CNNIC promoting IDNs and companies advertising themselves using IDNs. What a big contrast. This is what i call foresight.

2). When me and idn started catching those prime arabics that expired and dropped in 2005/early 2006, we were practically the only ones doing it and it was very time consuming. idn is better, he started in sept or was it august?

There are many more cases, which i won't mention.

IDNs are even more volatile than stocks, if you buy when everyone is rushing in as a crowd, the price goes up 50x. How can you profit after the price has gone up 50x??

Bottomline, if you want to make money, you have to have a mind of your own, make you own rational conclusion.

IDN is currently in its infancy stage, a lot of natives don't know about idn or don't know their value. Big corps CEO in China, Korea, Japan may not have heard about IDNs. The big money is not in yet. You cannot base your decision on what the handful of us here are doing. We're only small speculators flipping to one another.

Food for though - this is what the Pizza.com seller said:

Quote:
He said he now regretted not buying more domain names in the 1990s.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7331042.stm


By the way, when i say identifying value, i don't mean registering all those secondary extensions like .net, .org, .biz, or but rather, register or buy niche product and business names and in languages which you think there is end user demand in the future.

Asian businesses, especially so for Korean, and then followed by the Chinese and Japanese, are very face conscious, if they are willing to pay big money, they want the dot com, nothing less. Asians do not like it when they own the dot net and someone else is having the dot com. They will rather go for a crappy dot com, even a typo dot com is better than a prime dot net. Because even for a crappy dot com, you're still the master or king for the dot com and not a secondary.

Last edited by touchring; 5th April 2008 at 06:55 AM..
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Old 5th April 2008, 07:16 AM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Great Post.

Been a lot of work the last year.....

I agree that with .coms are a much better investment in asia. I do pick up some .nets (see my appraisal post) but many of these have good serps or advertiser support. I probably won't sell the .nets that I keep, just stash them for future development. Some of the .coms have been regged for quite a while.

As far as the herd mentality, I think we all feel it here, and are not sure how it will affect things. I have regged my share of bad names, and I think there will be a lot of that with the new IDNers during the next year. It takes time, and some of the same rules that may have applied to ascii don't work with IDN's. The rush is on, and with Rick L mentioning he will start selling IDN's there are quite a few IDN newbies who are jumping in.

I wonder if some of the longtimers here have seen this before, or if this is something completely new.
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Old 5th April 2008, 07:39 AM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Thanks, my bit on .net is with respect to end user sale. There's still a bit of reseller market and play on ppc or development. There's also the speculation on idn.idn.


Quote:
Originally Posted by phio
Great Post.

Been a lot of work the last year.....

I agree that with .coms are a much better investment in asia. I do pick up some .nets (see my appraisal post) but many of these have good serps or advertiser support. I probably won't sell the .nets that I keep, just stash them for future development. Some of the .coms have been regged for quite a while.
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Old 5th April 2008, 08:18 AM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Theres even a herd mentality with the so-called old-timers buying and overvaluing terms in e.g. arabic or Japanese, terms which would only be popular in USA or possibly central Europe. On the other hand, when they are presented with terms which are super-prime in e.g. Arabic, they don't understand the value at all and simply ignore or scoff at them.

I personally believe the best strategy is to ignore all advice from the "wannabe millionaires" and simply let Darwinism run it's course. If you're smart and work hard, you'll probably do well. If you're stupid, then no amount of money in the world will help you.

.
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Old 5th April 2008, 08:50 AM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ross
Theres even a herd mentality with the so-called old-timers buying and overvaluing terms in e.g. arabic or Japanese, terms which would only be popular in USA or possibly central Europe. On the other hand, when they are presented with terms which are super-prime in e.g. Arabic, they don't understand the value at all and simply ignore or scoff at them.

I personally believe the best strategy is to ignore all advice from the "wannabe millionaires" and simply let Darwinism run it's course. If you're smart and work hard, you'll probably do well. If you're stupid, then no amount of money in the world will help you.

.

I think Asian names were undervalued, at least it was 2 years ago. The situation might have changed now of course.

I paid about $2k to RD for a chinese name in Jan 2006 - an insane amount in those days, especially when we thought that idn.com risked blocking by chinese firewalls.

As for latins, if you are interested.

défiscalisation.com xn--dfiscalisation-bkb tax reduction dictionary french 27-09-2005 $17,669 sedo 01-02-2006
câble.com xn--cble-boa cable dictionary french 02-02-2007 $3,070 snapnames 07-02-2007
agences-immobilières.net xn--agences-immobilires-5yb (real) estate agents genre specific french 06-03-2008 $766 sedo 08-03-2008
annoncesimmobilières.net xn--annoncesimmobilires-5yb real estate ads genre specific french 10-03-2008 $1,090 sedo 15-03-2008
städtereisen.de xn--stdtereisen-m8a city travel genre specific german 04-10-2007 $104,325 sedo 04-10-2007
ärzte.de xn--rzte-koa doctors generic german 17-09-2007 $77,000 sedo 20-09-2007
reisebüro.de/reise-büro.de xn--reisebro-c6a travel agency genre specific german 17-09-2007 $71,400 sedo 20-09-2007
städtereisen.de xn--stdtereisen-m8a city travel genre specific german 29-03-2006 $60,168 sedo 29-03-2006
blockhäuser.biz xn--blockhuser-v5a log cabin dictionary german 05-02-2006 $2,406 sedo 08-02-2006

Source: http://idntools.net/


As you can see, these are near ASCII prices, and many are compound words.



.

Last edited by touchring; 5th April 2008 at 08:58 AM..
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Old 5th April 2008, 09:10 AM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
ärzte.de xn--rzte-koa doctors generic german 17-09-2007 $77,000 sedo 20-09-2007
blockhäuser.biz xn--blockhuser-v5a log cabin dictionary german 05-02-2006 $2,406 sedo 08-02-2006
.

Thanks. As I mentioned before, the only reason ärzte.de sold for this amount is because it's the name of a hugely popular German band.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_%C3%84rzte



The blockhäuser.biz sale, I hadn't heard about, and that one is really surprising to me as it's a dot biz!

.
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Old 5th April 2008, 09:23 AM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ross
The blockhäuser.biz sale, I hadn't heard about, and that one is really surprising to me as it's a dot biz!

.

It is an end user sale - the site is developed.



btw, what does .biz mean in german?
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Old 5th April 2008, 09:31 AM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
This proves that the german want the dot dot.
Of course they want the umlaut. Finns, Swedes, etc want the umlauts, too. Why wouldn't they rather type one key than two?

Too bad end user sales will never happen in Finland, because I have some really good Finnish domains. The ones that don't get type-in will need to be developed.

.
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Old 5th April 2008, 10:11 AM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ross
Of course they want the umlaut. Finns, Swedes, etc want the umlauts, too. Why wouldn't they rather type one key than two?

Too bad end user sales will never happen in Finland, because I have some really good Finnish domains. The ones that don't get type-in will need to be developed.

.

I'm actually quite amazed by the amount of traffic nordic names get in relations to their smallish population. Even the largest nordic country has the population of only a medium sized chinese city. The bigger chinese city like Shanghai has triple the population of Sweden, Beijing double the population, Shenzhen, almost double.

Gves us a future look at the traffic we can expect from high internet penetration countries like Korea and China (at least the major cities) when idns becomes status quo in the future.
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Old 5th April 2008, 10:14 AM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
I'm actually quite amazed by the amount of traffic nordic names get in relations to their smallish population. Even the largest nordic country has the population of only a medium sized chinese city.

Gves us a future look at the traffic we can expect from high internet penetration countries like Korea and China (at least the major cities) when idns becomes status quo in the future.

High internet penetration does not equal high internet usage.

The nordic countries have some of the highest online hours per person per week in the world, mainly due to the bad weather.

Even if Italy or Spain would get 90% penetration, it still doesn't mean that they'd be online 60 hours a week on average.

.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
It is an end user sale - the site is developed.



btw, what does .biz mean in german?

Doesn't mean anything, just recognized as it would be in English.

.

Last edited by Ross; 5th April 2008 at 02:12 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 5th April 2008, 08:10 PM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Touchring,

thank you for posting this note.


the herd that shows up from now on, needs to understand that the experts
here with great names are not here to sell at medium to low prices, or
to buy from each other at absurd prices.

People here have not bought and held for 4 / 5 years to do business with people who think this forum is designed for bottom fishing.

We have all made some mistakes in buying or in selling.

As sellers continue to come on, with good 2 word name dot com's I will continue to buy.

But I do not ever intend to sell here.

The true sales market for Chinese IDN's is in China itself, and corporate board rooms worldwide.


We are essentially learning to cooperate and compete with each other in a way.

Schilling, Ham and Ye took 3 to 4 years to learn to cooperate, even though they competed to get drops. Schilling linked Ye to the Marchex folks for his buyout.


Each market is going to roll out different.
China, Japan and Korea and Germany are simply in a different league right now.

In my opinion, Spanish and French terms will be very valuable, but young people in Latin America , Spain and France are used to typing and texting without the accents, so I think that has hurt marketability there.

Germans and Northern Europe are very keen on using the correct letters regardless of age.

Newbies or ASCII old timers new to IDN's now know that IDN's are simply dot com's in a different language. Period.

It is proof of' they did not know what they did not know'. Latona proves that too.
Well, now they know and want to buy low. Too bad.

Market forces are different now.

As RD has said many times......
ROI ROI ROI

I am looking to partner with the experts here to build names to sell directly to companies or to those companies advertisers.

Names can become companies easily.
We agree to form an LLC, you put the name in for cash and equity.
We find a CEO together to run the site.
We try to make money from cash flow, appreciation in equity or from an M &A.



The market to sell only to domainers for IDNers for premium names, in my opinion, that time has past.

They are stuck in the PPC multiple way of thinking and value. They are not site developers and they are not company builders.

Yet 'ireport.com' sells for $900,000. Because CNN needed the name, and RS had it by happenstance or by a good guess from reading a press release etc...

I formed an LLC for my names , sold a piece of it to an Angel, and now he and I are going to form businesses with those names.

I welcome that chance to see if this model will work for experts, old timers, and newbies alike.

yes, the model of waiting for the big company to find you will work.
But I am not waiting. I am pitching the big companies directly, and if they don't get what I am pitching I am moving on to the next company.




thanks.

Steve Epstein
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Old 5th April 2008, 08:23 PM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

I am sure you are right. Perhaps still a little premature, but right nonetheless.

I am now confident if we sit around and pick our butts for a couple of years, we will just end up very rich. That is the strategy I intend to follow until we have a strong cashflow. Once we have money to play with then our ambitions are likely to reignite, until then we are going to sit things out.
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Old 5th April 2008, 08:35 PM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
I am sure you are right. Perhaps still a little premature, but right nonetheless.

I am now confident if we sit around and pick our butts for a couple of years, we will just end up very rich. That is the strategy I intend to follow until we have a strong cashflow. Once we have money to play with then our ambitions are likely to reignite, until then we are going to sit things out.

I am ambitious now - I only need to double my monthly parking revenue 6 more times before I can retire! Then I would probably start partnering with people who want to develop some of those domains.

As it stands now, I think I have a good shot of hitting double last month by the end of this month.

.
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Old 5th April 2008, 08:59 PM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

You may have the jump on us all at the moment, but those with Non-Latin portfolios will have the last laugh.
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Old 5th April 2008, 09:15 PM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ross
I am ambitious now - I only need to double my monthly parking revenue 6 more times before I can retire! Then I would probably start partnering with people who want to develop some of those domains.

As it stands now, I think I have a good shot of hitting double last month by the end of this month.

.

I agree on the PPC part, but we should be realistic that 80% of the PPC from latin will come from names with similar ASCIIs - what i call typo traffic.

But there's a certain multiplier as to how much that PPC will increase over the next 3 years, knowing that most european countries got at least 60% IDN-browser marketshare. Of cos, we also need to consider the increased likelihood of users typing in IDNs when IDNs become commonplace. All in all, there multiplier is still limited. I think not more than 3x for German, and not more for 5x for French and Spanish.
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Old 5th April 2008, 09:16 PM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
You may have the jump on us all at the moment, but those with Non-Latin portfolios will have the last laugh.

Well, I have 60 nice arabics which are picking up speed :-) I'm just praying for aliasing, for nothing more than these 60 domains...

Besides, doubling my performance 6 more times will be damned difficult. Once or twice more, maybe not so difficult.

.
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Old 6th April 2008, 01:35 PM
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Red face Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ross
Well, I have 60 nice arabics which are picking up speed :-) I'm just praying for aliasing, for nothing more than these 60 domains...

Besides, doubling my performance 6 more times will be damned difficult. Once or twice more, maybe not so difficult.

.

PPC will have its ups and downs, SE traffic cannot be taken from granted. Ultimately, if you want to make it big, it is still location location location.

The Pizza.com seller didn't buy the domain because of PPC. I'm sure he paid $70 a year out of the pocket - with no way of covering registration fees for at least 5 years. In the mid-90s, what PPC can pizza.com earn?

Quote:
He said he now regretted not buying more domain names in the 1990s.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7331042.stm
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Old 6th April 2008, 01:47 PM
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Re: Herd instinct issue for newbie IDNers.

When we started out, we had nothing more than blind faith to go on.

I have no patience at all with those sitting on the fence twittering about traffic now that is pretty much a proven phenomenon.

Some here are hope for huge returns for bugger all risk. I don't think that has ever happened in human history, let alone domaining!
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Last edited by Rubber Duck; 6th April 2008 at 01:53 PM..
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