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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 26th October 2008, 04:02 PM
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Talking Re: Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)

I was running web seminars in the mid-90s. And suddenly IT managers started begging me to do a shtick or two at their offices.
The charts we see in this thread don't tell the whole story. There was a qualitative jump in the folks perception. Domain prices didn't rise slowly. They jumped!
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 26th October 2008, 04:47 PM
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Re: Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck View Post
Yeah, Thailand might be a neater solution.

Actually, my idea is to Spring and Autumn in Czech Republic, go back to my native Dorset in summer and winter in the Canaries.
Nice option as well - agree... - cheers, Asiaplay
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 26th October 2008, 07:01 PM
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Re: Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)

ok.......I had my 2 cups of coffee....
ready for my Sunday am rant.....
*******

Market perceptions can change quickly in each nation ....
8% down then 10% up.....then 5% down......
the last 3 weeks have been horrific for lots of friends of mine...
they never listened to my advice to diversify beyond their house and US stocks...
***r



Although China and Japan have very high savings rates...

Each nation has a different perspective of their nation's currency.
The yen is 94 to the dollar...and is traded freely.

the yuan is tightly controlled by the govt.

ascii dot cn's at 14 cents were pounded by spammers, typosquatters, and cybersquatters....
IDN's were often ridiculed by extremely well -off, and highly educated Chinese businessmen to me...'The Net was build by the Americans, they will never let us or the Russians, or the French have a say in running it or have our language really work ..."

No faith to learn or to realize that a 5000 year old language would find a way to be used properly....

I heard this from Oxford trained Indian businessmen as well....
"The net in India will always be English...period..."
Huh ?
99% of Hindi speakers SMS in Hindi in India...
that would include the 25% or higher fluent in English...

SMS in China,Japan, and Korea is 100% native language...

IM'ing and Chatting via mobile phones on TCP/IP via 3G or wifi is native language.....

so a DNS record can't be triangulated (hidden via a brower location bar ?)

I have been speaking with some of my classmates who are still in NY...
(still employed in finance for the moment ..grin)


Several are German....
they are saying that the German IDN market is bifurcated ....

great names are steady or rising in value as before.....

poor or mediocre names have plummetted since their PPC with Sedo has dried up , no one wants to buy them for that reason..nor do they want to buy a name that is poor for development....

And so this will be true for all of us as well in my opinion....


Transparency is now happening for all of the script and Asian character oriented IDN's....

Is a certain name 5000 or 50,000 ...of course it depends on a number of factors...

so have $50,000 values fallen to $5000 or have some decided to sell really great names for $5000 because they need cash for something or more capital for more names.......

who knows....


what I see happening is more selling and more buying.....and that is a good thing......

for the 14 cent dot CN owners.......I am not sad one tear....

for the ASCII dot com owners of garbage ......not one tear.....

The US is about to endure the difficulty that the UK went through as its colonial economic model collapsed and unwound.

China with $2 trillion in reserves wants to sit at the table of NY and London now....

The unipolar financial world ended in the last 45 days...
Some type of multipolar world of China - US......then EU/ Japan/ Brazil/India/ is going to emerge as a new financial order...

I think that Renault-Nissan buying GM or Chrysler or both , may be the first deal of this magnitude...
The Chinese are still angry at the bullshit / fake outrage that killed the Unocal deal a few years ago......
They will not tolerate that bullshit a second time, now that AIG etc....have vanished....

*******
I think Chinese finance types are going to get pitched to buy everything...
US stuff and Chinese stuff....

It should be interesting to see what they want to buy a little more risky than US treasuries ?????






end of rant.....

(grin)

Steve
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 26th October 2008, 08:07 PM
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Talking Re: Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)

Rant from this side of the lake

You folks from the Continent always underestimated the Yankees.
When you started those two ugly wars we had to come & save your arses. We financed your recovery. We opened our markets to your useless products. Unlike your EU we can print money. Tons of it. We'll print $10 Trillion and we'll shtup it up your & Arab & Russian & Japanese & Chinese throats.

Play ball!
Fasten your seatbelts...
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 26th October 2008, 08:09 PM
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Re: Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)

Well history will tell us that was no rant. That was highly objective analysis, even if it did err a little on the cautious side.
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 26th October 2008, 08:12 PM
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Re: Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miguel View Post
Rant from this side of the lake

You folks from the Continent always underestimated the Yankees.
When you started those two ugly wars we had to come & save your arses. We financed your recovery. We opened our markets to your useless products. Unlike your EU we can print money. Tons of it. We'll print $10 Trillion and we'll shtup it up your & Arab & Russian & Japanese & Chinese throats.

Play ball!
Fasten your seatbelts...
The reason the EU are reluctant to print money is because the Germans tried it big time once before.

But you are right. Inflating the debt away is the only solution, but you'll probably end up with an economy about the size of Shandong.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 26th October 2008, 10:21 PM
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Re: Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miguel View Post
Rant from this side of the lake

You folks from the Continent always underestimated the Yankees.
When you started those two ugly wars we had to come & save your arses. We financed your recovery.
errrm actually...

The "Yankees" only waded in after Pearl Harbour was hit
and as for financing it.. LMAO.. we've been paying for it ever since..

article from 2006: The final payment of £45m will be made by the 31 December, meeting a 1945 obligation to repay the debt in full.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4970720.stm
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 26th October 2008, 10:33 PM
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Re: Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)

with regard to the meltdown...

Printing money and selling more 10 year/ 30 Treasuries is not the same.

If prices of Treasuries stay relatively high , and yields very very low...then
this is not inflationary...

Until the Chinese let the yuan float sometime in the next 10 years...the dollar is going to remain the world's reserve currency...
OPEC is not looking happily to switch to the euro or the yen in the last 2 months.....like they used to threaten every so often last summer... huh ??
now that oil has fallen from 140 to below 70...

8000 US banks , 7000 are going to go away....
300,000 more finance sector jobs have to vanish...
only 200,000 have so far this year, generally in NY/NJ/Conn in the US

NYC, London, and other moneycenter cities...will have the same sector issues for a least a year in terms of job loss...

not dissimilar to the S and L / RTC debacle of 20 years ago...

80% of hedge funds world wide...not just US are going to go away.

All banks, all hedge funds , all private equity funds...
any large entity that borrows short and lends long (any debt greater than a year)
.....is going to be regulated by
a merged SEC/ FDIC/Commodities entity....in every developed country..

effectively all banks and hedge funds are going to be treated the same if they are doing the same types of transactions....

the days of 10 agencies eyeing 10 pieces of international finance separately are completely over....

Now that the FED and Treasury own Lehman's positions/ AIG's/ and Bear Stearns....they have front row seats for the daily trading of commodities, swaps, debt, and equities.....
there is not hovering in the background anymore....

So the only unregulated finance market at this point is the VC market and the angel finance market....
I can't see that changing....but I think pension funds are going to stop funding the bottom half of the VC funds....who have never had an amazing IPO in 5 years ???? and have had miserable returns because of M&A 's not IPO's.

Now that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are bank holding companies at 20:1 or lower and not 33:1 or higher......the model of investment banking of the last 30 years has vanished...

M&A with new debt doesn't exist until Jan 09 until the banks kind of know which banks get to stay around with Federal overview for debt and credit swaps...

the new frontier of massive finance is govt project finance.....
more airports in China....more subways...
roads /airports ...India.. ...subways here too......to prevent massively more terrible traffic..


massive infrastructure of Africa ...ignored by the US and EU...but
the Chinese are the new dealmakers of Africa....not the US...
I think the Africans are in for a rough ride with the Chinese too...
The old 'non-aligned' political spin from the Chinese is completely BS, and everyone knows it..


Leveraged buyouts by private equity is the next shoe to drop ...
if banks can't lend to each overnight....
all of the PE deals will not be able to re-financed regardless of the fact that rates may be lower....the debtholders are going to take back the companies and wipe out the high flyer PE shareholders....

deleveraging does have winners....over time and eventually...
it is the shareholders that buy a company's new shares after the bankruptcy is over by degree of a court.......
or smart bondholders that can endure the length of proceedings while lawyers bleed them also...they become new shareholders also...

firing overpaid management that failed....is messy, but it is happening...
board members generally hate being sued over and over...but especially during BK, being sued after poor M& A's is different...almost standard in a way...


Asset price declines are not tied to deleveraging...
asset prices are tied to demand/supply .....

I think we are now going through a phase of IDN asset discovery and IDN price discovery at the same time....

thousands if not millions will be extremely excited to discover IDN's next year after Cairo and the ICANN board final go for fast track...

If you are engaged with a potential buyer that believes in the intangible value or branding value of a name, then you may have to ask a really hard question of yourself...

If you believe a name is worth 100,000 let's say....

you may have to say no to several offers of 10,000....or even 50,000

I am preparing myself to make a lot of mistakes on this score...
because I think my Bell curve of valuations across languages over the next 36 months is going to be very weird....

who knows.....if ecommerce or ad type names or both will be opportunities as IDN's at the same time...across languages and across nations...
who knows...

Korea and German have been stable for 2 to 3 years so far...and no panic selling is evident in those 2 sectors....

I am in the IDN market for the very long haul....10 years plus...
will people always buy and flip.....sure....
that is what makes transparent and fluid markets great....

Will our market here at IDNF change after Cairo ?
It seems so to me...

I just think that the 'smartest guys in the room' screwed up Enron, and the US credit markets....
I think the 'smartest guys' in a dozen languages so to speak...missed the chance to buy really really cheap...or to hand reg.

they can buy from me, when they have a price that I am willing to consider..

but buying great names at x,xxx or xx,xxx is amazingly cheap....for medium to big companies...even ones that are in trouble....

marketing and ad budgets don't disappear......
in most cases today...$ is shifting from TV/ newspaper to online...

knowing that xxx,xxx is the value within their own business networks or for branding that research will indicate for them that they need to buy IDN's for SEO, and abandon poor Anglicized native language URL's...

and so it goes....

(last rant from the states side today...)


Steve






Steve....
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 27th October 2008, 12:42 AM
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Re: Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miguel View Post
Rant from this side of the lake


When you started those two ugly wars we had to come & save your arses.
Just noting that the last 2 wars where you had major commonwealth forces by your side, you won.

What have you been doing since WWII?

And I hope you're not whining about all that gas turbine, rocket, and nuclear tech you got for free either.
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Old 24th November 2008, 07:13 AM
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Re: Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)

Quote:
Originally Posted by phio View Post
I plan to be standing on one of the Mayan temples late December 2012.

By then the type-ins will cover renewals....
http://punditkitchen.com/2008/11/06/...-palin-mayans/
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