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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 24th May 2009, 02:22 PM
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I'd like to put forward the idea that...

the IDN aftermarket will 'take off' massively when (and only when) non idn-enabled browsers' market share is so low that idn accessibility is no longer a consideration for large companies.. maybe as low as 1-3% of the worldwide browser market.

Q1) Will that ever happen?
A) Yes I think it will, but it may well happen over several years.

Q2) How much will it 'take off' when this happens?
A) I believe it could be a 'breathtaking' difference - for some, it may be the difference between having waited for years and having/seeing nothing and then suddenly having everything.

Agree/disagree?
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Old 24th May 2009, 04:06 PM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

I was about to post some crap ... decided not to ... Love that Q and A though!
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Old 24th May 2009, 05:14 PM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by mulligan View Post
I was about to post some crap ... decided not to ... Love that Q and A though!
Oh, go on, Mulligan.. I'd love to hear some crap :-)
Please?
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Old 24th May 2009, 06:45 PM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

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Originally Posted by blackops View Post
Oh, go on, Mulligan.. I'd love to hear some crap :-)
Please?
Nah .. not today
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Old 24th May 2009, 08:03 PM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackops View Post
Agree/disagree?
disagree.

The aftermarket you refer to will initially be born from the old model of selling on multiples of traffic.
You can't sell smoke and dreams, but you can sell based on x of traffic.

So what's missing is Traffic.

It doesn't matter whether browser penetration stays at ~70%, IF that 70% was generating constant quality traffic.
What will bring the traffic? Simple: awareness of IDN.
99.999% of the planet don't know they can exist/don't know you can type them in etc etc..

.. when that changes, the traffic will arrive.

The release of IDN ccTLD's will go along way to achieving this awareness IMO; lets face it, the ccTLD registrars HAVE to ensure they educate the masses, or they will fail miserably.

** there you go Mulligan, I posted crap for you **
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Old 24th May 2009, 08:46 PM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Was just talking to a native about 4 days ago and I asked him how to spell a couple words and he was like what do you mean? Showed him IDNs and he was like "WTF"-- in a bad way. Obviously had no clue they are available and he thought they are pretty pointless.

5 minutes later and it "all made sense"

Time and push is what's needed to bring the pieces all together.
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Old 24th May 2009, 09:02 PM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

.. and of course the aftermarket arrived long ago for the top top domains; like any domain (ascii or IDN), you don't see them in a sales thread on a forum.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fka200 View Post
5 minutes later and it "all made sense"

Time and push is what's needed to bring the pieces all together.
One person can't change the world, but you can change the world for one person. Nice one Sammy!
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Old 24th May 2009, 09:48 PM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Browser penetration is not the only factor in play here.

For instance, how do you educate the Japanese masses that the Yahoo search bar is not their own choice when wanting to navigate to Google dot com.

We're dealing with different cultures here, so different timelines for things to start happening.

So far, we only know a few things that are working right now. As for the rest, we can only guess, dream or hope.
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Old 24th May 2009, 10:15 PM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Agreed, it very hard to sell until that happens.

Having said that when it does, we will not be selling. We won't need to, and the price we would get even then will not reflect the inherent value, so why bother?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alphamale View Post
disagree.

The aftermarket you refer to will initially be born from the old model of selling on multiples of traffic.
You can't sell smoke and dreams, but you can sell based on x of traffic.

So what's missing is Traffic.

It doesn't matter whether browser penetration stays at ~70%, IF that 70% was generating constant quality traffic.
What will bring the traffic? Simple: awareness of IDN.
99.999% of the planet don't know they can exist/don't know you can type them in etc etc..

.. when that changes, the traffic will arrive.

The release of IDN ccTLD's will go along way to achieving this awareness IMO; lets face it, the ccTLD registrars HAVE to ensure they educate the masses, or they will fail miserably.

** there you go Mulligan, I posted crap for you **
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Old 25th May 2009, 02:56 AM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

disagree with the disagreement

Even the ASCII "traffic multiple" (i.e. PPC) market has reduced massively in the last few years. When you factor in all the unknowns / differences / complications of IDN traffic, my guess is most IDN domains won't ever be sold because of traffic. They will sold because of branding / SEO. That's why end users buy names.

If you want to sell a domain to an end user, don't try and explain "traffic multiples" because (a) they won't understand it and (b) they won't be interested even if they did.

You can only release the full potential of *any* domain through development. That's why end users always pay more than PPC traffic buyers, because they are interested in developing real sites / doing proper SEO, retaining the users that visit etc.

We don't ever expect to sell any of our best domains because of type-in traffic. May happen for a few markets, such as Russia, but not Asian markets.

How's that for some crap!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alphamale View Post
disagree.

The aftermarket you refer to will initially be born from the old model of selling on multiples of traffic.
You can't sell smoke and dreams, but you can sell based on x of traffic.

So what's missing is Traffic.

It doesn't matter whether browser penetration stays at ~70%, IF that 70% was generating constant quality traffic.
What will bring the traffic? Simple: awareness of IDN.
99.999% of the planet don't know they can exist/don't know you can type them in etc etc..

.. when that changes, the traffic will arrive.

The release of IDN ccTLD's will go along way to achieving this awareness IMO; lets face it, the ccTLD registrars HAVE to ensure they educate the masses, or they will fail miserably.

** there you go Mulligan, I posted crap for you **
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 25th May 2009, 05:18 AM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Either way, those that are hoping to jump in as speculators but want to see the traffic to be sure of where this is going are probably going to lose out big time.
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Old 25th May 2009, 10:01 AM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by domainguru View Post
disagree with the disagreement

Even the ASCII "traffic multiple" (i.e. PPC) market has reduced massively in the last few years. When you factor in all the unknowns / differences / complications of IDN traffic, my guess is most IDN domains won't ever be sold because of traffic. They will sold because of branding / SEO. That's why end users buy names.

If you want to sell a domain to an end user, don't try and explain "traffic multiples" because (a) they won't understand it and (b) they won't be interested even if they did.
I would have to disagree with your disagreeing on my disagreement.

notice I said
Quote:
Originally Posted by me View Post
The aftermarket you refer to will initially be born from the old model of selling on multiples of traffic.
the question was, what will jump start the aftermarket? I still think the first evolution of this will be domainer <-> domainer sales based on something tangible aka traffic.

but we can agree that end-user sales will not be based on traffic multiples
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Old 25th May 2009, 10:49 AM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alphamale View Post
what will jump start the aftermarket? I still think the first evolution of this will be domainer <-> domainer sales based on something tangible aka traffic.
I think there will be many ways for people to profit from idn, and your point about end-user sales is entirely valid. Traffic can be, of course, a major component of a domains' value but my point is.. "what will be the catalyst, that will propel idn awareness... massively... throughout the world?".

We can talk about natural type-in, but this is really just a by-product of an already developed, or developing, internet market.. the 'poster child' of which is ".com".

Nothing happens in a vacuum and I believe it will be big company marketing, on idn, that will really help to push idn values forward across the board. When big co's suddenly decide the %'s are right re: idn-enabled browsers, they will suddenly 'flick the switch' and start developing, and idn will become as credible as ascii.com is perceived to be today.

..and it will be like a domino-effect.

Those of you who are currently getting considerable natural 'type in' to your idn's, with no promotion, then i'd say you are in a fairly unusual (yet highly desirable) position because I would say that for most idn owners 'type in' isn't much of a value right now.

..and in the absence of that value, we need to look at developing idn's which, at present, isn't really practical at a high or credible level.

Folks like DG, however, who are busy attracting value to their idn's now, in many different ways, will benefit the most but my question was really about those who are doing nothing and are simply waiting for the rewards to come to them.

For those people, you may be waiting a while for the 'BIG BANG'...
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Old 25th May 2009, 11:14 AM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackops View Post
...we need to look at developing idn's which, at present, isn't really practical at a high or credible level...

..For those people, you may be waiting a while for the 'BIG BANG'...
Sure, you can wait for the 'Big Bang', or you can just light the fuse yourself.

Keep an eye on my blog over the next few days
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Old 25th May 2009, 11:17 AM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alphamale View Post
Sure, you can wait for the 'Big Bang', or you can just light the fuse yourself.

Keep an eye on my blog over the next few days
I'm not sure its even possible under the laws of the universe to be "waiting for the Big Bang". Think about it .....
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Old 25th May 2009, 12:20 PM
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Re: I'd like to put forward the idea that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alphamale View Post
Keep an eye on my blog over the next few days
Yes I will, in fact i've had a look at it now - looks good :-)
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