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Old 24th April 2006, 09:14 PM
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What's with the massive price inflation?

Hey, I'm very positive about the medium-to-long term market for IDN - after all, I'm in to the tune of over 2,000 names...

But taking a step back, there is relatively little RECENT news that would justify the incredibly rapid price appreciation I'm seeing in here and on DNF for a lot of sales threads. Used to be that $xx,xxx threads were a pipedream, now they seem to be cropping up regularly and $xxx,xxx is starting to show up. Of course, that doesn't mean the domains are actually selling at those price levels!!

Sellers have the right to ask whatever price they like, always have, always will. I respect that.

My post is more about the "background" side of things i.e. what is it others are seeing that I am not.

The only "market-boosting news" I've seen recently is the sale of a few superb Arabic and other names for modest $x,xxx figures. But IE7 has been delayed again, Firefox's most recent patch has the side effect of disabling IDN, DNAME is still very much up in the air, and overall I don't see what's driving the market higher as quickly as it is going.
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Old 24th April 2006, 09:31 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin
Hey, I'm very positive about the medium-to-long term market for IDN - after all, I'm in to the tune of over 2,000 names...

But taking a step back, there is relatively little RECENT news that would justify the incredibly rapid price appreciation I'm seeing in here and on DNF for a lot of sales threads. Used to be that $xx,xxx threads were a pipedream, now they seem to be cropping up regularly and $xxx,xxx is starting to show up. Of course, that doesn't mean the domains are actually selling at those price levels!!

Sellers have the right to ask whatever price they like, always have, always will. I respect that.

My post is more about the "background" side of things i.e. what is it others are seeing that I am not.

The only "market-boosting news" I've seen recently is the sale of a few superb Arabic and other names for modest $x,xxx figures. But IE7 has been delayed again, Firefox's most recent patch has the side effect of disabling IDN, DNAME is still very much up in the air, and overall I don't see what's driving the market higher as quickly as it is going.
Well, it would seem that there is a bit of a stand-off between buyers and sellers. One wants tomorrows prices, whilst the other wants yesterdays.

There is uncertainty in the market with a few weaker players panicking and selling out at crazy prices. Then there is your portfolio overhanging the market. That in itself has created a destabilising effect.

I have posted a domain at six-figures. Frankly I don't expect to sell it anytime soon, but it is clear signal to the market, that if they want that kind of quality they are going to have to pay for it. It may not fetch $100K, and it won't in six months time either, because the price will have gone up again.

Yes, to some extent it is shadow boxing, but that is the name of the game.
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Old 24th April 2006, 09:32 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

It depends on the name....

For example, $10,000 for tokyo.net is a bargain. Major names of places, Japanese or Chinese are also long term collectables - these can be considered as blue chip investment that will retain value for the next 5 years and put in the "pocket" since renewal fees are only $7 a year.

Put simply, there is a million permutation for compound words in Chinese and Japanese, but major names of places, there are only a handful. Two or three thousand names at $8 might not seem a lot, but 3 year's of renewal fees, it adds up to 50K to 70K. And with the delay in browser support, and what Firefox has experience so far, no one can say for certain how much we must wait until IDN support becomes a permanent feature. Then there's the dingbat issue and 'paypal.com' domains - these will definitely pop up some time along the road and cause further delay.
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Old 24th April 2006, 09:34 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
It depends on the name....

For example, $10,000 for tokyo.net is a bargain. Major names of places, Japanese or Chinese are also long term collectables - these can be considered as blue chip investment that will retain value for the next 5 years and put in the "pocket" since renewal fees are only $7 a year.

Put simply, there is a million permutation for compound words in Chinese and Japanese, but major names of places, there are only a handful. Two or three thousand names at $8 might not seem a lot, but 3 year's of renewal fees, it adds up to 50K to 70K. And with the delay in browser support, and what Firefox has experience so far, no one can say for certain how much we must wait until IDN support becomes a permanent feature.
Well if it takes Bill three years to get out IE 7.0, I'll put a bullet through his brain myself!
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Old 24th April 2006, 09:38 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

The only .net I could see going for 5 figures was 東京.net.

2nd best domain in .net in the 2nd largest economy in the world. 'Nuf said.

I think there's a secondary market supply issue developing with single term generic Japanese IDN with high overture. The holders of these in many cases have sat on them for 5-6 years, and can afford to sit on them for another 20 -- make that a lifetime. If you want one, in most cases, you have to open your wallet or get very very lucky registering them. <-- this part is OVER!

Top 25 or 50 cities and countries in their native languages should command prices in the 5 figures. Where? I don't know, but I'm not willing to part with mine for less and I will have them registered for the maximum term at $8 per year.
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Old 24th April 2006, 09:38 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Well if it takes Bill three years to get out IE 7.0, I'll put a bullet through his brain myself!

It wouldn't take him 3 years, but i can forsee that after a few months, phishers will get into action, and they will be forced to issue a "security patch" like what Firefox has done.

That's why i rather they spend more time addressing security and do it right at least the first time, or at least get it right with 2 tries at most. Remember the case of WAP versus i-mode. WAP failed while i-mode prospered.

Anyway, if you got a few blue chips on hand, you have little to worry - as you can hold these for long term. If you have hundreds or thousands of only mixed terms, you have to seriously consider quickly offload some of them and acquire some bluechips that cost less to maintain while it is still possible.

Everything is rosy now, but anything can happen (chances are rather low though) to delay matters, e.g. birdflu, Iran War, etc.

Last edited by touchring; 24th April 2006 at 09:52 PM..
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Old 24th April 2006, 09:50 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
It wouldn't take him 3 years, but i can forsee that after a few months, phishers will get into action, and they will be forced to issue a "security patch" like what Firefox has done.

That's why i rather they spend more time addressing security and do it right at least the first time, or at least get it right with 2 tries at most.

Anyway, if got a few blue chips on hand, you have little to worry - as you can hold these for long term.
Well, the phishing issue is horse-shit! Blocking IDN has made very little difference as the vast majority of phishing attacks never used IDN. It is largely scaremongering by a vocal ASCII community. Far from putting most of the World at risk it will actually do a lot to reduce phishing in the non-English speaking community. The problem is that English speaking community have made it very clear that they think they own the Internet, which is also a ludicrous assumption. They may very well have control at the moment, but the US is ultimately unable to dictate outside its own borders. If it pushes the issue then, then the Root will be split, but it won't be China that is left out in the cold.

The Firefox decision was a gross over-reaction due to a total loss of bottle. They, however, had the excuse they were unprepared. After the ludicrous amount of time that Microsoft has wasted already, such response would not be tolerated. Hu would just send Bill a brief email:

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Old 24th April 2006, 09:51 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Take a look at http://auction.nic.ru/

Absolutely crap names .ru are selling - not just offered - for $XX,XXX.


Last edited by blastfromthepast; 24th April 2006 at 09:59 PM..
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Old 24th April 2006, 09:54 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

The bottom line is nothing is marked-to-market until it trades. And preferably some comparables trade around the same area to reinforce value.

I could offer some crap name at a million dollars and it wouldn't mean diddley. All that would do is affect my reputation.
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Old 24th April 2006, 09:59 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Yes, i know what you are talking about, there are a lot of camera.com aspirants floating around right now. btw, the rumour.com you got is a cool one. I would have considered that name as well.

Last edited by touchring; 24th April 2006 at 10:01 PM..
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Old 24th April 2006, 10:03 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by blastfromthepast
Take a look at http://auction.nic.ru/

Absolutely crap names .ru are selling - not just offered - for $XX,XXX.

Are you sure that the are US$ and the domains are actually being sold.

If that is true then people are buying name that won't be worth J*ck Sh*t in two years time.

Do they accept foriegn registrants and IDN dot coms? We call all do with a bit of this action. My stir a few people up even if we could just get a few name listed!
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Old 24th April 2006, 10:04 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Yes, i know what you are talking about, there are a lot of camera.com aspirants floating around right now.
That's the truth. Drewbert and Giant are responsible for about 30 new members.
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Old 24th April 2006, 10:19 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gammascalper
That's the truth. Drewbert and Giant are responsible for about 30 new members.
Actually, I think that the new members are mainly due to this weeks plug at IDNFs. Hopefully, we will get another plug next week, as Olney had bigger sale than Giant, although, exact details are not public.

It would seem that there has also been a substantial dot tv sale at IDNPros!

Getting back to the pricing issue. If you are absolutely sure that a domain is going to be worth £1Million dollars in 2 years time on the basis of 5-10 times annual earnings. Then working it back it has to be worth between $500K and $700K today, which is why those that believe in their investments won't sell for $5K even if there is no traffic revenue in the interim!
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Old 24th April 2006, 10:21 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Do they accept foriegn registrants and IDN dot coms? We call all do with a bit of this action. My stir a few people up even if we could just get a few name listed!
They accept Russian residents only, who have a signed confirmed contract with NIC.ru. I've inquired.

I'll look into it further if they accept IDNs.
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Old 24th April 2006, 10:26 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin
I'm seeing in here and on DNF for a lot of sales threads. Used to be that $xx,xxx threads were a pipedream, now they seem to be cropping up regularly and $xxx,xxx is starting to show up. Of course, that doesn't mean the domains are actually selling at those price levels!!
I think they are just showing off their idns, and stirring conversation and discussion of possible value. I don't think the market is ready to go to this level at this point, and certainly there is no precedent for any to be at xxx,xxx prices. If they are serious about selling, then put a reasonable reserve on (like Rubber Duck did with moscow.net) and put them up on auction and let the market decide worth.
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Old 24th April 2006, 10:31 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Getting back to the pricing issue. If you are absolutely sure that a domain is going to be worth £1Million dollars in 2 years time on the basis of 5-10 times annual earnings. Then working it back it has to be worth between $500K and $700K today, which is why those that believe in their investments won't sell for $5K even if there is no traffic revenue in the interim!
Not really the case if the revenue and traffic multiplier in the 2-year period in question is expected to be say 100x.

That's like saying that pre-IPO stock should sell at near-IPO prices because "it will be worth X at IPO". The real world doesn't work like that. Relatively little credit is given for "might be, could be, should be..." even if grounded in relatively solid facts, and a huge amount of credit is given for "is".

The thing is, it probably hurts the market TODAY more than it helps it to have very high-$ expected sales prices, since they can't be supported by TODAY's facts.

I'm not saying "sell cheaper" I'm saying "if the only price you'd be willing to sell at is one that the market CLEARLY won't support today, why not consider holding off posting the sale at all until market conditions are closer to potentially supporting your asking price?"

Again, not trying to dictate codes of behaviour, I'm just curious to see what others think. Judging from the deluge of responses so far, this is a key topic!
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Old 24th April 2006, 10:48 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

[QUOTE=Edwin]I'm not saying "sell cheaper" I'm saying "if the only price you'd be willing to sell at is one that the market CLEARLY won't support today, why not consider holding off posting the sale at all until market conditions are closer to potentially supporting your asking price?"

Maybe just an irresistable urge to show off their top idns. I don't think it helps the market to do this.
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Old 24th April 2006, 10:49 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin
Not really the case if the revenue and traffic multiplier in the 2-year period in question is expected to be say 100x.

That's like saying that pre-IPO stock should sell at near-IPO prices because "it will be worth X at IPO". The real world doesn't work like that. Relatively little credit is given for "might be, could be, should be..." even if grounded in relatively solid facts, and a huge amount of credit is given for "is".

The thing is, it probably hurts the market TODAY more than it helps it to have very high-$ expected sales prices, since they can't be supported by TODAY's facts.

I'm not saying "sell cheaper" I'm saying "if the only price you'd be willing to sell at is one that the market CLEARLY won't support today, why not consider holding off posting the sale at all until market conditions are closer to potentially supporting your asking price?"

Again, not trying to dictate codes of behaviour, I'm just curious to see what others think. Judging from the deluge of responses so far, this is a key topic!
Well at the moment most of the action is undoubtedly in the mediocre dot nets. Perhaps that reflects the level of liquidity in the market at the moment.

Nevertheless, the issue of what people think a domain is worth clearly has to be addressed. Somebody at some stage has to put a marker in the sand, otherwise selling top ranking names just becomes a Taboo subject. We could all be accused of manipulating the markets and indeed we may all be guilty. Some have an interest in prices moving forward, others would prefer them to remain a more modest levels of the time being.

Yes, saying a domain is worth a certain amount of money won't necessarily get you the cash, just as saying it isn't won't necessarily get you the domain for less.
I have to say that I am confortable with my domain valuations to date on the whole, although I have inadvertantly given a few away for peanuts. I am certainly not going to withdraw any of my offerings simply because they are considered overpriced by some potentially interested parties.

One thing is clear, and that is both buyers and sellers will continue to experiment with strategies.
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Old 24th April 2006, 10:59 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

This will be a great topic to revisit a month or two after IE7's debut.
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Old 24th April 2006, 11:01 PM
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Re: What's with the massive price inflation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gammascalper
This will be a great topic to revisit a month or two after IE7's debut.
No, we will all be too senile to hold a coherent debate by then!
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