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Old 25th December 2009, 05:18 PM
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China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

If you believe in the figures, China will replace Japan as 2nd position by the end of 2010 or 2011 the latest. By now it would be apparent that an economy less dependent on credit would recover faster in a financial crisis.

The real estate bubble looks invincible, but nevertheless the conditions are there for real economic growth - the most developed internet market after the US, the most number of internet and cellphone users, china already makes everything or copied whatever that needs to be copied, now left the branding and qc which it has to buy since that can't be copied quickly - http://www.freep.com/article/2009122...ing-list-Volvo. Once they have branding and qc, they can charge more, and wages will rise.

And if you believe that the dollar is a ponzi, there will be very significant changes over the next 5 years.


Quote:
Dec. 25 (Bloomberg) -- China raised its 2008 growth estimate to 9.6 percent from 9 percent and said this year’s quarterly figures will increase, narrowing the gap with Japan, the world’s second-biggest economy.

Gross domestic product was 31.405 trillion yuan ($4.6 trillion) last year, the statistics bureau said at a briefing in Beijing today. That compares with a previous 30.067 trillion yuan and the World Bank’s estimate of $4.9 trillion for Japan.

China’s expansion will be more than 8 percent in 2009, according to government officials, and the nation is poised to overtake Japan next year, International Monetary Fund projections show. Today’s figures result from an economic census which showed a bigger contribution from services and continue a pattern of China revising up preliminary growth estimates.

“The big underlying factor propelling China’s growth is the continued migration of people from the agricultural sector to the more modern economy -- industry and services,” said David Cohen, an economist at Action Economic in Singapore. “There’s no stopping China.”

Last edited by touchring; 25th December 2009 at 05:26 PM..
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Old 26th December 2009, 09:51 AM
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Re: China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

That's great news. China's economy is going from strength to strength. Waiting for ecommerce and affiliate marketing to kick off. Gonna grab myself a piece of that pie.
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Old 27th December 2009, 05:24 AM
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Re: China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

Read the article "The Geopolitics of China: A Great Power Enclosed". It gives some insight into China. I think it is interesting.
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Old 27th December 2009, 05:46 AM
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Re: China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

Quote:
Originally Posted by BandAid View Post
Read the article "The Geopolitics of China: A Great Power Enclosed". It gives some insight into China. I think it is interesting.

That being said, unity and continuity of the "han land" is the top goal of the communist party, and not economic growth. The ccp will be more than willing to squash dissent at the expense of the economy. The ideal of preserving the 4000 year old central kingdom is not just above individual rights, but also money, religion, people (lives), and even the government itself. When unity is at threat, everything can be sacrificed.

Last edited by touchring; 27th December 2009 at 06:02 AM..
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Old 27th December 2009, 09:56 AM
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Re: China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

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Originally Posted by touchring View Post
That being said, unity and continuity of the "han land" is the top goal of the communist party, and not economic growth. The ccp will be more than willing to squash dissent at the expense of the economy. The ideal of preserving the 4000 year old central kingdom is not just above individual rights, but also money, religion, people (lives), and even the government itself. When unity is at threat, everything can be sacrificed.
Yes, whilst most Americans would love to see China broke up in the name of Freedom and Democracy, the likely outcome would be Civil War that would make the US Civil War look like a Sunday School outing. Having said that I am sure there are plenty in Washington who would be more than pleased with such an outcome. Whilst a loser more Federal and Democratic structure might be desirable, stability must be paramount.
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Old 27th December 2009, 03:06 PM
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Re: China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

For an alternative view, see China Faces Crash Scenario:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-scenario.html

Quote:
China is in a Scylla or Charybdis scenario. If China continues to inflate it will overheat. If it doesn't, unemployment and unrest will soar, and the economy will implode. Either way, there is no winning solution.

Peak oil and environmental pollution compound China's problem immensely. China is simply on an unsustainable path for many reasons.

Various Chinese asset bubbles are guaranteed to pop, but as I have said many times, the timing of such events is unknown. In this case however, I am more apt to believe sooner, rather than later.
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Old 27th December 2009, 05:00 PM
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Re: China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

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Originally Posted by xndashdash View Post
For an alternative view, see China Faces Crash Scenario:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-scenario.html


The crash may come first half of next year. The ccp is making use of the people to exchange dollars for commodities. It might make sense since eventually, even overpriced commodities is worth more than treasury. Before that happens, you will want to get hold of as much metals as possible.
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Old 27th December 2009, 05:13 PM
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Re: China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

China has loosened the money supply to counteract the depression being exported from America. Of course the US and Japan are doing much the same, the only difference being that China can actually afford it. When you talk about Real Estate, the entire Real Estate Market in the US is a Government sponsored Ponzi Scheme. Two bankrupt but tax supported bureaucracies are spawning debt to bad risk lenders like money was going out of fashion. The US Real Estate Market maybe much lower than before but it is still on the brink of cratering. The Japanese on the other hand are now committed to spending more borrowed money than they can raise in taxes. Both of these economies are totally f*cked, but they console themselves by convincing them that the ascendant China is in a mess. However, the problem arises primarily because democratic government have pandered to uneducated voters. China does not have these problems.
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Old 27th December 2009, 05:33 PM
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Re: China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

another crazy project just completed. 664 miles at 225 mph from Guangzhou to Wuhan. the entire rail line is elevated.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Hnne7brqHo

to see how crazy this project is, the entire high speed rail network in germany is about 800 miles and 1000 miles for france.

Last edited by touchring; 27th December 2009 at 06:04 PM..
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Old 27th December 2009, 05:57 PM
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Re: China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

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Originally Posted by touchring View Post
another crazy project just completed. 664 miles at 225 mph from Guangzhou to Wuhan. the entire rail line is elevated.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Hnne7brqHo
Yes, having a ground based mass transport system does seem a little crazy when America has ignored that possibility and just flies people every where instead. Of course I can understand why somebody living in Singapore might have trouble grasping such issues.
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Old 28th December 2009, 02:23 AM
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Re: China Raises GDP Growth Estimates, Narrowing Gap With Japan

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck View Post
Yes, having a ground based mass transport system does seem a little crazy when America has ignored that possibility and just flies people every where instead. Of course I can understand why somebody living in Singapore might have trouble grasping such issues.

As matter of fact, I understand the economics behind railway construction, the biggest cost is land cost, and not the railway lines. High speed rail runs on land and not below land - the land must be acquired (forcibly by legislation if necessary), and the cost of doing that at market value is prohibitive, not to mention if land owners decide to squat , the legal process itself can drag for decades. I believe that this is one of the reason why India is decades behind China in rail transport.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchin...nt_9235505.htm
Quote:
The Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway, with trains running at a world-record 350 km per hour, started operation on Saturday. [China Daily]

The Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway, arguably the world's fastest train journey at a speed of 350 km/h, started operation on Saturday.

Two passenger trains rolled out of Wuhan Railway Station and Guangzhou North Railway Station at about 9 am and reached their respective terminals within three hours, compared with the previous 10-hour journey.

The service between Wuhan, capital of central Hubei province, and Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province and a business hub in the southern region, started a trial run on Dec 9 and hit a top speed of 394.2 km/h.

A 600-member delegation from Xianning city boarded the train at 10 am from Xianning North Station to promote tourism and attract investment in Guangzhou. Nearly two hours later, they had to take off winter coats in Guangzhou where the temperature was about 20 C at noon.

"We have long been waiting for the service to start," said Zheng Zengjin, manager of Yaochi Hotel in Xianning and a delegation member.

In China, traveling by train usually meant an overnight journey.

However, the government launched a major upgrade of the nation's overstretched railway system over the past two decades.

It took more than 20 years to bump up the speed of passenger trains from 43 km/h in 1978 to 100 km/h in 2001.

But it took only nine years to triple it to 350 km/h, said Xu Fangliang, general engineer in charge of designing the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed line.

The average speed of the high-speed railway is 243 km/h in Japan, 232 km/h in Germany and 277 km/h in France, he said.

A kid enjoys the ride on the new high-speed Wuhan-Guangzhou rial line on Saturday.

China will build 42 high-speed passenger rail lines with a total length of 13,000 km in the next three years, covering more than 90 percent of the population.

By 2012, trips from Beijing to most provincial capitals would only take between one and eight hours, said Wang Yongping, the Railway Ministry spokesman.

High-speed rail services from Beijing to Hong Kong are expected to open in three years, cutting the journey from 23 hours to eight. The one-way trip from Shanghai to Hong Kong will be shortened to six hours from the current 18, he said.

High-speed trains not only shorten the distance between cities but also change the speed of China's economic growth, said Wang Xiaoguang, a professor with the Chinese Academy of Governance.

China, a vast country that is often worried about the wide income gap between its highly developed coastal areas and the lagging interior, is looking to the railways to help spread the wealth, he said.

China has adopted a strategy of developing the west and invigorating the central region for about 10 years, thus reducing social and economic imbalances.

But the initiative has been hampered by the slow and expensive transport system, both passenger and cargo. However, "things will change in the future as fast-train lines may help reduce these problems", Wang said.

A high-speed rail line linking Zhengzhou, capital of Henan province and Xi'an, the ancient capital in the northwest Shaanxi province, will be opened soon.

"This will encourage more coastal industries to invest in the northwest where resource and labor costs are lower," Wang said.

Experts also said the upgrade to a high-speed network will allow the old lines to be used for cargo, thus helping inland regions to transport its resources and products efficiently to the eastern ports.

"In the peak traffic season such as Spring Festival ... the railway bureaus have to suspend freight transportation to guarantee smooth passenger flow," Wang said.

"The bottleneck is likely to be eliminated. As high-speed passenger trains ease the pressure on traffic, the railways will focus more on cargo transportation."

Last edited by touchring; 28th December 2009 at 02:45 AM..
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