Will France and Germany bailout Greece? - IDN Forums

touchring · #1 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 05:52 AM

Any thoughts from the ground?

bumblebee man · #2 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 11:58 AM

Nope, a bailout would be against the treaty of Lisbon.

At first the EU will force Greece to cut spending. And if that fails, we'll see what happens. Possibly they'll even leave the eurozone.

touchring · #3 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bumblebee man

Nope, a bailout would be against the treaty of Lisbon.

At first the EU will force Greece to cut spending. And if that fails, we'll see what happens. Possibly they'll even leave the eurozone.

really? I read that German banks will incur losses if Greece is not bailed out. If you think about it, £26billion isn't a lot of money, it's only a little more than the bonuses that US bank Goldman sach pays in one year? lol

Rubber Duck · #4 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 12:36 PM

Either way, it is a bit like wondering if a crisis in Hawaii is going to bring down the US. There wasn't even a contiguous border until Bulgaria joined.

Frankly, this is all a bit of a smoke screen to divert the World's attention from the mess the US is in. They are trying to bring down Germany and France by association, whilst at the same time saying there is no link. Goebbels would have been proud.

bumblebee man · #5 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by touchring

really? I read that German banks will incur losses if Greece is not bailed out. If you think about it, £26billion isn't a lot of money, it's only a little more than the bonuses that US bank Goldman sach pays in one year? lol

Well, it's pretty complicated.

There is the economic point of view:

On one hand:

Yes, a bankruptcy could be more expensive than a bailout. Investors would have to write off their credits which could make them struggle as well. And Greece leaving the eurozone won't help as they would have to repay their debts in Euros.

On the other hand:

A monetary union which bails out participating countries can't work as there will always be the incentive to borrow more money than optimal. As interest rates rise for ALL countries a single country would always be better off borrowing more and more, because they could take the advantage for themselves and share the disadvantage with the others.

The political / juristic point of view:

On one hand:

There is a possibility for financial help within the EU according to article 122 of the Lisbon treaty.

On the other hand:

This only applies for crises which aren't self-caused (like natural desasters). But the Greek crisis clearly is self-caused. It's the result of corruption and ingrained inability to reform. And they even faked their economic statistics when entering the eurozone. Furthermore article 125 of the Lisbon treaty clearly denies the option of a bailout.

The situation is pretty much fucked up and it might be a choice between bad and worse. Personally I think a bailout is worse.

PS: Wenn saying the Greek I mean the government and not the citizens of course. No offense to Alexd. :p

bumblebee man · #6 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

Either way, it is a bit like wondering if a crisis in Hawaii is going to bring down the US.

True. Greece is responsible for about two and a half percent of the GDP in the EU.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

Goebbels would have been proud.

I didn't get that.

Would you please stop mentioning the war?

Rubber Duck · #7 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 02:28 PM

So you would advocate selling California to the highest bidder, and perhaps throw in Florida to sweeten the deal?

alpha · #8 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bumblebee man

Would you please stop mentioning the war?

lol

are you sure you're German? I mean you seem to have a good sense of humour

please take this test and report back the results

bumblebee man · #9 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alpha

lol

are you sure you're German? I mean you seem to have a good sense of humour

please take this test and report back the results

Quote:

Originally Posted by test result

Ooh, you probably speak German, know a few Germans in person, and have spent some time in the Country. You are quite likely to actually be German, or at least, European. You like tidiness, and quite possibly recycle your rubbish.

alpha · #10 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bumblebee man

were you honest about the sock/sandals combination?

bumblebee man · #11 (**permalink**) 8th February 2010, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alpha

were you honest about the sock/sandals combination?

Yes, it fits pretty well with my Lederhose. :D

rofsjan · #12 (**permalink**) 9th February 2010, 08:33 PM

Germany didn't confirm bailout today

Drewbert · #13 (**permalink**) 9th February 2010, 09:02 PM

Let the rumour last long enough for the inside players to make their money.

touchring · #14 (**permalink**) 10th February 2010, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bumblebee man

The situation is pretty much fucked up and it might be a choice between bad and worse. Personally I think a bailout is worse.

I reckon that they will be trying to talk bailout, without actually bailing out. I read that 1 out of 3 Greeks are employed by the Greek government. That's nasty.

Emil · #15 (**permalink**) 10th February 2010, 06:28 PM

this is a clear negotiation: Greece lied to EU about thier fiscal/economic situation, EU is pissed about it. now that Greece is screwed, they come crying for help to EU and even China. To make sure they learned thier lesson and dont overspend again like they did, EU will help, but they will take thier pound worth of flesh out of them. There will be no default, make no mistake about it!!! Greece defaults, rest of PIGS will follow, so will most of the banking system in Germany/France since who else you think owns those crappy bonds issued by Greece? it will get worse before it gets better, but ultimately no default.

if Germany gives money too easily, no one learns their lesson. And thats not how it works: any financing package will come with severe contingencies, like serious fiscal adjustments similar to what Latvia went thru not so long ago (public sector wages were cut 20-30%!!!). Not sure if Greece is ready for it, but they will...no other exit for them...

rofsjan · #16 (**permalink**) 10th February 2010, 08:30 PM

Interesting discussion (see this video)

**sbe18** · #17 (**permalink**) 10th February 2010, 11:50 PM

I guess it is time to rent 'Guns of Navarone' again....(grin)
s/

Drewbert · #18 (**permalink**) 11th February 2010, 03:33 AM

Get it on Bluray. Much better.

touchring · #19 (**permalink**) 11th February 2010, 05:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Emil

Greece defaults, rest of PIGS will follow, so will most of the banking system in Germany/France since who else you think owns those crappy bonds issued by Greece? it will get worse before it gets better, but ultimately no default.

Germany and France can always bailout their own banks. Didn't the UK did just that when Iceland defaulted?

A weaker EURO is not always a bad thing - for a net exporter like Germany.

Rubber Duck · #20 (**permalink**) 11th February 2010, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by touchring

Germany and France can always bailout their own banks. Didn't the UK did just that when Iceland defaulted?

A weaker EURO is not always a bad thing - for a net exporter like Germany.

Well sort of. They partially nationalized them, as opposed to the US model of handing out blank cheques with no accountability framework. Still its only dollars. Ben can always print some more! Frankly much of this is a smoke screen being instigated by US Agency, much like the Toyota storm, I suspect. I mean lets be honest, who here even now would take a Ford, Chrysler or GM in place of a Toyota or Honda?