Japanese #1 Today. Chinese #1 in 5 years. - IDN Forums

gammascalper · #1 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 06:14 PM

Here's a rough attempt to quantify the value of IDN .COM by language now, and 5 years from now.

The underlying assumption is that increases in (Online users * GDP per capita) translates into proportionate increases in e-commerce activity and filters down to domain traffic and value.

The liberty I've taken is with gTLD/ccTLD diffusion.

Edit: Egypt GDP was taken as a proxy for its neighbors. This is probably 25% too low.

Rip it apart boys!

IDN.gif

touchring · #2 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 06:24 PM

Another area to consider is the propensity to type-in local characters.

The GDP per capita for China of $6200 should be PPP, but is likely to apply to Internet users that are mostly from urban cities. The mean income of internet users may reduce in 5 years as people from smaller cities with lower income gets onto the Internet.

Explorer · #3 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 06:31 PM

There is no Spanish?

gammascalper · #4 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 06:34 PM

There's no Spanish because I have no Spanish IDN... sorry.

This grew out of an exercise to determine where Russian IDN should be priced based on comparison.

touchring · #5 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 06:37 PM

The ctld diffusion for Russian is 100%?

The ctld diffusion for Japanese should be higher than Chinese in 5 years. .jp is relatively stronger.

gammascalper · #6 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by touchring

The mean income of internet users may reduce in 5 years as people from smaller cities with lower income gets onto the Internet.

Good point... that said, no matter how you reasonably tweak the assumptions, China will dwarf all other markets in 5+ years.

Explorer · #7 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 06:39 PM

The assumptions about .cn and .jp taking 60% share might be a little agressive. While it's possible that .cn outruns .com, IDN.com is a king right now.

IDN.TV · #8 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 06:53 PM

I think in 5 years you might see India in the picture, but definetly in 10 years india will be in the top few. If only the Web industry grows as fast as the stock market.

touchring · #9 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IDN.TV

I think in 5 years you might see India in the picture, but definetly in 10 years india will be in the top few. If only the Web industry grows as fast as the stock market.

It will be a little tricky to measure India's case as we are talking about IDNs.

gammascalper · #10 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IDN.TV

I think in 5 years you might see India in the picture, but definetly in 10 years india will be in the top few. If only the Web industry grows as fast as the stock market.

I thought about estimating the % of Hindi users who prefer to communicate online in Hindi, as opposed to English or the many other languages, but I'll leave that to the pros! Any ideas?

There are many moving parts not included in this rough guide -- differing rates of population growth is one notable omission. Trying to project a broad picture while adhering to K.I.S.S.

touchring · #11 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gammascalper

I thought about estimating the % of Hindi users who prefer to communicate online in Hindi, as opposed to English or the many other languages, but I'll leave that to the pros! Any ideas?

There are many moving parts not included in this rough guide -- differing rates of population growth is one notable omission. Trying to project a broad picture while adhering to K.I.S.S.

It would have to be based on typing, not just communication, i.e. reading, or talking. A.K.A. the propensity to type-in IDN.

gammascalper · #12 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Explorer

The assumptions about .cn and .jp taking 60% share might be a little agressive. While it's possible that .cn outruns .com, IDN.com is a king right now.

Agreed... I'm being purposefully conservative with regards to IDN .COM

Quote:

Originally Posted by touchring

It would have to be based on typing, not just communication, i.e. reading, or talking. A.K.A. the propensity to type-in IDN.

That's a tough variable to nail down until we see some real traffic. By then, this will be a long-lost thread.

Giant · #13 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 08:06 PM

Good job Gamma. Quite reasonable estimate!

alpha · #14 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 09:41 PM

Nice one Gamma.

I would maybe add one more variable in there...

Can you inflate the population figures in 5 years - they will of course climb, but I have no idea by how much - is it enough to make a difference?

gammascalper · #15 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 09:56 PM

I remember reading something about Japanese population growth being negative, and China's one-child policy being flouted, so population growth may make a real difference. If anyone finds some numbers, post 'em.

I'll also include Spanish IDN since there are 380mm native speakers and Spain's GDP per cap is $24k. That was a glaring oversight brought to light by Explorer. But there will need to be a dampening factor to deal with ASCII character leakage. If anyone has both ASCII and IDN versions of popular Spanish names, we can extrapolate from there.

alpha · #16 (**permalink**) 8th May 2006, 10:03 PM

The more developed countries in Europe and North America, as well as Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, are growing by less than 1 percent annually. Population growth rates are negative in many European countries, including Russia (-0.6%), Estonia (-0.5%), Hungary (-0.4%), and Ukraine (-0.4%)

China rather surpisingly isn't alot higher: Annual growth rate was 1.07% so it would add another 66m to the population approx