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View Poll Results: How much more to wait?
I can't understand how it is still so quiet and am worried regarding the outcome 1 3.13%
Any day now, no more then the end of 2011 2 6.25%
After the applications are published (or any other reason) so around 1st half of 2012 3 9.38%
Only when things go live around the end of 2012 12 37.50%
Nothing major will happen before 2013 (If ever?) 14 43.75%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 17th July 2011, 06:39 PM
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"Turning Point"?

When do you expect more interest to begin, more traffic, more $, more awareness and much less uncertainty? Vote via poll, comments are welcome.
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Old 17th July 2011, 07:17 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

I, and I know others, are worried that this isn't going to take off anytime soon. At least for a year or two. There is going to be much more waiting on bureaucracy BS paperwork.

Unless, of course, a fast-track is proposed by the GNSO or Verisign for major languages. Which to me seems unlikely, personally. If that happens it could take off anytime.

Man, who would have thought we'd still be waiting in 2011 after all these years? I thought 3 years tops when I started. Shows how much I know. Which makes me hesitant to even try to predict. It'd just make a liar out of me again.

I've thought about developing but then it seems premature. I don't know. I guess more waiting. If anything, I've learned what 'patience' actually means from all this.

Sure you get $50-500 offers. But, I've yet to see a 25k or comparable ASCII offer for a comparable IDN. Disappointed, I guess, is the best word for it.

Real offers aren't going to come until .IDNgTLDs go live. Companies and business aren't following the meetings, policies, papers. They will wait for the 'real IDN' even though we already know what our domains are to become. Trying to explain policy to an offer on your domain is excruciatingly painful. They just don't get it.

But, enough of my ramblings...

Last edited by sarcle; 17th July 2011 at 07:21 PM..
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Old 17th July 2011, 07:37 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

I have personally contacted both ICANN and Verisign about the possibility of pushing for IDN.IDN fast track for existing gTLDs. I don't have much hope that they would do this eventhough I feel it seems to make a lot of sense for everyone involved but we have seen how ICANN moves at snail pace so I am not holding my breath there. It also appears ICANN doesn't really care/feel that there is urgent need for IDN.IDN in various strings to go live sooner than the rest of gTLDs

I feel that end of 2012 should be a turning point for more interest for idn.com (in IDN) in various languages. It will however take another year or two subsequently for interest to accelerate dramatically as the mainstream market will only follow once they see IDN.IDN popping up everywhere on search engines. Only then will the corporate interests be more serious.
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Old 17th July 2011, 07:43 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

I have totally given up on the idea of selling domains.

I doubt anyone has the vision to pay what they are really worth.

Namedrive is proving to me that the parking model works.

That should soon generate enough revenue to keep everone happy.

The last thing I need is somebody turning up with a couple of dozen racing camels.
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Old 17th July 2011, 08:07 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

"uncertainty" is the key word here, certainty can create bull markets,speculation can only take you so far. You can see by the forum how far its has taken us. Names sell for small amounts and there is no influx of new cash coming in. Only the very very ultra premium names have changed hands at nice pricing levels. i don't think we will see much change until we are live so sometime in 2013. Imo any major shift however will also depend on the levels of traffic we expect to see. Will we see a 2x factor in traffic pickup? or a 3x? or does a tsunami of traffic slam us? This to me will have the biggest impact on pricing and levels of interest. Sure we should see and would expect to see another round of speculation, but those are cycles that come and go and don't reflect true underlying values. i really think traffic has always been and will be the biggest factor here. When there is truly gold in them hills they will come a running.
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Old 17th July 2011, 08:19 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Well, I am expecting about double this month to last month.

Admittedly traffic growthis not the biggest driver at the moment. The demand side is driving things at the moment, but traffic is also rising steadily.
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Old 17th July 2011, 08:51 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

I expect it to get quieter in here if anything.

People that have decent portfolios are seeing increasing traffic month by month. They have their potential pot of gold, they aren't going to sell, certainly not for the pittances on offer here.

There is no new money coming in, that's for sure. That will only change once all the uncertainty has gone, we'll have to wait for VeriSign and 2013 for that.

Might as well lock the forum down for a year to be honest
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Old 17th July 2011, 09:16 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck View Post
I doubt anyone has the vision to pay what they are really worth.
They are worth what the market pays for them.
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Old 17th July 2011, 10:19 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jose View Post
They are worth what the market pays for them.
Not according to the FED and US banks when it comes to CDO etc. But then that really is a Ponzi scheme.

A deal is only a deal if you have both a buyer and a seller.

The buyer has little or no say as to whether things come onto the market.

Nobody can sell their house at the market but try knocking on a few doors and offering 10 Buck at a time and you see what you get.

To be honest there is not much on here I would bid at all. If I see something I like at a price I like, then I will buy it.

Frankly, I look at most of what is for sale here and then ask myself what the catch is. There usually is one if look hard enough. You have to ask yourself why people are selling domains for peanuts. If you look hard enough, then you will usually find your answer.
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Last edited by Rubber Duck; 17th July 2011 at 10:22 PM..
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Old 17th July 2011, 10:29 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrafficDomainer View Post
It also appears ICANN doesn't really care/feel that there is urgent need for IDN.IDN in various strings to go live sooner than the rest of gTLDs
You're right though. It seems they've already patted themselves on their backs and said, "Well, you non-ascii based speakers already have .IDNccTLDs. That's good enough for right now. You're welcome. Oh, and to the rest of the world under repressive regimes that tightly control/censor their ccTLDs, Tough titty!"

I wonder who let the ball drop on .IDN gTLDs? Originally they were supposed to be equally introduced. Someone trying to profit on the influx of new gTLD applications perhaps?
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Old 18th July 2011, 12:06 AM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcle View Post
I wonder who let the ball drop on .IDN gTLDs? Originally they were supposed to be equally introduced. Someone trying to profit on the influx of new gTLD applications perhaps?
More likely this is a version of the usual bureaucratic, "If I let you do this, then I would have to let everyone do this." If ICANN let Verisign and PIR create "new" gTLDs (even though they are IDN aliases of existing .com, .net, and .org), they would have to justify that decision to everyone else who wants a new gTLD. Easier (for ICANN, if not for the non-English speakers of the world) to make Verisign and PIR wait in line with everyone else, and not spend precious staff and board time designing and justifying a special-purpose process.

As for the poll question: It all depends on when Verisign starts marketing their IDN versions of .com. If I were them, I would wait until the applications were approved by ICANN. But they seem less cautious than me; they are already starting to spread the word. I wonder if they have more than $750K budgeted for marketing?

Avtal
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Old 18th July 2011, 04:02 AM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
If ICANN let Verisign and PIR create "new" gTLDs (even though they are IDN aliases of existing .com, .net, and .org), they would have to justify that decision to everyone else who wants a new gTLD
But wasn't that the whole position of ICANN anyways? "One World. One Internet." Weren't IDN ALWAYS a priority? It was until the end when they basically said, "Well .IDN ccTLDs are a priority. .IDN gTLDs aren't. And that whole releasing them together so we don't give any TLD an advantage. Yeah, that was bullshit."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avtal View Post
But they seem less cautious than me; they are already starting to spread the word. I wonder if they have more than $750K budgeted for marketing?
Avtal
This is a game-changer. They have to have more money lined up to promote this. This will open up the entire world to Verisign and PIR. People will buy domains just because they are in their language and they can. .рф proved that. What does $750k even get you anymore? A 30 second spot on one national television, a billboard, and maybe a box of streamers and party hats? How do you wake the world up with $750k?
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Old 18th July 2011, 12:08 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jose View Post
They are worth what the market pays for them.
How about auctioning off your whole portfolio with no reserve then?

The general domain market is pretty far away from perfect competition. That's because end users don't tend to look through drop lists or domain forums. If they did there wouldn't be any room for speculation and there wouldn't be any domainers.

The IDN market is even less competitive. 8 people backorderd Хостинг.com at Snapnames. Perfect competition with 8 participants? No way.
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Last edited by bumblebee man; 18th July 2011 at 12:46 PM..
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Old 18th July 2011, 12:39 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

One big catalyst is when the Mercantile Nations realise that the US economy is completely FUBAR and the markets that matter their own domestic markets.
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Old 18th July 2011, 04:22 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bumblebee man View Post
The IDN market is even less competitive. 8 people backorderd Хостинг.com at Snapnames. Perfect competition with 8 participants? No way.


Shhhhh....
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Old 18th July 2011, 05:10 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bumblebee man View Post
The IDN market is even less competitive. 8 people backorderd Хостинг.com at Snapnames. Perfect competition with 8 participants? No way.
Who let THAT PUPPY drop?
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Old 18th July 2011, 08:36 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

IDNs for different languages are different. There probably will not be a single turning point for all languages, especially when you consider not all languages will be included in the first round. I do not think turning point will come right after IDN.IDN goes alive. Majority of the people in the world just will not even notice it. Even they read the news, they forget it quickly, just like all the news we have heard before. How can it produce any impact? Will VeriSign spend a lot of money to promote .com IDN around the world? Come on. We are smarter than that.
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Old 18th July 2011, 10:12 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDN.IDN View Post
IDNs for different languages are different. There probably will not be a single turning point for all languages, especially when you consider not all languages will be included in the first round. I do not think turning point will come right after IDN.IDN goes alive. Majority of the people in the world just will not even notice it. Even they read the news, they forget it quickly, just like all the news we have heard before. How can it produce any impact? Will VeriSign spend a lot of money to promote .com IDN around the world? Come on. We are smarter than that.
I can't help but laugh at some of the opinions on here. My traffic scores tell me that people are not even hanging around for Idn.Idn. We are getting huge amount of traffic on IDN dot Coms. In fact, I am getting enough traffic now to tell you with a fair degree of certainty that Dot Net get some where between 15 and 20% of the traffic of dot Com for the same keyword.

If you had listen to people of here a few months ago, they would have told you right to left traffic was impossible with IDN.IDN, but I am in a position to assure you that is nonsense.

Who knows what Verisign will do. Dot Com is already a global brand. They could easily afford to promote IDN.IDN if they thought it were a valuable thing to do. Most probably they will just push some of their bigger Clients into and let them do the marketing for them.

The point is this going viral at some point in time. It can be very hard to predict when that happens. I don't know, you don't, sure as hell ICANN doesn't know, but Verisign could well have a plan. All you need is a big Coke compaign or something similar in IDN.IDN and the World would likely be changed overnight. Maybe Facebook will go for a Chinese IDN.IDN. Who knows? One day you will wake up and it will all be over.

The question is, when that happens will anyone with an interesting story to tell even bother to come here to discuss it? Who knows?
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Old 18th July 2011, 10:22 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDN.IDN View Post
Will VeriSign spend a lot of money to promote .com IDN around the world? Come on. We are smarter than that.
Lol. Yes, I believe Verisign will do nothing to maintain their global dominance. Especially on a product that could potentially bring in BILLIONS. How could I have been so stupid to believe they would?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
The point is this going viral at some point in time. It can be very hard to predict when that happens. I don't know, you don't, sure as hell ICANN doesn't know, but Verisign could well have a plan. All you need is a big Coke compaign or something similar in IDN.IDN and the World would likely be changed overnight. Maybe Facebook will go for a Chinese IDN.IDN. Who knows? One day you will wake up and it will all be over.
Word.
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Old 18th July 2011, 11:18 PM
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Re: "Turning Point"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcle View Post
Lol. Yes, I believe Verisign will do nothing to maintain their global dominance. Especially on a product that could potentially bring in BILLIONS. How could I have been so stupid to believe they would?
Well, which countries do you think Verisign will spend money on? There are countries where .com is not dominant now. Have Verisign spent any money to change that? There are also countries where .com is dominant. Was that because Verisign did some marketing there? If Verisign calculates ROI, the best strategy for them is waiting for the market to grow by itself. I guess that is what we have to do for our IDNs in the next a few years.

Last edited by IDN.IDN; 18th July 2011 at 11:19 PM..
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