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View Poll Results: How much more traffic will idn。コム receive over idn.com
No increase 1 7.69%
0-2x 1 7.69%
>2x-5x 6 46.15%
>5x-10x 1 7.69%
We're rich! 4 30.77%
Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 6th September 2011, 08:31 AM
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Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

It's no secret that Japanese IDN.com are money makers. How much more traffic do you think the IDN.IDN will receive?

Your wild ass guesses are welcome.
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Old 6th September 2011, 09:05 AM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

I think the entire question is wrong. IDN.IDN may get 2x-5x what IDN.com gets post the dawn of Public Awareness. It might almost equally as well not get as much. The real issue is how much traffic will IDN get in total as compared with now and who will get it. My belief is that the answer to the first question is your scales is not even appropriate. It needs to be be a Log Scale, i.e. 10x, 100x, 1000x, 10000x. And frankly I have little idea where it will fall exactly, but it will be towards the top end of what I have put down. Getting to who will get that traffic, well I am absolutely convinced that it will be the IDN.com investors. They are the ones getting it todate despite the existence of IDN.IDN.
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Old 6th September 2011, 05:39 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

I agree that it's the wrong question, as it doesn't matter in the slightest if .com or .コムgets more traffic so long as both are owned by the same entity.

A better question would be "after IDN.コム is launched (and assuming that IDN.com owners get first crack at the equivalent IDN.コム) then what is the overall increase in value of the PAIR of domains?"

I would suggest that they go up 10x on the first day, because of the "elimination of doubt" factor i.e. for the first time it's 100% crystal clear that if you want a Japanese IDN domain in ".com" you have ONE AND ONLY ONE person to deal with: the owner of the name-pair in question.
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Old 6th September 2011, 07:05 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin View Post
I agree that it's the wrong question, as it doesn't matter in the slightest if .com or .コム gets more traffic..
I think you'll find it does.

Gamma's assumption was that value was determined by the amount of traffic a domain is getting (not some arbitrary value that we just slap on because we think it's valuable)

so the question is, how much more traffic will an aliased .コム bring ?
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Old 6th September 2011, 07:25 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Just goes to underline why there is no clarity in the market.

Even you lot can seem to get a unified vision of where this is going.

Traffic probably does not determine the market value, but it will give a clear indication of where the market is going.
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Old 6th September 2011, 08:01 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

This might give a rough estimate:



In the past year and a half .com and .コム are fairly competitive.
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Old 6th September 2011, 08:09 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Quote:
Originally Posted by thefabfive View Post
In the past year and a half .com and .コム are fairly competitive.
Interesting
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Old 6th September 2011, 08:19 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Interesting maybe, but it bares no real correlation to actual type in, as far as I can see.
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Old 6th September 2011, 09:33 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck View Post
Interesting maybe, but it bares no real correlation to actual type in, as far as I can see.
Search volume not correlated to type-ins? Hmmm. Overture, Google trends, Yandex Wordstat, and Google Keyword tools were just red herrings then.

What this shows me is that roughly the same number of people type in "楽天.コム" and "楽天.com" into the search bar. Which implies a similar number (not the same number that type into the search bar) of people type-in these domains into the address bar. Wild guess.
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Old 6th September 2011, 09:53 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

for some it will be market driven by the traffic...
for others it will be market driven by the branding value or branding potential.
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Old 6th September 2011, 09:54 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Another interesting trend



I think you'll see these cross early next year.
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Old 6th September 2011, 10:23 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

For what it is worth, เกมส์.คอม [games.com in Thai] that doesn't exist is already getting 2.85 times the type-in compared to เกมส์.com :

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%E0%B...=0&sort=0&sa=N

Another example of my Thai IDN, "รถ.คอม" [car(s).com in Thai] is getting 5.6 times the type-in of "รถ.com" :

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%E0%B...=0&sort=0&sa=N


The examples above clearly demonstrate that Thais have stronger preferences for ".คอม" [.com in Thai] (despite them not being in existence) compared to the existing IDN.coms. I have faith that once Thai IDN.coms go IDN.IDN and people are made aware of their existence, Thai type-in will increase many many times. Should be the same for other languages people here invested in as well.

Last edited by TrafficDomainer; 6th September 2011 at 10:53 PM..
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Old 6th September 2011, 10:39 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Quote:
Originally Posted by thefabfive View Post
Search volume not correlated to type-ins? Hmmm. Overture, Google trends, Yandex Wordstat, and Google Keyword tools were just red herrings then.

What this shows me is that roughly the same number of people type in "楽天.コム" and "楽天.com" into the search bar. Which implies a similar number (not the same number that type into the search bar) of people type-in these domains into the address bar. Wild guess.
Well, if you believe these results, which incidentally I am struggling to, then search volume is dropping on IDN.com. What, we do know about type-in on IDN.com is that it is exploding.

Where exactly is the correlation?
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Old 6th September 2011, 10:41 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

It's all possibly good and helpful indications or misleading indications at times but if you have the best name for example category i think everything else will continue to fall into place at least as it did until now (not as quick as we would have liked but the road had no turns anyone didn't see coming and hopefully have no chance to meet any of these unexpected turns where it stands today and like always please comment if you see it otherwise).

Once both the .com and .ком or .コム will resolve i think we will see all those early indications graphs will resemble the flat lines in Heart rate monitor and i assume the localized version will be favored and typed in more then the ASCII .com in many multiples.

Last edited by 555; 6th September 2011 at 10:47 PM..
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Old 6th September 2011, 10:51 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Obviously there are multiple variables to this equation, but what the graph shows is that people probably are typing in the .IDN versions of these domains.

Educated guess says that traffic will increase a significant amount.
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Old 6th September 2011, 11:01 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Quote:
Originally Posted by 555 View Post
Once both the .com and .ком or .コム will resolve i think we will see all those early indications graphs will resemble the flat lines in Heart rate monitor and i assume the localized version will be favored and typed in more then the ASCII .com in many multiples.
For many Thai IDNs, the localized version (i.e .คอม) is already being favored and typed in despite them not being in existence as demonstrated above.
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Old 6th September 2011, 11:08 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

PS : a descending google trend line doesnt mean less search volume, it just means a decreasing proportion of the entire searches are for this particular term.
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Old 6th September 2011, 11:13 PM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Quote:
Originally Posted by squirrel View Post
PS : a descending google trend line doesnt mean less search volume, it just means a decreasing proportion of the entire searches are for this particular term.
Exactly
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Old 7th September 2011, 06:04 AM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Another factor that needs to be considered is click value. Japanese is currently the highest in the World, but this may be due to scarcity value, as the Japanese don[t generally do type-in. If that habit changes, the value of Japanese clicks could drop. Where I have seen large increases in Japanese traffic, a sharp drop off in value generally occurs occurs pretty quickly in my experience.
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Old 7th September 2011, 06:47 AM
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Re: Wild guess: how much more traffic will Japanese 。コム get over .com

Quote:
Originally Posted by thefabfive View Post
This might give a rough estimate:



In the past year and a half .com and .コム are fairly competitive.
To type that, would you have to first type hiragana+space to find the kanji and swtich to katakana after the dot?
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