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Old 4th January 2006, 01:06 PM
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Trying to estimate future traffic

Just trying to come up with another idea on how to value our IDNs.  Let’s say there is a current portfolio of IDNs that generate 1000 visitors a month.  What will that number be once IE7 is up and running?  My understanding is that IE5 and IE6 control approximately 97% of the market (or at least in my targeted countries).  So, those 1000 visitors are coming from “other” 3% browsers.  So, once IE7 is up and running, those “3%” will jump to almost “100%”, giving the portfolio a multiple of approximately 30.  I also assume that out of those 3%, half of the people are not even aware they could type in IDNs.  So, total “multiple” would be 60, giving the portfolio an estimated value of 60,000 visitors a month.  Of course, my estimations may be way off.  What do you guys think?
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Old 4th January 2006, 01:32 PM
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Re: Trying to estimate future traffic

You're forgetting the influence of enduser promotion, IE7 alone won't give it the final market value, it will just increase the traffic from lousy to mediocre. We need popular sites that use an IDN as their primary domain.
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Old 4th January 2006, 01:36 PM
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Re: Trying to estimate future traffic

I'm not so optimistic, i believe in the scenario that in the medium term, only prime keywords (e.g. adult, gambling, financial, etc) and city names will be worth money.  The rest might be only drop value or reg value+ regardless of the OVT.

We're now experiencing a hype not dissimilar to the dot com boom in which people try to register any IDN they can find using online dictionary/translators.  My portfolio is 40% city/country names and 10% prime keywords - i expect to drop the other 50% if things turn out that way after 1 year. 

The 40% city and 10% prime keywords i have will more than offset the loss incurred, including time cost.
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Old 4th January 2006, 01:53 PM
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Re: Trying to estimate future traffic

That depends on how you look at the market.
From my standpoint I am going to try to develop the IDN market which includes launching at least a few Japanese IDN sites.
Once the SEO algorithm get's better & people can park domains properly things will get better.
As far as how much better & in what time frame we'd all be lying if we said we knew.

I think IDN domains will get more noticed soon in Japan at least by the end of the year. I've recently discoved a few IDN jp in Google Japan search results.
I was researching adult terms & an IDN jp popped up like #5 in Google Japan.
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Old 4th January 2006, 02:03 PM
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Re: Trying to estimate future traffic

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olney
That depends on how you look at the market.
From my standpoint I am going to try to develop the IDN market which includes launching at least a few Japanese IDN sites.
Once the SEO algorithm get's better & people can park domains properly things will get better.
As far as how much better & in what time frame we'd all be lying if we said we knew.

I think IDN domains will get more noticed soon in Japan at least by the end of the year. I've recently discoved a few IDN jp in Google Japan search results.
I was researching adult terms & an IDN jp popped up like #5 in Google Japan.
I'm talking about the medium term - most of us here look are looking at a 6 months to 2 years timeframe. In the long run, 5-10 years, the situation might be very different.
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Old 4th January 2006, 02:53 PM
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Re: Trying to estimate future traffic

Quote:
Originally Posted by Explorer
Just trying to come up with another idea on how to value our IDNs. Let’s say there is a current portfolio of IDNs that generate 1000 visitors a month. What will that number be once IE7 is up and running? My understanding is that IE5 and IE6 control approximately 97% of the market (or at least in my targeted countries). So, those 1000 visitors are coming from “other” 3% browsers. So, once IE7 is up and running, those “3%” will jump to almost “100%”, giving the portfolio a multiple of approximately 30. I also assume that out of those 3%, half of the people are not even aware they could type in IDNs. So, total “multiple” would be 60, giving the portfolio an estimated value of 60,000 visitors a month. Of course, my estimations may be way off. What do you guys think?
I would suggest that you are way low on this. What you have forgotten is that at the moment there is no content to reinforce the type-in habit. Do it a dozen times and get nothing then you soon get bored.

Once there is browser support, then companies cannot ignore IDN as it gives a distinct SEO advantage in Asian Languages. Content increases and browser is rewarded for his efforts of typing-in. The result is that he will do much, much more of it and probably tell his friends, who will then share the experience. I would guess a factor of 1000 could be conservative!

The best method of calculation is take an English Keyword and divide by the number of English speaking computer users and then multiply by the number of computer users in another market. That will give you an idea of what kind of traffic can ultimately be expected. Divide by 10 to be conservative. It will still produce much bigger numbers than your method.

Of course it won't happen overnight, but numbers of computers in the markets is increasing very rapidly in some case.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon
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Old 5th January 2006, 07:07 AM
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Re: Trying to estimate future traffic

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olney
That depends on how you look at the market.
From my standpoint I am going to try to develop the IDN market which includes launching at least a few Japanese IDN sites.
Once the SEO algorithm get's better & people can park domains properly things will get better.
As far as how much better & in what time frame we'd all be lying if we said we knew.

I think IDN domains will get more noticed soon in Japan at least by the end of the year. I've recently discoved a few IDN jp in Google Japan search results.
I was researching adult terms & an IDN jp popped up like #5 in Google Japan.
hey man what are you using to park your IDN names
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