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Old 20th September 2012, 06:02 PM
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War, anybody?

interesting look at current global situation.
Quite interesting in the light of many local tentions lately. This is a google translation from russian
Personally, I think the author paints too gloomy of a picture, no war on horizon yet, but what very well may happen (and I think, will eventually happen because it makes sense), is US, Canada and some countries of Latin America (m.b. Mexico and Brazil) will merge or will form some kind of a Federation, make Americas a fortress, independent and selfsufficient- and dump the rest of the world to it's own pitiful destiny .
I think we have two emerging conflicts-in Asia and Middle east. There is no peaceful way to prevent them, it's just a matter of time. they may break out any time despite many countries (US especially) efforts to delay them
-------------------------------------------------

Global systemic crisis grows naturally in the era of conflicts, wars and riots
 
The dramatic worsening Sino-Japanese conflict over the Senkaku Islands has led many to talk about the threat of war in the Pacific. But is this form foci of future battles? Globe today covered by them as red sores. The world after the dismemberment of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the capitalist-neoliberal experiment ran to the era of numerous conflicts merged.
Gentlemen, welcome to the years of redistribution of the already divided world! The shadow of Lenin and Stalin smile. Prevent global transition to the stage of the Great Recession world turmoil is impossible.
 
CHINA: PDA saves Nationalism
So, China has gone to the conflict with Japan. Context:
"... The Chinese have made a real provocation initiate sending a" group of patriots "from Hong Kong to the disputed Senkaku Islands, which now controls Tokyo. Japan is quite moderate response (deportation offenders and send them to the island of their own group of patriots) caused riotous reaction of China. Across the country were protests, the population of thunder Japanese cars and shops. A Chinese commentators competed in patriotism: the group is asked to send to the islands for "scientific research", along with ships and troops to protect them, and a possible war with Japan was called a great way to wash away the humiliation that China experienced in the past century.
Japan ... can not lose these islands: in their territorial waters are deposits of hydrocarbons, production of which will help the country to abandon nuclear energy, reduce dependence on imported energy. That is why after the Chinese demarche Japanese abandoned politeness and respect for the status quo. If, before the conflict was part of the Senkaku Islands in private ownership (Japanese authorities actually rented the land, and the Chinese happy with this situation), 10 September, the Government of Japan has decided to purchase three of the five islands - Uotsuridzima, Kitakodzima and Minamikodzima - for $ 26 million. The transaction took place in the morning of September 11. "This is just the transfer of land from the hands of the Japanese private owners with property ..." (Gevorg Mirzayan. "For six stars» - http://expert.ru/expert/2012/37/za-shestoj-zvezdoj/)
Deterioration of the military-nationalist campaign in China for a long time could have been foreseen. The Communist Party of China (CPC) has an acute crisis of the old model of development - and quite naturally translates possible dissatisfaction of the people in the power of the party and the nationalist passions of the masses to shift focus to an external enemy. Operate several factors.
The first - more than thirty years the policy of "one family - one child" has led to a huge predominance of young male population of the cities, to whom not enough young women for marriage. For parents of these men, using ultrasound, abortions, if diagnostics reported the girl in the womb, but the boys left. For the son of a Chinese - holy. As a result, the PRC due to a disproportionate increase in the share of young men growing violence. (Overabundance of young people in Germany of the 1920s led the way, to National Socialism). CCP need somewhere to throw the excess passionarity. War or nationalist shifted attention to the external enemy - the best way out for today.
The second factor: the Chinese are tired of the monstrous capitalist super-exploitation, of unrelieved hard labor for a pittance and without any social security. Born dangerous cognitive dissonance: the Chinese operate in a capitalist and brutally - but under the red flag, and the communist rhetoric. No wonder the Chinese began to build the people's dissatisfaction rate PDA, born neomaoistskoe movement for the revival of socialist ideals, and the leader of it, Bo Xilai's Chongqing, had to literally bring down. Otherwise, it could take over and cut zazhirevshuyu party leadership. For people tired partverhushki enrichment, corruption and outright theft (in the U.S. for funneling governors of Chinese provinces, taking the loot).
CCP elite too late to shift the orientation of production for export (in the West, using the extreme cheapness rabsily) on the development of the internal market and the welfare of the Chinese themselves. The development of the global crisis does not give time to maneuver, the economic downturn in China is inevitable due to external causes.
That's why I need - so China is covered with lights local riots and strikes - to translate mass discontent against Japanese track.
Finally, we need somewhere to channel discontent richly-security class, the people in China since 1978. And he does not like PDA and requires participation in the government.
Add it all up - and get a picture of the war, it is necessary for the present Chinese leadership. Personally, I believe that the expansion will be directed to the North, on the ground zapustevayuschie Russian Siberia. Japan, however, was a better option for PDAs. And who knows whether the current hold out anti-Japanese campaign in the only promotional or street protest is not going to the phase of the armed conflict? For war is necessary to maintain the CCP authorities. And the sharper the global crisis - the more likely the beginning of a hot conflict in the Pacific.
 
SHADOW YAMAMOTO
Parallel and the Japanese ruling elite has got his cheerful country to a standstill - and it is also beneficial war hysteria.
In 1991, the Japanese for their stupidity plunged the country into crisis and then - to a standstill, continue today. For too long, Japan copied someone else's success, not trying to create its own development model. That's why I blew, and then completely withdraw its industry began to poor countries. All attempts to Japan's "political elite" to find a way (a program the "New Frontier", control dreams, production is economically unviable robots clear breakdown of the collective psyche of Japanese symbol on their manga-anime) does not lead to anything sensible. Events in 2011 (tsunami and Fukushima), suicidal decision to curtail nuclear energy (instead of creating a new pritsipialno, secure its variants) have exacerbated the crisis.
Now the Japanese establishment to benefit at least war hysteria, as the maximum - the war. And in the war at sea, Japan has a good chance to defeat the Chinese.
The Japanese Navy has more than 250 warships and auxiliary ships and boats, including - 20 diesel submarines, 45 destroyers, six frigates, eight landing ships, 30 minesweepers, three missile boats, three patrol boats, five landing craft, 114 auxiliary ships and boats.
Fleet - a brand. Most of the ships were built in the 1990s.
Destroyer-helicopter (light carrier) - 1
Destroyers-vetroletonostsy - 4
Guided missile destroyers - 8
Destroyers - 32
Frigates - 6
Submarines (20) There are three types of diesel submarines. Modern submarines are like "Kharusi" (to come into service with the Navy in 1987 - 7 units), armed with anti-ship missiles (ASM) "Harpoon".
Even more new - Submarine "Oyashio" (11 units), built in 1994. Silent, with 20 knots Submerged speed, it is able to shoot from six bow torpedo tubes (533 mm) torpedoes or missiles "Sub-Harpoon."
There are two types of boats "Soryu" - with Stirling engines. That is - the extended range diving.
Most destroyers equipped with anti-submarine helicopters and anti-missile defense systems with the "Harpoon" from the U.S..
In all destroyers are anti missile systems (PLRK) "Asrok" various modifications and medium-range air defense system, "Standard" or "Sea Sparrow", which are made in Japan by American license. URO considered modern destroyers of the "Congo" (4 counts), armed with anti-ship missiles, "Harpoon", PLRK "Asrok" SAM "Standard" and anti-submarine helicopter. (Two OHR [Mark 41 (90 cells: SAM-2 standard and PLUR ASROC), eight anti-ship missiles, "Harpoon", one 127-mm AC and two six-barreled 20-mm automatic "Volcano-Falanks" trehtrubnyh two 324-mm torpedo tubes PLO, one helicopter). These ships osnasheny U.S. missile system "Aegis" (Aegis), and capable of shooting down cruise missiles and aerial targets.
The Japanese have a light carrier (destroyer-helicopter) types of "Hugo". In construction - another. If desired, they can be fitted with vertical takeoff of the "Harrier".
Of the frigates serious opponents: type "Abukuma" (2050 tons standard displacement, equipped with anti-ship missiles, "Harpoon" and PLRK "Asrok"). Since 1990, six such built frigates.
It is noteworthy that most of the Japanese Navy was built after the destruction of the Soviet Union (the Japanese clearly prepared to grab land from poor RF) and thus qualitatively superior Russian Pacific Fleet ships, built mostly in the 1980s. Now they can fight with the fleet of China.
Amphibious ships are streamers like "Osumi" (330 Marines and ten tanks), tank landing "Miura" (three units, 200 infantry and ten tanks), "Atsumi" (two units, 130 and five tanks), small landing types of ships "Jura" (two units) and "Yusotei" (two units, both types desantovmestimost 70 infantry). Japanese they are able to be able to transfer up to a brigade of the Army. If we bring to business and civilian fleet - then a little more.
Navy have their own aircraft - about 200 aircraft.
We emphasize that in the composition of her - 99 type aircraft "Orion", capable of fighting and submarines, cruise missiles and strike surface ships. They can be considered "flying frigates." These four-engine turboprop capable of cruise ships in the sky up to 14 hours. Within them - the most sensitive equipment to detect submarines. In the combat compartment and externally at the P-3 "Orion" may be depth bombs (conventional and nuclear) and eight self-guided anti-submarine torpedoes. In this case a flying cruiser can carry more and antiship cruise missiles, "Harpoon".
(More information about the capabilities of Japan - http://m-kalashnikov.livejournal.com/757937.html).
Given the strong naval traditions of Japan (shadow administrative Rahl Isoroku Yamamoto), China can not win the battle for the island. Does he dare to use nuclear weapons against the Japanese cities? Question! But the Japanese are clearly will shape the creation of a nuclear-missile weapons.
 
Unpleasant PARALLEL
By the way, if the war between Japan and China over the islands takes place, it is for the Russian do no good. Regardless of who wins, the next target for the winner, we can become. Repeat of 1895-1904 years, when the then Japan defeated China, then collapsed on the Russian empire decayed and caused her ignominious defeat.
In the case of a new war, it was the winner can look into rotten weak RF (on the once strong TOFe in service were only five surface ships 1st wound, no aircraft carriers). Japanese nuzhnv Kurils and Sakhalin, the Chinese - Primorye and Vostochsnaya Siberia.
 
FOCI EVERYWHERE
Meanwhile, it is - is not the only source of war on the globe. Personally, I anxiously look at Egypt.
Judge for yourself: who came to power in Egypt, Islamic guys can not bring the Egyptians to a normal life, to save them from poverty and unemployment. Although they enter the sharia square! The population is growing by leaps and bounds, a frail economy, tourism revenues, obviously disappear. How to avoid discontent? Need war. But to whom?
Glom on Israel? On narrow roads Sinai? Jews in the dust crush upcoming columns nasty Egyptian army from the air. Yes, they have nuclear weapons. All end humiliating defeat Egyptians.
But to the east of Egypt - Libya. Virtually collapsed. With a population kstupayuschim Egypt seven times. And there is something that is so necessary to Egypt - oil and gas. Sources of money that can save Egypt and the power of the Islamists. Of cheap fuel to maintain internal stability overpopulated Egypt.
I'm afraid that the new Egyptian leaders may be tempted to take one blow fractured Libya and prigresti hands on its oil fields. They are - just to the west of Libya. In an atmosphere of increasing difficulty West Egyptians may well go for that option. While Libya - in discord.
 
WAR have too much
And then - on the list. A possible war between the West and Iran (without a ground invasion, only by heckling him in the air energy, pipelines and the blockade of ports through which it exported oil). Already running the war in AfPak. The war in Syria. Germs of civil wars in the "Arab Spring."
Moving on? Emerging secession of Scotland and Catalonia, the collapse of Belgium - Europe. With quite likely Spain and the UK attempts to suppress separatist force. The emerging collapse of Belgium. Extremely painful exit from the euro area of ​​Greece. Potentsialnoy Turkish-Greek conflict. Oh, yes, obstanovochka!
But after all, the United States also need a war - in order to cover the bankruptcy of its own elite. The policy of "quantitative easing" (start the printing press) came to a standstill, the national debt swells, interests ruin the budget, economic growth, no, because there is no new economic model. Possible radical steps have been identified (see Dambis Moyo, "How the West was lost," U.S. bestseller in 2010). There - a proposal to declare a default of America and quickly create a new self-sufficient "empire" of the United States, Canada and parts of Meskiki (half a billion people). True, it will lead the world to the monstrous economic disaster, you want something to cover up and divert attention. (However, as the attention of American citizens themselves, of which awaits the difficult transition to a new reality.)
What do you need? Great War. Or a series of wars everywhere.
Need it and in the form, if the U.S. national debt will depreciate by shock devaluation of the dollar. (This, by the way, should at the same time dropping value of the U.S. labor force, and again make profitable production in America. Course - the cost of the global economic meltdown). It is best to conduct this transition to mute world military chaos. (By the way, Moyo writes directly in the book on how to positively impact on the Russian default in 1998 and the devaluation of the ruble to strengthen the real sector in Russian. Mol, and what would the United States not to make such a trick?)
So the rights of Andrew Fursov today expire last relatively peaceful days. War is extremely profitable global elite anyway bankrupt, and zavorovavshimsya zavedshim their countries in a variety of dead-ends.
And if war is profitable so many powers that be - they break out. Sooner rather than later.
Калашников Максим 20.09.2012
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Last edited by blackpower; 20th September 2012 at 06:43 PM..
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Old 21st September 2012, 06:48 AM
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Re: War, anybody?

If you really think that resource rich Brazil is going to supply the US with its resources below the market rate, then you are clearly talking out of your ass. Brazil currently has fewer reasons to hate China than it does the US.

Pitful Destiny?

Romney is your best hope? I would would personally place more faith in Joe Stalin.

The truth is that you are going to re-elect Obama, and within four years most people will look up on the dollar as cheap way of keeping their ass clean.
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Old 21st September 2012, 09:26 AM
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Re: War, anybody?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck View Post
If you really think that resource rich Brazil is going to supply the US with its resources below the market rate, then you are clearly talking out of your ass. Brazil currently has fewer reasons to hate China than it does the US.

Pitful Destiny?

Romney is your best hope? I would would personally place more faith in Joe Stalin.

The truth is that you are going to re-elect Obama, and within four years most people will look up on the dollar as cheap way of keeping their ass clean.
No, I don't think she will. Brazilians do not hate us, m.b. certain percentage does as in any country that envy US and blame Americans for own inability to build a decent life.
What I mean is that it makes a lot of sense to build a common market out of both Americas. It does not have to be built on expoitation. But in case of a global turmoil this market can exist independently and it's big enough to be self-sufficient. It's far enough to be secure.
Of course, it's a difficult decision to drop former allies in Europe butagain, they are becoming a liability. This is not going to happen tomorrow but surely this option is being discussed for a while now
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Old 21st September 2012, 10:57 AM
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Re: War, anybody?

America without trade relations with China, Europe and Arabia would have to change their national anthem: America, land of the Amish.
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Old 21st September 2012, 10:30 PM
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Re: War, anybody?

Sure, but did anyone mention it to the Brazilians?

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackpower View Post
No, I don't think she will. Brazilians do not hate us, m.b. certain percentage does as in any country that envy US and blame Americans for own inability to build a decent life.
What I mean is that it makes a lot of sense to build a common market out of both Americas. It does not have to be built on expoitation. But in case of a global turmoil this market can exist independently and it's big enough to be self-sufficient. It's far enough to be secure.
Of course, it's a difficult decision to drop former allies in Europe butagain, they are becoming a liability. This is not going to happen tomorrow but surely this option is being discussed for a while now
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Old 22nd September 2012, 09:47 AM
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Re: War, anybody?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck View Post
Sure, but did anyone mention it to the Brazilians?
Brazil will not have much choice in case of big war in Middle East/Europe or Asia.
USA for Brazil is a natural market (and vice-versa). If you doubt it, just look at the world map. Brazilians are now buying more Real Estate in Miami than any other group. This market is not only natural but also is not subject to political turmoils. This was why I chose to concentrate on Portuguese domains in the first place.
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Old 22nd September 2012, 04:01 PM
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Re: War, anybody?

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackpower View Post
Brazil will not have much choice in case of big war in Middle East/Europe or Asia.
USA for Brazil is a natural market (and vice-versa). If you doubt it, just look at the world map. Brazilians are now buying more Real Estate in Miami than any other group. This market is not only natural but also is not subject to political turmoils. This was why I chose to concentrate on Portuguese domains in the first place.
Kind of suggests to me that the economic momentum is with Brazil, rather than the US.

And that is largely down to their trade with China.

Yanks simply have no concept of financial reality.
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Old 22nd September 2012, 10:54 PM
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Re: War, anybody?

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackpower View Post
...
The world after the dismemberment of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the capitalist-neoliberal experiment ran to the era of numerous conflicts merged.
Gentlemen, welcome to the years of redistribution of the already divided world! The shadow of Lenin and Stalin smile. Prevent global transition to the stage of the Great Recession world turmoil is impossible.
...
Калашников Максим 20.09.2012
I don't agree with this analysis. The author (ironically named Kalashnikov, like the weapon) has been watching too much RT.

RT (the well-known Russian TV network) has one primary task: keep Vladimir Putin in power. To do this, they show stories whose purpose is to convince viewers of the following:
  • Western-style electoral democracy leads to chaos, in developed and developing nations;
  • Western-style economic policies lead to disaster;
  • Russia is surrounded by unfriendly countries;
  • Russia faces internal threats, including Western-financed dissidents and Chechen terrorists;
  • Russia needs a firm hand on the tiller, and Vladimir Putin is the man to provide this.
Chinese media show similar stories, for a similar purpose; only the names are different.

The trouble with watching RT exclusively is that it causes the viewer to make incorrect predictions, due to incomplete and incorrect information. So here are my counter-predictions, based of course on the non-RT media I watch, which perhaps have their own biases:
  • The richest areas of the globe (including US/Canada, Europe, and Japan) will, despite the recession, remain rich.
  • Though the Euro zone may shrink, the European Union will remain intact.
  • The UK, Spain, and Belgium (!) will not descend into civil war and ethnic cleansing.
  • China will not invade Russian Siberia.
  • The current China-Japan dispute will not turn into a full-fledged war.
  • The US will not disengage from Europe and Asia (though I realize that there are some Europeans and Asians who wish that it would).
I'm going to avoid any predictions about the Middle East. The long-term future of China is somewhat worrisome, as the leaders of China would themselves admit (big country, poor country, the potential for chaos lurking beneath the surface). And the long-term future of Russia depends on whether it can find a better system of government than Putinism.

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Old 23rd September 2012, 02:19 AM
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Re: War, anybody?

Good analysis. Politicians need to fear the people.
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