.see vs .china vs IDN.com vs IDN.cn

[123]

What extension will be the most popular in your opinion?

Are you investing in chinese names for the potential future traffic or the value of the brand, or both?

Since domain values are often tied to the value of type-in traffic knowing what people will type is crucial. Investing in .net instead of .com wouldn't have been a wise choice 15 years ago.

In 10 or 15 years from now what will a chinese looking for the word "Car" type-in?

Car.com
Car.cn
car.china
car.see
car.website

My personal guess is that experience so far shows that the established extensions remain the most popular and new extensions have a hard time getting established so things will just remain they way they are i would say.

The brief domain history also shows that ccTLDs are very strong in many countries usually stronger than .com

The whole IDN thing has caused a lot of confusion which isn't helping investors i think.

Personally like most here I will stick to .com as investing in .cn or .china has a lot of other risks and is less convenient. I just wonder how much .china could threaten .see and .com and what role IDN.cn could play in the future.

I think .see is a weaker brand than .china for obvious reasons and both will start from zero. Every chinese knows what "china" is and got exposed to the word countless times while .see is a fantasy creation from my understanding.

What do you think?

[IDN.IDN]

IDN.china and IDN.com will be the likely winners. .ClickSee (IDN version of .com VeriSign applied for) will have some difficulties since people will not connect that with .com. It will have to start as a completely new TLD and compete with other new ones.

There is a possibility that VeriSign will separate .com and .ClickSee following what cnnic has done for .cn and .china.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by IDN.IDN

IDN.china and IDN.com will be the likely winners. .ClickSee (IDN version of .com VeriSign applied for) will have some difficulties since people will not connect that with .com. It will have to start as a completely new TLD and compete with other new ones.

There is a possibility that VeriSign will separate .com and .ClickSee following what cnnic has done for .cn and .china.

So basically Verisign have screwed up big time or you don't know what you are talking about? Hmm..... Interesting call.

Either way it seems IDN.com owners are big winners and if in the unlikely event that Verisign are allowed to separate their New gTLD IDN and actually choose to do so, then they are virtually guaranteeing it will fail. Perhaps on reflection not a very likely scenario do you think?

[squirrel]

VRSN also has plans to transition to a single character IDN TLD for the chinese and korean market. On a 10-15 year horizon you should factor that in.

[IDN.IDN]

Originally Posted by squirrel

VRSN also has plans to transition to a single character IDN TLD for the chinese and korean market. On a 10-15 year horizon you should factor that in.

That will be too late. Even VRSN gets .see, it may not even beat its own .clicksee. The single character new TLD is just another new TLD. Single character is not that advantageous as you may think. Do you think .co will replace .com?

[IDN.IDN]

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

So basically Verisign have screwed up big time or you don't know what you are talking about? Hmm..... Interesting call.

Either way it seems IDN.com owners are big winners and if in the unlikely event that Verisign are allowed to separate their New gTLD IDN and actually choose to do so, then they are virtually guaranteeing it will fail. Perhaps on reflection not a very likely scenario do you think?

People will go and register IDN.com, not IDN.clicksee, although they may realize that these are the same thing when they register. They will advertise IDN.com, not IDN.clicksee. VRSN needs to have a Chinese TLD to map with their .com, but it is eventually .com that wins their customers, not .clickSee.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by IDN.IDN

People will go and register IDN.com, not IDN.clicksee, although they may realize that these are the same thing when they register. They will advertise IDN.com, not IDN.clicksee. VRSN needs to have a Chinese TLD to map with their .com, but it is eventually .com that wins their customers, not .clickSee.

I can live with that. I have always said that IDN.com is better than IDN.IDN in Chinese.

Embed an IDN.IDN in a paragraph of Chinese text. Can you really see it?

Try the same with IDN.com. It may stick out like a sore thumb but it is instantly recognisable as Domain Name.

I think you will also find that completing the typing in of an IDN.com as opposed to an IDN.IDN is actually easier. Perhaps no big deal, but it never was a deal breaker.

The only thing that has really hampered IDN.com is some clarity on what the f*ck was going down. Such clarity has always been distinctly lacking. It still is. But by the end of next week the picture should be one hell of lot clearer.

[squirrel]

Originally Posted by IDN.IDN

That will be too late. Even VRSN gets .see, it may not even beat its own .clicksee. The single character new TLD is just another new TLD. Single character is not that advantageous as you may think. Do you think .co will replace .com?

No I don't think .co will replace .com.

However, VRSN plans are to replace clicksee with a single character that sounds closely to "com", so in effect it will be "com" replacing "clicksee" , in that case I think it's an improvement.

[squirrel]

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

I can live with that. I have always said that IDN.com is better than IDN.IDN in Chinese.

Embed an IDN.IDN in a paragraph of Chinese text. Can you really see it?

Try the same with IDN.com. It may stick out like a sore thumb but it is instantly recognisable as Domain Name.

good point

[IDN.IDN]

Originally Posted by squirrel

However, VRSN plans are to replace clicksee with a single character that sounds closely to "com", so in effect it will be "com" replacing "clicksee" , in that case I think it's an improvement.

I do not know any single Chinese character that sounds closely to com. You need two characters to transliterate com. Where did you see that VRSN plan, btw?

[domainguru]

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

I can live with that. I have always said that IDN.com is better than IDN.IDN in Chinese.

Embed an IDN.IDN in a paragraph of Chinese text. Can you really see it?

That's a good point. The ".com" really makes the domain stick out. But extend that logic to English language pages, and it says:

".com" shouldn't be in English, but some foreign language to make it stand out.

Of course the solution is a lot simpler and doesn't involve people abandoning IDN.IDN because they don't "stick out". If its a domain name, it should be turned into a clickable link by the app/browser, and hence it will "stick out" naturally.

I agree China is a special case though because of its size and competing interests. The dust will probably settle in about 20 years, and then application writers will know what is a domain name and what isn't.

[Jay]

Originally Posted by IDN.IDN

IDN.china and IDN.com will be the likely winners. .ClickSee (IDN version of .com VeriSign applied for) will have some difficulties since people will not connect that with .com. It will have to start as a completely new TLD and compete with other new ones.

I think ccTLDs are going to be very strong for sure.

One thing though is that while the .com translits (.clicksee in China's case) will be new, they should have greater momentum than other gTLDs if owners are allowed to forward their .coms to the translits (and I hope in this respect that Verisign don't implement a blocking system that prevents this).

The ideal arrangement from a developers' point of view I think is to be forwarding the (mostly autocomplete) traffic from .com to their .clicksee website, and using a dual marketing approach that advertises both versions together (.com for brandability and .clicksee for usability). The association of .clicksee with .com should take root over time, but it will be led by end user marketing and development which won't happen overnight.

[123]

The ideal arrangement from a developers' point of view I think is to be forwarding the (mostly autocomplete) traffic from .com to their .clicksee website, and using a dual marketing approach that advertises both versions together (.com for brandability and .clicksee for usability). The association of .clicksee with .com should take root over time, but it will be led by end user marketing and development which won't happen overnight.

this is where i am sceptical. I think most developers wouldn't do the forwarding thing. Why would they? Only because .see is the "legitimate" .com in china and the other is not? forwarding would cause visitor confusion in my opinion and therefore wouldn't be attractive for a developers point of view.

and why is .see more usable? I am not sure how a chinese keyboard works but is typing .com really more complicated than typing .see even for a chinese?

[welkin]

Originally Posted by 123

this is where i am sceptical. I think most developers wouldn't do the forwarding thing. Why would they? Only because .see is the "legitimate" .com in china and the other is not? forwarding would cause visitor confusion in my opinion and therefore wouldn't be attractive for a developers point of view.

and why is .see more usable? I am not sure how a chinese keyboard works but is typing .com really more complicated than typing .see even for a chinese?

.com and .看 are the same. .点看 is more effort.

If the transition happens top-down (and it might not), whatever taobao, baidu, renren, etc. end up using is what everyone else will want. If taobao goes .com, baidu .点看, and renren .中国, it might get a little complicated.

The best hope I see for the other new gTLDs would be to make deals with some of the larger companies to use their gTLD, along with an advertising campaign and dirt-cheap pricing. But its difficult to imagine even then that many would really become popular.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by welkin

.com and .看 are the same. .点看 is more effort.

If the transition happens top-down (and it might not), whatever taobao, baidu, renren, etc. end up using is what everyone else will want. If taobao goes .com, baidu .点看, and renren .中国, it might get a little complicated.

The best hope I see for the other new gTLDs would be to make deals with some of the larger companies to use their gTLD, along with an advertising campaign and dirt-cheap pricing. But its difficult to imagine even then that many would really become popular.

Why would dirt cheap pricing attract a larger company, and how much advertising impact can these tinpot companies have. Remember ICANNs Global Awareness Compaign?

[Jay]

Originally Posted by 123

this is where i am sceptical. I think most developers wouldn't do the forwarding thing. Why would they? Only because .see is the "legitimate" .com in china and the other is not? forwarding would cause visitor confusion in my opinion and therefore wouldn't be attractive for a developers point of view.

and why is .see more usable? I am not sure how a chinese keyboard works but is typing .com really more complicated than typing .see even for a chinese?

I presume that typing the extension in Chinese characters would be more instinctive, because users will be familiar with typing in Chinese more than English (for most Chinese anyway). How would you instruct a Chinese user not familiar with English to type in .com if they didn't know how already?

Mind you, can it get any easier than hitting '.com' on your iPhone with a single push? Also, is typing the way of the future anyway? So if .clicksee is a monumental failure and .com is what we must live with, it won't bother me all that much.

[123]

If the transition happens top-down (and it might not), whatever taobao, baidu, renren, etc. end up using is what everyone else will want. If taobao goes .com, baidu .点看, and renren .中国, it might get a little complicated.

if taobao, baidu start using .see that could lead to a major change and everyone will probably want to use .see but how likely is that scenario?

is think it is more likely at least short-term that they will eventually give users the option to access the page under baidu.see but will not force redirects.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by Jay

I presume that typing the extension in Chinese characters would be more instinctive, because users will be familiar with typing in Chinese more than English (for most Chinese anyway). How would you instruct a Chinese user not familiar with English to type in .com if they didn't know how already?

Mind you, can it get any easier than hitting '.com' on your iPhone with a single push? Also, is typing the way of the future anyway? So if .clicksee is a monumental failure and .com is what we must live with, it won't bother me all that much.

It has been established that most Chinese actually type Latin characters to get the Glyphs so it is difficult to understand where you are coming from.

If Verisign had done their homework, which is probably wishful thinking they would have chosen the prompted conversion characters when you input COM. Whether or not they have, I have no idea.

[welkin]

Originally Posted by Rubber Duck

Why would dirt cheap pricing attract a larger company, and how much advertising impact can these tinpot companies have. Remember ICANNs Global Awareness Compaign?

If I had the guanxi to get some large companies to use my gTLD (and use it in their advertising) in order to give it legitimacy, and also made the pricing affordable enough for everyone...maybe this would be enough to get my new gTLD to reach critical mass, maybe not. What do you think?

Originally Posted by Jay

I presume that typing the extension in Chinese characters would be more instinctive, because users will be familiar with typing in Chinese more than English (for most Chinese anyway). How would you instruct a Chinese user not familiar with English to type in .com if they didn't know how already?

Chinese type in pinyin (Roman alphabet) which are then converted into characters. But when you type .com in pinyin, the result is also just .com. Perhaps this will change to be a shortcut for .点看 in the future, who knows.

[123]

If I had the guanxi to get some large companies to use my gTLD (and use it in their advertising) in order to give it legitimacy

not sure how much money you would have to pay to convince a large company to use a money burning extension in advertising. and then to really make a difference you would have to get many on board not just a few.

a weak extension will dramatically reduce advertising ROI, it just sucks as the o.co or nissan.com cases show.

i think it would be too costly make an extension wildly popular that way.