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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 4th December 2014, 02:19 PM
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Was Duck wrong?

I predicted that Chinese GDP would out grow US before 2020 rather than 2050 as Goldman Sachs and Co were predicting.

Was I wrong. Some say it has already happened.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its...o-2-2014-12-04

Well, no I was expecting it to happen in Dollar terms rather than PPP, but hey the only difference is Exchange Rate which is a pretty arbituary concept and frankly could change in the blink of an eye.

The only thing between the US and China is the concept of an International Reserve Currency which frankly is more of a head ache than an asset. Once the International community starts to dump dollars which is rather inevitable, then China really is the No.1. Could happen this year, might happen in the next Presidency, but it will happen.

And what exactly is everyone to do with all that unbound arse wipe?
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Old 4th December 2014, 05:21 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

shame you weren't right about IDNs. By all accounts it's a massive waste of time & money.
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Old 4th December 2014, 07:50 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

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Originally Posted by alpha View Post
shame you weren't right about IDNs. By all accounts it's a massive waste of time & money.
Yeah! Silly me thinking that ICANN would eventually achieve something worthwhile. As it stands all notable achievements in the domain space predate them. Who would have bet on them cocking everything interminably?
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Last edited by Rubber Duck; 4th December 2014 at 07:52 PM..
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Old 5th December 2014, 02:40 AM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

and this writer (link below) ends he article with this idealistic summary....

"And we have lived for 200 years — since the Battle of Waterloo in 1815 — in a world dominated by two reasonably democratic, constitutional countries in Great Britain and the U.S.A. For all their flaws, the two countries have been in the vanguard worldwide in terms of civil liberties, democratic processes and constitutional rights".

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/offici...150936444.html

Last edited by bwhhisc; 5th December 2014 at 02:45 AM..
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Old 5th December 2014, 11:34 AM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

a better measure, a more important one, is GDP per capita. China GDP will outgrow US, matter of time (though everyone also knows Chinese currency is seriously overvalued, so big question there as well). Soviet Union had big GDP and great growth at times and only to crumble like house of cards at the end since it was unsustainble given "fake" investrment led growth. Sounds familiar? Yes - China. So unless they meaningfully make the switch from investments into consumer driven economy, i have my serious doubts about how viable the growth is. But look - they have tons of resources and history shows you the party can go on for some time.
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Old 5th December 2014, 01:34 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

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Originally Posted by Emil View Post
a better measure, a more important one, is GDP per capita. China GDP will outgrow US, matter of time (though everyone also knows Chinese currency is seriously overvalued, so big question there as well). Soviet Union had big GDP and great growth at times and only to crumble like house of cards at the end since it was unsustainble given "fake" investrment led growth. Sounds familiar? Yes - China. So unless they meaningfully make the switch from investments into consumer driven economy, i have my serious doubts about how viable the growth is. But look - they have tons of resources and history shows you the party can go on for some time.
Confused!!!

I assume you are talking about currency valuations against US Dollar.

Balance of trade is generally best measure of whether or not a currency is overvalued.

Are you trying to claim that America now has a price advantage when exporting to China?

Fucking news to me if you are!

As for not being Consumer driven, I think you will find that just about every consumer on the globe is beating a path to China.

Have you got the foggiest idea what you are talking about?
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Old 5th December 2014, 02:17 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

if you are confused it doesnt mean i dont know what i am talking about and/or i am wrong. So bring down your attitude here pally.
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Old 5th December 2014, 03:34 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

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if you are confused it doesnt mean i dont know what i am talking about and/or i am wrong. So bring down your attitude here pally.
I'll take that as a No, then!
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Old 6th December 2014, 05:09 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

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shame you weren't right about IDNs. By all accounts it's a massive waste of time & money.
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Old 6th December 2014, 05:32 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

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shame you weren't right about IDNs. By all accounts it's a massive waste of time & money.
So is the party really over? So is our phoenix officially dead with no hope from rising from behind the line and under the bus episode? I thought the judgement day is still the end of this year?

Last edited by TrafficDomainer; 6th December 2014 at 05:34 PM..
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Old 6th December 2014, 06:17 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

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Originally Posted by TrafficDomainer View Post
So is the party really over? So is our phoenix officially dead with no hope from rising from behind the line and under the bus episode? I thought the judgement day is still the end of this year?
The party was over for many that got in during the 'testbed" in 2000 and 2001, who dumped names in 2003....then sprung back to life with new players in 2006. Some got out over the last year or two, including TDC who dumped massive amounts of medium and low quality names, but seem to have held their A list stuff. Now others seem ready to throw in the towel, and others not sure what to do.

But seems that very few are dumping or selling A .com list names cheaply....so go figure. A year ago there was about 1 million IDNs registered, anyone know that number today?

Last edited by bwhhisc; 6th December 2014 at 07:47 PM..
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Old 6th December 2014, 08:44 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

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Originally Posted by bwhhisc View Post

But seems that very few are dumping or selling A .com list names cheaply....so go figure.
That's kind of irrelevant at this point. Of course we are all going to keep our best versus selling them cheaply. If your racehorse shows very little potential you still let him run the race instead of shooting him.

Still slightly better than a lottery ticket I guess...
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Old 6th December 2014, 11:14 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

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Originally Posted by bwhhisc View Post
The party was over for many that got in during the 'testbed" in 2000 and 2001, who dumped names in 2003....then sprung back to life with new players in 2006. Some got out over the last year or two, including TDC who dumped massive amounts of medium and low quality names, but seem to have held their A list stuff. Now others seem ready to throw in the towel, and others not sure what to do.

But seems that very few are dumping or selling A .com list names cheaply....so go figure. A year ago there was about 1 million IDNs registered, anyone know that number today?
Thanks Bill. What I am wondering is aren't we still waiting to hear whether the aliasing plan from Verisign will get ICANN's approval by the end of the year?
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Old 6th December 2014, 11:34 PM
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Re: Was Duck wrong?

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Originally Posted by TrafficDomainer View Post
Thanks Bill. What I am wondering is aren't we still waiting to hear whether the aliasing plan from Verisign will get ICANN's approval by the end of the year?
ICANN committees, and the various governmental agencies and business/ commerce organizations did not want to give Verisign a pass on their long standing plan as submitted. So they are hashing out the details and we don't get to know much until its all done, that timing is uncertain by hopefully sooner than later. For my 2c renew your good names and check back in 6 months.
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