.jp vs .com Japanese IDNs

[idnowner]

Anyone have ideas on how good a Japanese .com IDN is (or will be), as compared with a .jp IDN.  Think a .com would be 10% as valuable, 20%, or better?

[gammascalper]

Originally Posted by idnowner

Anyone have ideas on how good a Japanese .com IDN is (or will be), as compared with a .jp IDN. Think a .com would be 10% as valuable, 20%, or better?

I think this is impossible to predict. I have both and I do not discern a difference at this stage.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by idnowner

Anyone have ideas on how good a Japanese .com IDN is (or will be), as compared with a .jp IDN. Think a .com would be 10% as valuable, 20%, or better?

Nobody knows exactly what domains are worth, it is all down to the motivation of the buyer or seller.

Nobody really knows how much IDN are worth or indeed whether they are actually worth anything. Opinions vary from nothing to 7 figures. This situation will not change until IE 7.0 is adopted and the levels of traffic and the advantages in terms of SEO become apparent.

It is therefore fairly meaningless to try to differentiate between gTLD and ccTLD in terms of resale price in percentage terms.

What we do know is that ccTLD are generally very expensive to buy and renew, which makes them higher risk and means that your return on investment is likely to be lower. This in turn makes them less attractive, which in turn will lower the resale value.

ccTLDs are market specific so they are sought after for this very reason. The traditional perception is that to market to China you need dot cn and to Japan dot jp. This is probably why dot de goes for such a premium.

IDN to some extent will change all that, as they have the power to market locally even with a Global Extension. They do not, however, target countries but linguistic groups. With Japan and China things are fairly clear cut. Japanese is spoken in Japan and almost nowhere else and Simplified Chinese is used almost exclusively in PRC. However, things are not clear cut. We are not talking volumes of literature here and often text fragments in the same script will infer meaning in different language.

Elsewhere thing get more complicated. As yet there is no Pan Arabic ccTLD. Whilst some are lobbying hard for this Political control over such a domain is fraught with problems. Arabic is main language in about 25 states with minority useage elsewhere. The script is also shared with Farsi and Urdu, so single characters and other common text fragments with apply to all. No ccTLD gives you the power of an IDN dot in the Arabic Market, but here it would seem the differential in acceptance between dot com and dot net is less distinct.

Urdu is another complicated situation in its own right. It is the official language of Pakistan but only spoken by 8% of the population. It is in fact a dialect of Hindi written in Arabic script, and it has many more users in India than Pakistan. Use of ccTLD in this case could be a distinct disadvantage, wheras IDN very specifically targets a culturally homogenius grouping. Of course like many, you may assume that the language of India is English. You would be wrong, only 3% of the population are considered comfortable in English.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

[bwhhisc]

Commenting on Dave's quote:
"Nobody really knows how much IDN are worth or indeed whether they are actually worth anything. Opinions vary from nothing to 7 figures."

I think the marketing addage: FIND THE GREATEST NEED AND FILL IT- applies without exception to IDN's. This system was created to fill a need of millions of people, giving them access to the internet in unprecidented ways. Of course, the capitalists will jump on board to sell their products back to this market.

IDN have value...it is just unknown and unpredictable to what level.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by bwhhisc

Commenting on Dave's quote:
"Nobody really knows how much IDN are worth or indeed whether they are actually worth anything. Opinions vary from nothing to 7 figures."

I think the marketing addage: FIND THE GREATEST NEED AND FILL IT- applies without exception to IDN's. This system was created to fill a need of millions of people, giving them access to the internet in unprecidented ways. Of course, the capitalists will jump on board to sell their products back to this market.

IDN have value...it is just unknown and unpredictable to what level.

Well, I have put an appraisal value on one today for 6 figures. I tried to buy this one ages ago, just couldn't find a sensible translation that I had any confidence in.

When I say it just opinion, that is clear until there is the formation of a broader market. At the moment it just so many speculators talking, with a small amount of money changing hands. You could argue that is start of a market, but it could also be presented as a few deluded individuals. Those individuals have, however, grown quite a lot recently and now include some shrewd and established players from the conventional domain market. There has been a very significant shift in attitudes in the last few weeks.

If IDN do not take off and eventually take some 50% or more or the global market, then I will go my grave muttering, " I don't understand". People have been slow to understand. Others feel that they have a vested interest in seeing the market fail and Microsoft has been totally wrong footed on this one. However, in my simple mind it is simply a question of, as you rightly say, of filling a gapping need in the only way in which it can be filled. A measure of the massive extent of this need is the fact that the Chinese and ICANN are still talking at all. If this was not too important to contemplate failure they would almost certainly have told one another to sling their hooks year ago!

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

[bwhhisc]

There is no doubt that this is ALL going to happen. There is too much marketing potential to stop the IDN's ability to reach every level of consumer in thier own language, and in terms of their own needs.

With the annuouncement of $100 computers in development- (announced on CNN recently) computers and internet access will be in far reaching places, even if just one in the local cafe accessable to locals. Heck, even if I sold sheep or blankets, I would sure like to know what they are going for in other markets!

[rhys]

My issue with IDN .com vs .jp valuation is not with which is greater, i personally favor .jp for some reasons i'm still mulling over in my head. Rather, I am concerned about how valuations are related to natural traffic and whether or not we will see natural traffic as we do in english language .com

talking to dave at fabulous.com at icann vancouver and he suggested up to 15% of user search activity happens on the url bar. others have mentioned this to me as well. i personally think that is high, i would believe probably between 5%-10%. The question is will this natural search behavior occur with the indigenous populations of china and japan once the means to use their respective languages is given to them? if someone can do a poll of japanese mac users to find out roughly how often they type what they are looking for in the form of a url, that would be valuable. any such estimate is naturally going to be lower than the potential future number because the network effect is obviously going to be important to reinforce the behavior. that is, the more active IDN domains there are providing the relevant results, the more it pays to continue that behavior.

my other concern is whether or not japanese users specifically will click links as opposed to relying on search engine results to go to sites. let's face it if users don't get into the habit of clicking on the links on our domains, we'll all have to make a living on cpm and that only works for insiders and a few of us who got in very early. i wouldn't worry about this normally but i believe that verisign in one or their recent asia user surveys identified hesitancy to trust links over search engine results as an issue in the japan market. perhaps i misread that, hope so, but don't think so.

thoughts? especially from other insiders in the japanese/chinese markets?

[idnowner]

Originally Posted by rhys

My issue ... and whether or not we will see natural traffic as we do in english language .com

If and when IDNs become popular, I believe some people and companies will brand generic names, just as Americans have done, since they are simple and easy to remember. Once new users get use to generic IDN.coms (and .jps), they are likely to try other random choices - and since, it appears all of the major keywords are getting registered, a huge number of these names (with PPC or other content) will be resolving, or re-directing to other relevant sites (in the weeks and months ahead), reinforcing the use of keyword searches into the address bar. Check out this IDN: www.空手.jp (Karate)

Originally Posted by rhys

... up to 15% of user search activity happens on the url bar. others have mentioned this to me as well. i personally think that is high,

There are a lot of inexperienced users out there, especially all of the new people getting online for the first time. I think 15% is very possible.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by idnowner

If and when IDNs become popular, I believe some people and companies will brand generic names, just as Americans have done, since they are simple and easy to remember. Once new users get use to generic IDN.coms (and .jps), they are likely to try other random choices - and since, it appears all of the major keywords are getting registered, a huge number of these names (with PPC or other content) will be resolving, or re-directing to other relevant sites (in the weeks and months ahead), reinforcing the use of keyword searches into the address bar. Check out this IDN: www.空手.jp (Karate)



There are a lot of inexperienced users out there, especially all of the new people getting online for the first time. I think 15% is very possible.

The only reason a Human being from Asia reacts differently to one from the US is to do with the ease of inputting and the quality and relevence of the feedback. Once the playing field has been levelled by removing the need to think in a strange foriegn language, I think you will find that behaviour patterns will prove to be very similar.

The dot JP provided the Japanese with their own distinctive namespace in Latin Characters. Now that they have IDN, they have their own own namespace within the World's biggest and most prominent gTLD. Add to that the cost advantages and the better infrastructure around dot com, and I think it is clear that ccTLD is not essential for targeting local markets. Indeed, there is no logical reason why is should be preferred. Add to that the fact that Japan, Korea and China already use far more dot coms than anything else, and I think it is clear that dot com is the number one choice.

Best Regards
Dave

[Olney]

I'm in Tokyo & work for a Japanese Company
I have access to 2 companies with more than 60 employees
In the last 3 months I've asked a large percent of people each time to find something on the web for me.

0% tried to type it in themselves
about 3 people stopped typing it in Yahoo Japan (or Google) AFTER i started spelling it & told them I knew the URL

ALL of them after I asked them if they directly type in the domains answered "NO" because it's in English letters.

They write it in Japanese in Google or Yahoo & get the results
THIS IS A FACT
or they go to their bookmarks.

IDN domains opens the possibility of typein traffic.

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by Olney

I'm in Tokyo & work for a Japanese Company
I have access to 2 companies with more than 60 employees
In the last 3 months I've asked a large percent of people each time to find something on the web for me.

0% tried to type it in themselves
about 3 people stopped typing it in Yahoo Japan (or Google) AFTER i started spelling it & told them I knew the URL

ALL of them after I asked them if they directly type in the domains answered "NO" because it's in English letters.

They write it in Japanese in Google or Yahoo & get the results
THIS IS A FACT
or they go to their bookmarks.

IDN domains opens the possibility of typein traffic.

Good market research, but my experience has taught me that people are essentially the same all over the World, it is only their experience that differentiates them. The bottom line is, if American's type-in then the Japanese will also do so, if they are placed in an essentially similar scenario. I know this to be true, even though I have probably only ever actually spoken to half a dozen Japanese.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

[rhys]

[quote=Dwrixon]Once the playing field has been levelled by removing the need to think in a strange foriegn language, I think you will find that behaviour patterns will prove to be very similar.

Now that they have IDN, they have their own own namespace within the World's biggest and most prominent gTLD. Add to that the cost advantages and the better infrastructure around dot com, and I think it is clear that ccTLD is not essential for targeting local markets. Indeed, there is no logical reason why is should be preferred. Add to that the fact that Japan, Korea and China already use far more dot coms than anything else, and I think it is clear that dot com is the number one choice.


Definitely a valid point of view and Dwrixon could be right. However, unlike China and even Korea, the marketplace for Japanese language readers does not extend much beyond the borders of the country itself. .com vs .jp offers no "global" marketing advantage for the Japanese. If the Japanese want to appeal to non-Japanese they will buy an english language .com address period. At best it can confer a kind of "cool" factor for the Japanese there is no "global" marketing advantage in an IDN .com.

The cost advantage ($60 for a .jp or $1000 for a .com on the domain auction market?), better infrastructure (which is probably temporal in advantage), and perhaps that "cool" factor will help .com with some Japanese.

Unfortunately, as many potential Japanese IDN .com domains overlap with the Chinese language domains (specifically those in kanji not hiragana,katakana) the user experience for japanese surfing by habit exclusively on IDN .com addresses will be hit or miss (imagine 50% time finding a Chinese language site would drive a Japanese bonkers). This fact may not yet be apparent or appreciated by those who do not know the Japanese or the market but it is the red flashing light on the road forward for Japanese IDN .com. The Japanese will default to a TLD, a private island if you will, where only people who read Japanese will publish their content. I believe that island will be .jp ccTLD at the end of the day.

Early adopters putting out japanese content on IDN domains are perfectly comfortable using .com I am sure and hopefully for all those invested, this will kickstart a virtuous cycle of Japanese IDN .com mania. But I think at the end of the day, the mainstream Japanese are conservative, provincial and they will default to the security of all Japanese all-the-time IDN .jp because it is a sure bet.

Just MHO but it will be interesting to look back on this in 2 years and see who was wrong or right. We will all be thinking, "of course, what were we thinking!" and laugh about this. Or cry depending on how big our positions were...

[Rubber Duck]

Originally Posted by rhys

Just MHO but it will be interesting to look back on this in 2 years and see who was wrong or right. We will all be thinking, "of course, what were we thinking!" and laugh about this. Or cry depending on how big our positions were...

As one who is already generating a lot of sales, I don't think crying is on the agenda for either camp. We are really only talking and different brands of tipple here!

Just seen a comment on Olnyey's blog. I think that says it all: IDN is Domaining 2.0!

At the end of the day we are arguing about the width of the smile. I am sure there is a great future in dot JP and I am sure that both will be used in huge numbers. As a speculator, I have largely opted for dot Com. That is not to say there is no value in dot JP, what I was trying to say that it IDN gTLDs already give a local focus, without the need to go down the ccTLD route, although I take your point with the Character Overlap with China. Even that is a two edge sword, yes some may get frustrated at visiting Chinese sites, but the opportunity of marketing to Country with ten times the population might be seen as plus by some companies.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

[rhys]

Originally Posted by Dwrixon

At the end of the day we are arguing about the width of the smile.

I'm in agreement and my portfolio is 2/3 .jp and 1/3 .com so i'm somewhat hedged in any case. Amen.

[idnowner]

Originally Posted by Dwrixon

.... although I take your point with the Character Overlap with China. Even that is a two edge sword, ...
Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

Actually, "Kanji Overlap" can give you a unique advantage. As long as the language tag doesn't restrict your implementation - if the user originates from China, display Chinese content. If from Japan, display Japanese content, whether it is a developed website or PPC listings. And if originating from another country, provide a split screen - on one side a Japanese flag with an enter button, and on the other side, a Chinese flag with an enter button.

[rhys]

Originally Posted by Olney

IDN domains opens the possibility of typein traffic.

I agree that the possibility for this exists.

I'd sleep better at night though if I knew that firefox and mac users were already in their Tokyo 1LDK rabbit hutches at night furiously generating type in traffic for my bank account.

Can anyone offer some evidence of this? Please?

rhys

[rhys]

That opportunity exists and it would solve the potential problem. Except I doubt that realistically we can count on the vast majority of sites to do that. I wouldn't want to translate my blog into chinese every night, i barely get the english one written.

[rhys]

Did anyone else notice that in IE7 Beta 2 - if you click "Tools" drop down menu, "Internet Options" first tab "General" at the bottom "Appearance" and push "Languges" you can lock in the domain extension of your choice and call it up with Ctrl+Shift+Enter.

I actually don't know if this is an old feature or if it is new. Anyone with a 6.0 browser care to tell me? It seems esoteric to me and unlikely to tip the balance between .com and .jp one way or the other. But I found it interesting and useful.

[idnnow]

Originally Posted by rhys

Did anyone else notice that in IE7 Beta 2 - if you click "Tools" drop down menu, "Internet Options" first tab "General" at the bottom "Appearance" and push "Languges" you can lock in the domain extension of your choice and call it up with Ctrl+Shift+Enter.

I actually don't know if this is an old feature or if it is new. Anyone with a 6.0 browser care to tell me? It seems esoteric to me and unlikely to tip the balance between .com and .jp one way or the other. But I found it interesting and useful.

Cool! It must be new, I counldn't find it on IE6.