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Old 5th November 2023, 06:41 AM
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New Bitcoin Bull Market possible timeline and strategy

What could drive the next Bitcoin bull market cycle?

Catalysts:

Blackrock ETF approval will likely happen before Jan 2024.
Deutsche Bank and other large banks enter the BTC custody business.
Bitcoin halving 17 April
Regulation: Current trend is to regulate not to ban
Fed lowering interest rates(biggest driver IMO) estimated to happen mid 2024

Historically BTC has experienced a bull market lasting for 1.5 years after the halving

Possible problems: Recession, could happen within the next 6 months. Could temporarily suppress market.

Possible strategies to play the market:

Buy and hold for 1-2 years.
Wait for last recession related dip to buy cheaper. The FED would likely wait for a recession to start cutting interest rates. Ideal entry point would be when the market crashes and FED needs to step in. This could also be a possible entry point to use higher risk leveraged investments like options.

Higher risk strategy: Altcoin tend to outperform Bitcoin during a bull phase. Buy Altcoins that haven't yet experienced a pump cycle(Altcoins rarely tend to make a new high against BTC after the first bull market)

Possible exit strategy:

Wait for ~ 1.5 years after halving
Wait for RSI peaks:
https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/
Wait for widespread media attention and fomo
Wait for price target: BTC might reach $100-150k this cycle
Use long-term put options to go short or to buy portfolio insurance. Ideally if available buy put options for the most hyped altcoin of the current cycle.

Last edited by 123; 5th November 2023 at 06:59 AM..
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Old 12th February 2024, 09:44 PM
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Re: New Bitcoin Bull Market possible timeline and strategy

progressing well so far. feels like a pump is in the air...
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