The first $1mn IDN?...

[idn1234]

The first $1mn IDN: what do you think it will
be? (and why).

The name you post could be one of yours, but
do be prepared to defend/back up your beliefs,
since this will (hopefully) be a fairly spirited
debate!

A good opportunity exists now to talk about
what we think will be the first IDN to sell for
$1mn, and in doing so it may well help everyone
to consider IDN possibilities they hadn't even
thought of before...

[Edwin]

I don't think you'll ever see a $1 million IDN sale.

The names without traffic aren't ever going to reach that high, and those with tons of juicy traffic (post-adoption, post IE7 etc.) are going to be making so much money at that point that their owners won't sell - period. Just like as in ASCII right now there are about a dozen mega-domainers sitting on huge portfolios who never ever sell anything - and why should they when they're making millions and millions of dollars a year from parking income.

[idn1234]

Thanks for that Edwin, and just to clarify the
name could be letter, number or symbol-based;
whatever you think will the the first to sell (and
not necessarily the best).

e.g. It could be a country name, other generic,
chinese lucky number, even brand name (where
the mark holder decides not to fight).

Traffic is important and, if you have any names
that are currently bringing in a bit of income or
traffic then you can use that evidence to support
your choice.

Brand and cultural meaning is also important,
and you may think of a name that has a very wide
appeal (e.g. Blast thought of €.com recently).

[IDNer]

[ €.com ]

[touchring]

For any domain to command more than $xxx,xxx, it has to have a revenue record, let alone one million. People won't plonk down a million dollars for novelty sake or as a casino bet.

[grubstaker]

Every domain/domainer has a price... not sure if we'll see those #'s before IE7... perhaps afterwards... all is speculation till someone buys ♮.com!!!

[idnowner]

Originally Posted by Edwin

I don't think you'll ever see a $1 million IDN sale.

- and why should they when they're making millions and millions of dollars a year from parking income.

A name like GAMES or MUSIC (* in one of the "top" languages) could easily go for over $1M, when the market is ready (perhaps in under 1 or 2 years). The offer may be much greater than one might be able to generate from PPC. The value could come with development and promotion of the site, by the right developer.


* "top language" - A language that attracts a lot of type-in traffic from people that have plenty of money to spend.

[Explorer]

Originally Posted by idnowner

A name like GAMES or MUSIC (* in one of the "top" languages) could easily go for over $1M, when the market is ready (perhaps in under 2 years). The offer may be much greater than one might be able to generate from PPC. The value could come with development and promotion of the site, by the right developer.


* "top language" - A language that attracts a lot of type-in traffic from people that have plenty of money to spend.

I agree. When it comes to top generic domains, few buyers ask for stats. So, we might not see a $1MM IDN domain sale since the once IE7 is up and running, the monthly growth of revenues will be so high, it would be hard to value that IDN. But some IDNs will be worth that much, that's for sure.

[sarcle]

Originally Posted by Edwin

I don't think you'll ever see a $1 million IDN sale.

Wow, and coming from a veteran Ascii domainer that went through the 90s domain rush.

Don't you think this is a little to early to tell? Our browser hasn't arrived yet and adoption is far from taking hold. Who's to say what 1, 2, 3, 4 years down the line holds. To say never... wow... glad I didn't make that statement.

[IDNCowboy]

Originally Posted by idnowner

A name like GAMES or MUSIC (* in one of the "top" languages) could easily go for over $1M, when the market is ready (perhaps in under 1 or 2 years). The offer may be much greater than one might be able to generate from PPC. The value could come with development and promotion of the site, by the right developer.


* "top language" - A language that attracts a lot of type-in traffic from people that have plenty of money to spend.

I'm guessing you mean Hindi(soon), and Chinese but wouldn't include Japanese right?

What about those numbers like 888.com in the Chinese numbering system..

Looks like blastfromthepast might be buying a few mansions on the water.

[Explorer]

Originally Posted by sarcle

Wow, and coming from a veteran Ascii domainer that went through the 90s domain rush.

Don't you think this is a little to early to tell? Our browser hasn't arrived yet and adoption is far from taking hold. Who's to say what 1, 2, 3, 4 years down the line holds. To say never... wow... glad I didn't make that statement.

Just doing the math, a 10 year multiple on $277/day domain should give you a cool 1MM. Assuming 15% CTR and .15 per click, you need to have 12,346 visitors per day. That's a very high number, but not out of reach.

[sarcle]

Originally Posted by Explorer

That's a very high number, but not out of reach.

Exactly. Those numbers are far from unreachable depending on the speed of ie7 adoption. I've got one idn already seeing 500+ visitors a day. And that is in a country with no idn support.

[idnowner]

Originally Posted by Jeff

I'm guessing you mean Hindi(soon), and Chinese but wouldn't include Japanese right?

What about those numbers like 888.com in the Chinese numbering system..

Looks like blastfromthepast might be buying a few mansions on the water.

I'm hoping Japanese will be in the top 3, since that is most of mine. I worry about Chinese, because of their F***ed-up government.

I don't have any German IDNs, but that market (with .de) seems to be moving ahead nicely. As for other languages, I can't predict.

[domainguru]

Originally Posted by Explorer

Just doing the math, a 10 year multiple on $277/day domain should give you a cool 1MM. Assuming 15% CTR and .15 per click, you need to have 12,346 visitors per day. That's a very high number, but not out of reach.

Everyone seems to be assuming high-value sales are entirely based on PPC value??? Surely this isn't the case? Aren't alot of high-value sales based on "branding". Otherwise, why would someone have just paid $1.6M for branson.com. I'm 300% sure the PPC numbers wouldn't have justified such a price...

FWIW, I think million dollar IDN sales are an absolute shoe-in, but I wouldn't care to predict the timeline.

[Explorer]

Originally Posted by domainguru

Everyone seems to be assuming high-value sales are entirely based on PPC value??? Surely this isn't the case? Aren't alot of high-value sales based on "branding". Otherwise, why would someone have just paid $1.6M for branson.com. I'm 300% sure the PPC numbers wouldn't have justified such a price...

FWIW, I think million dollar IDN sales are an absolute shoe-in, but I wouldn't care to predict the timeline.

I agree that PPC is just one tool of many to value a domain. I am just pointing out that PPC-based valuation should put some floor on the price.

[thegenius1]

Originally Posted by Edwin

I don't think you'll ever see a $1 million IDN sale.

Originally Posted by sarcle

Wow, and coming from a veteran Ascii domainer that went through the 90s domain rush.

Don't you think this is a little to early to tell? Our browser hasn't arrived yet and adoption is far from taking hold. Who's to say what 1, 2, 3, 4 years down the line holds. To say never... wow... glad I didn't make that statement.

Sarcle i think his insurance on this statement was that he cant see how anybody will sell it if its making a ton of money , but somewhere people forget about companies that may want to buy a Name or somebody that may have a mutli million dollar plan to develope something , Edwin appears to be a PPC domainer so his philosophy seems to be based from that withought taking other things into consideration , Also he has been quoted on this forum before for making some comments kinda similiar to this about the ASCII world back in the mid 90's on Igoldrush.com and i frankly remeber his theories then were wrong like i strongly believe they are wrong now

Also i like to add i think this thread was created in good fun & business to see what we think will be the big one or what big one do we think we hold personally , I think chiming in saying it wont happen for reasons that are only based on a 1 sided calculation should be started in another thread.

[touchring]

Originally Posted by domainguru

Everyone seems to be assuming high-value sales are entirely based on PPC value??? Surely this isn't the case? Aren't alot of high-value sales based on "branding". Otherwise, why would someone have just paid $1.6M for branson.com. I'm 300% sure the PPC numbers wouldn't have justified such a price...

FWIW, I think million dollar IDN sales are an absolute shoe-in, but I wouldn't care to predict the timeline.

Well, check out Branson's ovt with ext. It's not exactly "without traffic". I think it's commanding such a high price also because of the history behind it.

[idnowner]

Originally Posted by touchring

Well, check out Branson's ovt with ext. It's not exactly "without traffic". I think it's commanding such a high price also because of the history behind it.

Branson is a HUGE country-music entertainment center and travel-destination.

[touchring]

Originally Posted by Jeff

I'm guessing you mean Hindi(soon), and Chinese but wouldn't include Japanese right?

What about those numbers like 888.com in the Chinese numbering system..

Looks like blastfromthepast might be buying a few mansions on the water.

888.com - this is definitely worth more than a million without PPC. Furthermore, it's now linked to a Casino.

[Giant]

After everything is ready, I think IDN will worth 1/2 - 1/5 of the value of ASCII domains depending on the language. There's no need to care how much IDNs are worth now because our IDNs are for the market when it's ripe.

There are still some uncertainties between now and the full implementation of IDN, browser support, idn.idn... And these "uncertainties" really make IDNs investing more interesting than ASCII domains. I knew some people interested in IDN a few years back, they did not invest any money because of such uncertainty, and they are still waiting for idn.idn to settle. In their view, IDN is only about 75% - 80% sure...

I always feel that what makes life worth living is exactly such Uncertainties in life, you can never be sure you will still live tomorrow. For ordinary people, 80% sure is not enough, but for smart people, 80% is actually 100%. I don't discriminate against not-smart people, but I have to admit that opportunities to get rich are always taken by people with vision -- people that have the guts to believe 80% sure is very sure and care to take action.