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Old 20th July 2006, 12:34 PM
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AFP China's online population hits 123 million

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BEIJING (AFP) - China's Internet population has jumped to 123 million at the end of June, consolidating the nation's status as the world's number two after the United States, the government said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060719.../chinainternet
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Old 20th July 2006, 12:55 PM
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Re: AFP

These headline stats are all very well, but these are not really the important ones. It is the total market size and the rate at which those markets continue to be penetrated that is significant. These figure tell you the US is just about saturated whilst China has hardly got going. However, China's rate of growth is accelerating rapidly and the US will be overhauled within two years. After that China will progressively go on to totally dwarf the US in every measure except total spend in dollar terms, which will take a little longer. Those suggesting 50 odd years though have no concept of the market dynamics. 10 years is much more realistic.
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Old 20th July 2006, 01:34 PM
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Re: AFPChina's online population hits 123 million

10 years?

for some reason recently I have been seeing alot of coverage of the increase of expendable income in China. Even tour guides are earning around US1k a month while the number of Mainland Chinese US$ millionaires saw an exponential jump versus the year previous. Sorry for the lack of solid numbers but my information comes from credible sources like the Herald Tribune and BBC News. I am sure most of you have already read, despite the Chinese Govt's efforts to stall growth, China's economy grew in double didgits!

Give it 5 years. Maybe our Mainland Chinese friends can give us a better insight as to what is going down!

Last edited by Prodigy; 20th July 2006 at 01:38 PM..
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Old 20th July 2006, 02:43 PM
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Re: AFPChina's online population hits 123 million

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChinaStar
10 years?

for some reason recently I have been seeing alot of coverage of the increase of expendable income in China. Even tour guides are earning around US1k a month while the number of Mainland Chinese US$ millionaires saw an exponential jump versus the year previous. Sorry for the lack of solid numbers but my information comes from credible sources like the Herald Tribune and BBC News. I am sure most of you have already read, despite the Chinese Govt's efforts to stall growth, China's economy grew in double didgits!

Give it 5 years. Maybe our Mainland Chinese friends can give us a better insight as to what is going down!
I am trying to maintain credibility with such forecasts. Most people would laugh in your face at 10 years before China takes over as the Worlds largest economy. I think 10 years is entirely credible. I think 5 is unrealistic, but it is possible that the truth lies somewhere between the two. Those big accountancy firms that are talking 2050 are talking out of their arse. They are simply projecting very simplified measures. If Bush pursuades China to increase it currency by 50% over the next couple of years, then the size of China's economy instantly increases by that much.

China has huge problems understanding what it's own economy is actually doing. They simply do not have the experience of managing this kind of system. I am also sure that Black Economy is enormous. Add to that the fact that the US is essentially loosing its industrial base, then you have got problems. At the present rate of progress in five years time the US will largely about people selling bagles to other people and then use the profits to go and eat hamburgers prepared by he first set of people. Even in the high tech areas the US is seemingly loosing its way. Much of the new investment is either in China or India.
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Old 20th July 2006, 02:56 PM
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Re: AFPChina's online population hits 123 million

There is no doubt that the US economy will never be able to have the same momentum they enjoyed in previous years.

Double didgit growth for the next 5 years and an internet boom looming (aside from other areas, the property market is currently very played out). In 5 years, I will probably see you on the cover of Money, but at least I'll be able to say that I once had one over the Rubber Duck
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Old 20th July 2006, 03:10 PM
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Re: AFPChina's online population hits 123 million

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChinaStar
There is no doubt that the US economy will never be able to have the same momentum they enjoyed in previous years.

Double didgit growth for the next 5 years and an internet boom looming (aside from other areas, the property market is currently very played out). In 5 years, I will probably see you on the cover of Money, but at least I'll be able to say that I once had one over the Rubber Duck
Well, I am probably more interested in being Rich than Right. I am not sure that the celebrity lifestyle is something I would wish anyway. Good luck with your prediction, as it is very good news for all IDNers, those with Simplified Chinese particularly.
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