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Originally Posted by ChinaStar
10 years?
for some reason recently I have been seeing alot of coverage of the increase of expendable income in China. Even tour guides are earning around US1k a month while the number of Mainland Chinese US$ millionaires saw an exponential jump versus the year previous. Sorry for the lack of solid numbers but my information comes from credible sources like the Herald Tribune and BBC News. I am sure most of you have already read, despite the Chinese Govt's efforts to stall growth, China's economy grew in double didgits!
Give it 5 years. Maybe our Mainland Chinese friends can give us a better insight as to what is going down!
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I am trying to maintain credibility with such forecasts. Most people would laugh in your face at 10 years before China takes over as the Worlds largest economy. I think 10 years is entirely credible. I think 5 is unrealistic, but it is possible that the truth lies somewhere between the two. Those big accountancy firms that are talking 2050 are talking out of their arse. They are simply projecting very simplified measures. If Bush pursuades China to increase it currency by 50% over the next couple of years, then the size of China's economy instantly increases by that much.
China has huge problems understanding what it's own economy is actually doing. They simply do not have the experience of managing this kind of system. I am also sure that Black Economy is enormous. Add to that the fact that the US is essentially loosing its industrial base, then you have got problems. At the present rate of progress in five years time the US will largely about people selling bagles to other people and then use the profits to go and eat hamburgers prepared by he first set of people. Even in the high tech areas the US is seemingly loosing its way. Much of the new investment is either in China or India.
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