A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

After doing a small bit of research, I would like to give a 3rd party outside observation on IDNS.

IMHO, IDNs will indeed make some people extremely rich, but others will never see their fortunes fall.

It basically boils down to this: traffic and ease of typeablity.

I do not like how everyone in this forum is screaming how each one of them will become an IDN millionare. The fact is you wont. Like all other markets, around 10% will become really really successful. More then half will get little or no return.

The way I see IDNS is through the perspective of the keyboard, which brings me to this question.

How in the world will the chinese be able to type a chinese domain QUICKLY and EFFECTIVELY. I know you can type in chinese with the RIGHT program, but you do know it is a pain in the ass to type characters right?

You must type in the pin yin version, then choose the word by clicking on it, which will then finally appear on the computer screen.

This way of typing is quite ineffective and SLOW. The typical internet user will NOT Waste his time typing pin yin correctly in order to reach a website....

I think that all 3+ Chinese character domains are worthless and will never materialize due to this laziness factor.

It really puzzles me why people are registering all kinds of chinese idns.

This is the chinese keyboard:

http://libai.math.ncu.edu.tw/bcc16/p...i-keyboard.jpg

You CANT type 99% of the all chinese keywords directly via keyboard. IT IS A PAIN to do so!!!

Same with Japanese characters.

Now, onto IDNS that will prosper.

Notice that this is the SPANISH keyboard:

http://www.sussex.ac.uk/its/faciliti...ds/spanish.gif

Now, it looks like the english keyboard except for one small thing... it has the ñ symbol.

A typical spanish user CAN type in the ñ easily, as if typing in another letter.

THIS is what the goldmine in IDNS really is for! Once IE7 does become released España.com will be worth a TON of money! Easily typable in the native language = $$$$$$.

I hope you see what I mean.

In a NUTSHELL: IDNS that can be typed easily as a "letter" on the keyboard are the ones that will get traffic when IE7 is released. It is imperative to register these names before the general public is aware of such things.

I do not see Japanese or Chinese domains taking off due to the complexity of typing domain names.

Let me know if you have any comments,
Sam

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

If your concern is typing...
Please stay & I will fully explain the Japanese perspective....
I just wanted to post first as a place holder...

& others don't let this get into a grudgematch if one isn't familiar with typing in Japanese or Chinese.

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

http://inventory.overture.com/d/sear...estion/?mkt=jp

http://inventory.overture.com/d/sear...estion/?mkt=hk


http://google.com/trends


Pick a Japanese or a Chinese Word and plug it into one of these two services then explain to us the difference between search and typing in domains.

You can perform this excersise with many keywords , it should give you a good perspective of the typing habits of the Natives

http://www.idnaffiliates.com/idneboo...aokeTrends.bmp

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

To think about the Japanese & Chinese perspective.
Please think like a Native & not as one who isn't completely fluent in the language.

Typing in Japanese or Chinese is as natural as breathing. I'm not even Japanese & can email & chat faster in Japanese than English.

May I ask WHY would you assume anyone or any nation is NOT comfortable typing in their native language...

1. In English we have to type a SPACE & hit SHIFT for every capital letter.

In Japanese you hit shift to change the characters at the end of the word..
What's the difference?

There are no complaints about Japanese & Chinese typing. Young Japanese use email & surf the internet easily, they email constantly in Japanese. They have no issues or problems at all.

So if this is your 3rd party view I think I'm just explaining to you. It's not valid. I work in Search Marketing, & SEO in Tokyo. I've only heard from NON Japanese that typing in Japanese is hard. I've NEVER heard from a Japanese person that typing in Japanese is hard because they would LOOK LIKE A FOOL...

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

People who don't speak English will not type in English domain names very well. That's for sure.

They will use their own language, using whatever tools there are for input. If you think those languages, or input tools are complicated, that's too bad for you. Start taking Chinese lessons in your spare time. Then react in shock when you realize little kids speak Chinese perfectly even though you stumble through basic concepts. Your post is the same kind of reaction. Wow! Look, there are complicated languages, more complicated then mine, amazing how do those guys over there use them? Wow, dude, they can type in Chinese too! How complicated it must be! Surely, they will never get through writing a letter in Chinese, there are thousands of chracters to choose from! How on earth can they decide which ones to use?!

What you say has no bearing on what end-users, especially end users who speak no English.

Get this: the Japanese Kana keyboard is actually more effective than English. It outputs whole syllables in one keypress.

Edit: I guess you are Chinese, so the above is not relevant.

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

Both my parents are native chinese. I had to myself type up a paper for chinese school. It was a pure pain in the butt. Took me several hours to write a single page of mainland characters.

I admit i have no experience with the japanese language ( i assumed they had a similar system like the chinese) . Perhaps you can explain to me how they type?

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

Also typing in Japanese or Chinese is more of a developed system than many who do not type think.

Yes there if you type a word like Haken you might get a few different choices for the kanji.
Here's what people who don't type, wouldn't know.

COMPUTERS REMEMBER THE MOST COMMON USED VERSION BY YOU AUTOMATIC...

That's right if I always type haken 派遣 & hit space it automatically gives me the version I use the most often.

Typing in Asian languages is very developed please don't be mislead by anyone telling you otherwise... Switching an encode is ONE button, not an issue..

ask a Japanese person "that's computer literate", & ask them to type something in Japanese. See if they tell you it's too hard or even seem like it's an issue.

In my office there's more than 40 Japanese employees typing all day....
I've asked them constantly


what's better typing in ShibuyaMise.com
or 渋谷店.com ?

The answer is the same

They wouldn't try to type in the first one at all. They'd type it out in Japanese & try to search for it. It's a FACT!!!!

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

Ok your opinion is of one that I assume does not function in Chinese. Do you always type in Chinese? How is your level of Chinese? How's your level of Kanji? (I'm not trying to put you on the spot but it's it's related)

I mean we can only look at the perspective of those who function in the language.
I knew Japanese in the States that were American & couldn't function to save their life in Japanese. I mean if I look at Chinese domaining sites there is literally over 30,000 members on the biggest Chinese domaining site... They seem to be typing very well.

I think it's just your level of Chinese personally (again not a shot at you) because you don't usually type in Chinese.

Let's see what Chinese natives think... Giant types Chinese on the site often, & I've never heard him say typing in Chinese was difficult.

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

Well, you could have written it in traditional characters and then converted it to simplified. You have no trouble with those, right?

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

Thank you for raising this issue which is commonly brought up by those thinking through IDNs for the first time. I'm proud of us for being relatively restrained (we aren't always). I hope that we can convince you away from your views, but if we can't that is ok too.

My question to you is how do you think that people in China and Japan write essays, articles, dissertations, blogs, books? Do you seriously think that we all just kind of dictate spoken Japanese into a tape recorder and send it to India to be transcribed into English and later machine translated into printed Japanese? Or do you think they just handwrite it and OCR it? Perhaps its little typing fairies? I think not.

The answer is the Japanese and Chinese type in Japanese and Chinese. The proof of that is that they read in Japanese and Chinese. Someone has to be generating all that content, and those people are likely typing all that content. Please disprove me.

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

How do people write essays in school in their native language? I'm sure each character take several strokes. It is natural and easy for them.

We aren't that dumb ;-). There have been several discussions on how to type them on a keyboard. Many natives can type their language pretty quickly.

Many people on here will become millionaires. The people that are getting in NOW are likely not to become as rich.

Why? Most of the members here started around January. There are some other people that started in 2000. Within the last few months prime words have been picked dry. Those that are looking now are definitely not getting as many names as they could have if they had gotten in early. Already look at nude.com - it is up to $2000

Look at snapnames.. IE 7 isn't even final yet and the market is taking off.

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

On a positive note I almost agree with this. I believe that current members make up a small percentage of IDNers or investors that also invest in IDN Domains, that will make up the total industry 3 or 4 years from now.

I strongly do believe that many of the current forum members will be included in that 10%.. & many others that will be in the 50% that will at least turn a good profit.

Those that come on board one year from now without native language skills will be in the worst position. Those coming in later with investment funding will be able to get good investment domains.

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

I have to partly disagree.

Have you seen nice one worder .com's go for less than $50k? It is a good return on investment for $6.99 even 2-3 years down the road.


Ok, so your worst name sells for $10k later (perhaps you got a few dollars a click k/w) you'll still do ok financially.

I believe that most of the members that joined in January-Feb that were taking a huge risk will reap the best benefits.

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

Many Chinese domainers are registering 4 character idns, in particular the symbols for a "City" combined with a service- ie. "Hotel", or "Real Estate", or "Employment" etc. Take a visit to www.idnclub.com (Chinese language idn forum)and check out the showcase (many 4 character idns) and ask your opinion there as well. Anxious to hear back from you...

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

There's over 600 members currently.
I believe the most active 100 or 200 members will do the best. I believe there is going to be at least 500 times more people interested in IDNs in the coming years. Our current numbers are small compared to this.

I'm just saying currently you can go into 3 categories

1. Be in the top 10% of the market 5 years from now
2. If only 50% of the market of IDNers make a good profit "5 years from now" most of the remaining current members should fall into this category.
3. Mess up before the market opens some how, get backrupt, drop names etc...

I think we are thinking along the same lines Jeff...

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

http://www.idnaffiliates.com/idneboo...eseParking.bmp


I think this Screenshot of Some of Mr. Ducks Chinese IDN's parked for Less then 24 hours can shed some light on some of the above comments ;)

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

The first condition that decides whether you will be a millionair or not is whether you have such a dream or not. If you do, you will. If you don't, you won't.

Never underestimate the power of dreaming!


The ease that the Chinese have when typing Chinese characters is the same ease you feel when you type English, EFFECTIVE and FAST.

The difficulty that you imagine the Chinese typer would have is simply non-existant. Your subjective view can't represent the fact.

The Chinese actually think the other way should be true. They don't understand why so "complicated and hard to remember" English is still being used today. Example:

Mississippi Department of Transportation = 密西西比运输部.

Which one do you think is easier to type？ Of course, the Chinese one!


Bill Gate will let you see soon :)


*** Olney should be elected "Ambassador of IDN to the English speaking world"!

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

What you are saying is nothing new, most mainlanders think that idns can't take off because of this reason, among others, but a good name is still a good name - ease of recall is more important than how fast you can type out a domain (for example, nothing beats numbers, but numbers are difficult to remember), and besides, some people will still use idns in time to come, especially when the pinyin option is not available. And in the worst case scenario, even if end user market for idn does not take off, we still can earn from type-in PPC.

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

Damitssam: I respect your post, and it is good to hear constructive critism. Without an apposing view, we are just in danger of all disappearng up our own arses.

I would encourage you to reply to this post, this CAN be an interesting debate, it doesn't have to turn into an arguement.

So please continue posting on this topic. :)

Re: A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
 

This is great that everyone is politely answering my question.

However, I still dont have an answer. Can anyone show me how its done? I assume the methods havent changed since I did it (which is a long time ago) where you had to download a program, and then use "zhu yin or pin yin" to then type the pronouncation and then you chose the word by clicking on it.

I honestly just cant see how you can type fast if you have to "click" on a word. Can someone shed me some light... perhaps time has changed (i was using windows 95 back then i think XD).

Well i stink at chinese now, but i imagine typing in ALL The pronouncation + the clicking takes longer then to type the Mississippi Department of Transportation.

Again, I am americanized so i really dunno whats the current trend.

And finally to add on a point: Why are so many frieking people registering SO MANY CHINESE IDNS? I mean the PPC market is currently horrible, why not go invest into the spanish market, or the arabic market, where MUCH better keywords are available... (i might just start soon once i sell off all my ASCII)