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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 5th September 2006, 02:16 PM
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How Big is Downside for ASCII

Very big if my ND stats are anything to go by!

I have move the rump of my ASCII to ND. I noticed today that just about 50% of the traffic on those English ASCII is coming from Asia if the statics are to be believed. No wonder the ASCII guys don't like us very much!
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Old 5th September 2006, 02:21 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

I will give you some advice.
Create 2 NameDrive accounts
One for IDNs & one for ASCII domains.
I like to see my stats based on IDNs only
The ASCII domains messes up the figures.
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Old 5th September 2006, 02:25 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olney
I will give you some advice.
Create 2 NameDrive accounts
One for IDNs & one for ASCII domains.
I like to see my stats based on IDNs only
The ASCII domains messes up the figures.
I use the folder system to separate everything out by languages anyway. Having everything in the same account presents no problems as far as I can see.
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Old 5th September 2006, 05:11 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

We're now at turning point. Interest rates peaking, housing market peaking, etc. Downside for ASCII yes, everyone knows this.
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Old 5th September 2006, 05:26 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
We're now at turning point. Interest rates peaking, housing market peaking, etc. Downside for ASCII yes, everyone knows this.
Not quite sure what any of this has to do with domaining. It certainly has little to do with Asia where just about every major economy is either flat out or improving.

Focusing uniquely on the US, if the housing market is peaking that means that alternative forms of investment are likely to become more popular not less. High interest rates will attract people to Bonds rather than Stocks, but not clear how it would affect domain investment. I am not sure that major players in domains would be much influenced. The main consideration is the growth in online advertising which is huge. Recession only increases the need for advertising, but does mean that it needs to be better focused, i.e. it needs to go online!

If there is major fall out in the domain market, it will be that because of the realisation that most of what has been bought has been Fools Gold. I am sure we have all bought our share of that commodity. That will only serve to make the real thing even more valuable.
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Old 5th September 2006, 05:36 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Whatever, i think we are safer with IDNs than ASCIIs. But big opportunity ahead next year.
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Old 5th September 2006, 05:43 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Good ASCII will do very well. There are, however, now 100M in Circulation with probably about 15% to 20% held by speculators. Unless you can think of 15M + hot names then it is a reasonable assumption that most of it is utter crap. When the fallout comes most buyers will be unable to distinquish quality from crap, as they have shown little inclination to do so up until now. Yes, there will be a very significant shake out, which will only be made worse by all the scams that are going on to manufacture earnings stats.

Solid traffic domains will continue to earn go money. Selling prices in this sector are substantially irrelevant.
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Old 5th September 2006, 05:58 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Good ASCII will do very well.

Solid traffic domains will continue to earn go money. Selling prices in this sector are substantially irrelevant.

Agreed, that's why we are into idns, to get good names that can hopefully outlive the hype.
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Old 5th September 2006, 06:02 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Agreed, that's why we are into idns, to get good names that can survive the hype.
When the Tsunami strikes, they will understand why we were scouting the hills when they were lounging on the beach.
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Old 5th September 2006, 06:27 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

I'm with Touch on this one. The US economy is poised on the brink of disaster and the majority of ASCII revenue is the USA. When the US economy tanks, ASCII name values will crash too.

The economy is being propped up by consumer spending, which is being enabled by people remortgaging their properties in a housing bull market. That market is about to change direction and when it does it's going to plunge.

And a huge number of people are going to go to the wall...

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...7/b4000001.htm

http://www.americanprogress.org/site...8OVF&b=1655517
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Old 5th September 2006, 06:38 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Yes, I am afraid that the American Dream is largely a excercise in creative accounting. However, all capital flights means a big chunk of the cash ends up somewhere else. Many of the bigger real estate owners will pull the plug early and have huge pots of money to reinvest elsewhere. As usual, it is your average Joe that gets burnt the worst.

Stock markets have underperformed because too much money has been going into housing and elsewhere. Perversely, sometimes when you think things should be hit they actually rise, particularly in things known as defensive stocks. People start to rationalise. You still need Food, and you still need electricity. New Cars, Nah! Pharmeuticals is another defensive stock. People still get sick.
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Old 5th September 2006, 07:41 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

I believe you on this one Touch
Bigger opportunities will come next year. We all have to really think longterm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Whatever, i think we are safer with IDNs than ASCIIs. But big opportunity ahead next year.
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Old 5th September 2006, 09:17 PM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

IDN is the ultimate domain diversification strategy.
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Old 6th September 2006, 06:22 AM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

I'm no economist, but I think the situation is actually more complex than we think. The world actually replies on USA's consumer and military spending.

China for one is tied to the USA in terms of foreign exchange the trade surplus. Trade surplus in China has created excessive investment in real estate in some second or third tier cities - empty luxury condos, apartments and offices that locals cannot afford to rent or buy. A correction like the Asian financial crisis that hit Thailand and South Korea in the late 90s is needed to rectify the excess.

Japan, Korea, and the rest of East, South East Asia, and Australia in turn exports raw materials or goods to China and is dependent on China's consumer spending and fixed asset spending for economic growth.

India depends on the USA for outsourcing income.

Conclusion is: If USA spending slows down sharply, the rest will fall like dominos. Economies that depends on exports will be the hardest hit. Economies with huge amount of non-performing bank loans will take the longest to recover, e.g. Indonesia is still stuck while Thailand has soared.

Question is: How long will USA spending continue like it is today? This is for Nobel prize scientists to debate.

Last edited by touchring; 6th September 2006 at 06:40 AM..
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Old 6th September 2006, 06:37 AM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Well, touch, that may be true.

Just to be safe, I'll hold your IDNs for you until things blow over. They'll be safe in Atlanta. We are one of the 13 original colonies and we can weather any 21st century storm. I'll even sell them back to you at half, yes HALF, the going rate at that time. OK? Buddy?

I'll PM my DD and DS acct #s.

:p
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Old 6th September 2006, 06:49 AM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsinternet
Well, touch, that may be true.

Just to be safe, I'll hold your IDNs for you until things blow over. They'll be safe in Atlanta. We are one of the 13 original colonies and we can weather any 21st century storm. I'll even sell them back to you at half, yes HALF, the going rate at that time. OK? Buddy?

I'll PM my DD and DS acct #s.

:p

IDNs, last thing to worry about, costs only $8 to renew. But daily decisions like house buying, business expansion plans, etc, will be harder.
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Old 6th September 2006, 07:02 AM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

OK, but I'll be here if you need me.
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Old 6th September 2006, 07:04 AM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsinternet
OK, but I'll be here if you need me.

Thanks, we'll never know, if ICANN starts wobbling and 0.001% chance of deciding to make US residency for .com compulsory. :p

btw, has Yahoo Adsense relaxed it's US residency only rule?

Last edited by touchring; 6th September 2006 at 07:10 AM..
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Old 6th September 2006, 07:19 AM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Thanks, we'll never know, if ICANN starts wobbling and 0.001% chance of deciding to make US residency for .com compulsory. :p
You hadn't heard? Oh my gosh! Transfer your domains QUICK and I'll tell you all about it! HURRY!!!

Can you tell it's a slow night?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
btw, has Yahoo Adsense relaxed it's US residency only rule?
No idea. I only use Google.
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Old 6th September 2006, 08:35 AM
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Re: How Big is Downside for ASCII

The idea that China is totally dependendant on the US is largely a myth. If you believe the Americans Chinas economy is just an appendage of their own. This is simply not true. China has cash coming out of its ears. The only reason that interest rates in China are as high as they are is because the Chinese are trying to put the brakes on an economy that has unprecedented levels of growth. Recession is generally for economies that have run out of options. The US is running out of options. China most certainly is not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
I'm no economist, but I think the situation is actually more complex than we think. The world actually replies on USA's consumer and military spending.

China for one is tied to the USA in terms of foreign exchange the trade surplus. Trade surplus in China has created excessive investment in real estate in some second or third tier cities - empty luxury condos, apartments and offices that locals cannot afford to rent or buy. A correction like the Asian financial crisis that hit Thailand and South Korea in the late 90s is needed to rectify the excess.

Japan, Korea, and the rest of East, South East Asia, and Australia in turn exports raw materials or goods to China and is dependent on China's consumer spending and fixed asset spending for economic growth.

India depends on the USA for outsourcing income.

Conclusion is: If USA spending slows down sharply, the rest will fall like dominos. Economies that depends on exports will be the hardest hit. Economies with huge amount of non-performing bank loans will take the longest to recover, e.g. Indonesia is still stuck while Thailand has soared.

Question is: How long will USA spending continue like it is today? This is for Nobel prize scientists to debate.
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