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Old 29th October 2006, 07:06 PM
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Perspective on Size of Chinese Economy

The economist tell us that China's economy has just outgrown that of Great Britain, but does this give us a true picture of what is going on? I have thought not for a very long time now.

We need to look for other clues:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6096084.stm

<<But unilateral moves will not be enough, Sir Nicholas added. For example, if the UK shut down all of its power stations tomorrow, the reduction in global emissions would be wiped out in just over a year by increased emissions from China.>>

So China's increase in Carbon emission next year will be equivalent to the entire UK output. This tells us that if China is growing by 20% a year, it consumption of Carbon is already more than 4 times that of the UK. Of course if you believe that economic growth in China is only 9% then it is already damned nearly 10 times our size. Does that tell you that in real meaningful terms, rather than the bullshit US$ measures, that China is small beer or does that tell you that China's consumption is just about on par with Western Europe? Of course in the US cognition that is probably about the size of Hawaii.

The truth is that soon there are going to be very large movement in exchange rates and a new Technological and Industrial Superpower will have been born.
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Old 29th October 2006, 09:30 PM
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Re: Perspective on Size of Chinese Economy

China's growth rate is 9% for the whole country, including the poor country side, but in major cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai it could well be 20% a year as you said, and definitely more than 15%.

Again, i must emphasize the difference China is not one economy. To give an idea, the difference between the richest and poorest part of China, is probably greater than the difference between Switzerland and Albania, in other words, national wealth disparity in China is even more than the whole of Europe, if we consider Europe as one country! :o

On the emission, burning coal probably generates 50 times the emission of gas power stations.

Last edited by touchring; 29th October 2006 at 09:36 PM..
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Old 30th October 2006, 12:20 AM
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Re: Perspective on Size of Chinese Economy

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
China's growth rate is 9% for the whole country, including the poor country side, but in major cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai it could well be 20% a year as you said, and definitely more than 15%.

Again, i must emphasize the difference China is not one economy. To give an idea, the difference between the richest and poorest part of China, is probably greater than the difference between Switzerland and Albania, in other words, national wealth disparity in China is even more than the whole of Europe, if we consider Europe as one country! :o

On the emission, burning coal probably generates 50 times the emission of gas power stations.
Definitely more and it is dirtier but not as much as 50%. When Methane burns it form two molecule of Water and one of Carbon Dioxide. Coal produces mainly Carbon Dioxide, and also a lot of soot. The soot is really not that harmful on a global scale, although it is pretty dirty locally.

Even in Europe and the US, there is still a lot of coal burnt.
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Old 30th October 2006, 03:37 AM
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Re: Perspective on Size of Chinese Economy

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Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Definitely more and it is dirtier but not as much as 50%. When Methane burns it form two molecule of Water and one of Carbon Dioxide. Coal produces mainly Carbon Dioxide, and also a lot of soot. The soot is really not that harmful on a global scale, although it is pretty dirty locally.

Even in Europe and the US, there is still a lot of coal burnt.

Well, not sure if you been to China, even trucks burning the same diesel (not exactly same grade :p) can produce probably 10 times for emission than in the UK or Europe!
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Old 30th October 2006, 04:35 AM
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Re: Perspective on Size of Chinese Economy

Sounds like Mexico. None, or very little emissions control. Trucks and buses drive along belching out thick acrid smoke with relative impunity.
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Old 30th October 2006, 08:29 AM
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Re: Perspective on Size of Chinese Economy

Look I worked in Africa for years so I know what you are talking about.

However, thick black acrid smoke has almost nothing to do with CO2 emmissions. Total energy produced is very much linked with CO2 emissions, whether the burning process is clean or not.
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