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Old 2nd November 2006, 06:36 PM
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What's the matter with America?

Dow Jones breaking records, while all other indicators like buying, manufacturer, etc, going downhill.

What's going on? Can't feel it in Singapore as it's currently very bullish, everything going up - at least if we believe the propaganda.
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Old 2nd November 2006, 06:58 PM
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Re: What's the matter with America?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Dow Jones breaking records, while all other indicators like buying, manufacturer, etc, going downhill.

What's going on? Can't feel it in Singapore as it's currently very bullish, everything going up - at least if we believe the propaganda.
If you knew anything about Stockmarkets, you would know that they do not reflect current news. Stockmarkets are leading indicators, that generally look a year or two ahead. Not that they always get it right. They are anticipating that current weakness will lead to lower interest rates and a lower exchange rates that will ultimately be better for Corporate America.
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Old 2nd November 2006, 07:37 PM
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Re: What's the matter with America?

What's the big deal?

Dow Jones RECOVERS to where it was years ago. Factor in inflation, and it's still down on where it should be.

They're desperately grasping anything they can find that can be construed as good news.
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Old 3rd November 2006, 02:23 AM
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Re: What's the matter with America?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
If you knew anything about Stockmarkets, you would know that they do not reflect current news. Stockmarkets are leading indicators, that generally look a year or two ahead. Not that they always get it right. They are anticipating that current weakness will lead to lower interest rates and a lower exchange rates that will ultimately be better for Corporate America.

ok, that's a good point, a slowdown will force the feds to lower interest rates. Ironic isn't it? but isn't it the election that actually helped prevent rate increease?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewbert
What's the big deal?

Dow Jones RECOVERS to where it was years ago. Factor in inflation, and it's still down on where it should be.

They're desperately grasping anything they can find that can be construed as good news.
2000 was the height of the stock market boom - with all that dot com bubble..

Last edited by touchring; 3rd November 2006 at 02:27 AM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 3rd November 2006, 02:59 AM
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Re: What's the matter with America?

DotCom bubble was NASDAQ, not DOWJONES index?
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Old 3rd November 2006, 03:30 AM
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Re: What's the matter with America?

Here, i found an article that explains the current paradox:

http://www.jsmineset.com/
Jim’s Formula:
1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations.
3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension. Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1.

This is an economic downward spiral.I heard all this "slow business" as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.The key development today was the decline in the dollar based on soft housing prices in light of the recent positive TIC report.That is what is meant by the Formula overtakes Treasury International Capital flow in command of the dollar. That renders some comfort as we attempt to define the fudge factor in the new TIC statistics. This was covered with a single word in that announcement. The word was "estimated."The key number for the US dollar is .8500. Under that we test the old low.The key numbers now for gold are $612 followed by $682 versus December forward.
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