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Old 3rd November 2006, 03:31 PM
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Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/f...ies-vt220.html

Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Quote:
A Forbes article pairs off commodities bull Jim Rogers with Merrill Lynch’s bear Stephen Roach. Here are a few excerpts; click the link above for full text.

Jim Rogers says, “This is a great time to invest in commodities.... Supply of things like base metals, oil and rubber is crimped after years of underinvestment in mines and oilfields and farms, he says, so prices are heading up. And they will go up, with some transitory hiccups, well into the next decade and perhaps even the one following. Copper, zinc and oil have all at least doubled in the past three years. You'll see more doublings in many more commodities.”

Stephen Roach says, “commodity prices could fall another third from here, putting an end to silly notions of a so-called supercycle of commodity increases. The culprits: slowing growth in China, a voracious buyer of commodities, and a U.S. housing recession that, he says, will slash demand for building materials like copper and weigh down the global economy.”
Dang! Stephen didn't travel on bike in China?
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Old 3rd November 2006, 03:34 PM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

I believe in commodities personally.
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Old 3rd November 2006, 03:43 PM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Fish is better. Buy a 3 tons of tuna, keep in the freezer. In 20 year's time there will be no tuna left, then these will cost a million each.
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Old 3rd November 2006, 03:49 PM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Fish is better. Buy a 3 tons of tuna, keep in the freezer. In 20 year's time there will be no tuna left, then these will cost a million each.
Well, there might be some places where that would work. In the UK it would cost you a fortune to keep it and you would face a huge disposal bill at the end.

Most commodities cost a fortune to store. If you are talking about futures it is not generally possible to look a long horizons.

Maybe double in three years. Why would an IDNer be interested in that kind of return, for the hassle and risk involved?
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Old 3rd November 2006, 03:57 PM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

I like certain physical commodities from a survivalist stand point. That and good cooking skills.

Last edited by OldIDNer; 3rd November 2006 at 04:18 PM..
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Old 3rd November 2006, 03:58 PM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Well, there might be some places where that would work. In the UK it would cost you a fortune to keep it and you would face a huge disposal bill at the end.

Most commodities cost a fortune to store. If you are talking about futures it is not generally possible to look a long horizons.

Maybe double in three years. Why would an IDNer be interested in that kind of return, for the hassle and risk involved?

Yeah, we know about IDNs, but just for portfolio diversification or some fun. Everyday staring at idns is very boring.

Last edited by touchring; 3rd November 2006 at 04:03 PM..
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Old 3rd November 2006, 04:25 PM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Yeah, we know about IDNs, but just for portfolio diversification or some fun. Everyday staring at idns is very boring.

Fun, like being one of those investors in Gas Options in the UK, that ended up having to pay to hire tankers to take the stuff away and get rid of it, because delivery date had arrived and they couldn't offload their options. Still it is probably still better than having to take delivery of an order for November Hogs. Still if you not married and you have a large apartment, go for it!
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Old 3rd November 2006, 06:23 PM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

I know it sound like a lame answer but I think they could both be right. (Just on different time horizons). We all know commodities are cyclical, mainly because by the time everyone get product to market the demand has cooled causing the price to collapse. With Asia hitting a certain economic critical mass, even with all those bad loans the chinese tend to write during the boom portion of cycle and inevitable bust, the people have become more adept at effective business practices. So after we see weak housing slow demand for China's consumer goods and in turn China's demand for commodities (which accounted for a large part of the marginal demand during the boom) we will see further weakening of commodites prices and then when the bad loans have washed out, demand will pick up again and the supercycle will be trending higher (especially in Oil unless the US is able to start pimping Iraq).

Just my angle.

Armadillo
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Old 3rd November 2006, 07:06 PM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Armadillo
I know it sound like a lame answer but I think they could both be right. (Just on different time horizons). We all know commodities are cyclical, mainly because by the time everyone get product to market the demand has cooled causing the price to collapse. With Asia hitting a certain economic critical mass, even with all those bad loans the chinese tend to write during the boom portion of cycle and inevitable bust, the people have become more adept at effective business practices. So after we see weak housing slow demand for China's consumer goods and in turn China's demand for commodities (which accounted for a large part of the marginal demand during the boom) we will see further weakening of commodites prices and then when the bad loans have washed out, demand will pick up again and the supercycle will be trending higher (especially in Oil unless the US is able to start pimping Iraq).

Just my angle.

Armadillo

You been to China? The bubble in some cities is really bad, too many high end condos and offices. Government investing in office buildings - there's too much real estate development.

Here's a thread i found, where some travelling guy posted photos of some "more backward" 2nd or 3rd tier cities taken this year. At least 50% of the buildings are brand new and probably built in the last 5-6 years, another 10% is still in construction. Notice the people cycling and laborers carrying goods against the backdrop of shining buildings.

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=119252

Last edited by touchring; 3rd November 2006 at 07:21 PM..
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Old 3rd November 2006, 11:09 PM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

A bull and a bear and then add a statistician - the definitive way to get 4 different answers.
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Old 4th November 2006, 06:13 AM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Amazing pictures....reminds me of South Florida. Gonna be alot of banks owning shiny new buildings with noone in them...
My brother is an architect that designs all those new Whole Foods stores. I told him I think he needs to diversify since the slowdown will be hitting those types of overpriced goods.
Once demand comes back, commodities will be back on the run again though, since supply growth is still the limiting factor.

Armadillo
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Old 4th November 2006, 06:44 AM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
You been to China? The bubble in some cities is really bad, too many high end condos and offices. Government investing in office buildings - there's too much real estate development.

Here's a thread i found, where some travelling guy posted photos of some "more backward" 2nd or 3rd tier cities taken this year. At least 50% of the buildings are brand new and probably built in the last 5-6 years, another 10% is still in construction. Notice the people cycling and laborers carrying goods against the backdrop of shining buildings.

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=119252
Great pics! Impressive development. Unfortunately, I saw a few ascii domains advertised on buses and buildings, but no IDN.
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Old 4th November 2006, 09:53 AM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by touchring
Fish is better. Buy a 3 tons of tuna, keep in the freezer. In 20 year's time there will be no tuna left, then these will cost a million each.
Yummmmmmmm....20 year old tuna? Maybe whiskey instead
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Old 4th November 2006, 11:22 AM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Well CNNIC is now getting half its revenue through IDN so somebody must be buying them. Of course advertisers not be commissioned to promote them until after IE7 AU.
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Old 4th November 2006, 11:34 AM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Duck
Well CNNIC is now getting half its revenue through IDN so somebody must be buying them. Of course advertisers not be commissioned to promote them until after IE7 AU.
I am seeing a definated up turn in the "new" names popping up in the who.is.

Most regs are within the last 45 days. The fact that IDN are "now" available seems to be getting around.
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Old 4th November 2006, 11:52 AM
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Re: Jim Rogers and Stephen Roach on Commodities - Who is right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
Yummmmmmmm....20 year old tuna? Maybe whiskey instead
Yes best keep your assets liquid
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