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Originally Posted by bwhhisc
But in a parallel like that for ascii in 1997, there is still a bit of a wait for IDNs.
Hoping however that it is a short wait. I think development is good, especially as many can do
for it themselves and even to outsource site design the cost can be very reasonable.
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No doubt outsourcing is cheap, but project management and QC can't be source, and after development, traffic will not automatically flow in - one still needs to do SEO - even more Yahoo JP.
I would say that outsourcing development is only 30%-40% of the total work. Project management, and QC another 20%, and SEO and maintenance another 30%.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by bwhhisc
But in a parallel like that for ascii in 1997, there is still a bit of a wait for IDNs.
Hoping however that it is a short wait. I think development is good, especially as many can do
for it themselves and even to outsource site design the cost can be very reasonable.
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I don't believe the wait is short, i've been fighting with RD over timelines the whole of last year if you guys could remember, and it seems that even the most pessimistic of timelines proved to be too optimistic.
We now live in a economic peak and bullish environment, everyone (myself included
) is overly optimistic and lost the sense of reality.
Like the fact that last week, central banks pumped in nearly half a trillion dollars to support the world banks, even the most pessimistic of dooms day investment analysts like Marc Faber and Jim Rogers could not have anticipated such a desperate move at such an early stage.
To have a good gripe of reality, we now must examine the situation, both internet and general:
1. Post Sept 11, Feds pumped unlimited liquidity into US to support the war against terror.
2. US real estate boom because of the cheap money. European real estate like Spanish expanded even more.
3. PPC - Google created the PPC market and gave out revenue share aggressively to expand their marketshare. Google profits was rising rapidly in early days. They can afford to give adsense partners a bigger share.
4. Industralization of China and BPO boom in India gave rise to the commodity boom. Real estate boom in China cities especially, consumed a lot of steel and copper. It is said that half the world's construction cranes are in China.
5. Free trade led to strong growth in the US. Europeans invest heavily in US securities, CDOs, hedge funds, etc.
6. New wealth in gas, oil, commodities from Russia and the Middle East flowed into UK, fueling a housing boom.
7. US imports from China, Japan, Europe and balance of payment is achieved by heavy investments by Europeans in US real estate, investment funds, and China and Japan's investments in US treasury.
Over the next 5 years, will the factors 1 to 7 remain the same? Many things can happen, protectionism can kick in, and this brings the risk of dollar dumping. Miost chinese expect a financial crisis post Beijing Olympics. The Iran problem may worsen - Israel has set a Dec 31st dateline. The credit default rates will rise - this one even an IQ 80 guy will know by now. If america slows imports, the rest of the world will also suffer. China will suffer unemployment in the rural and the central govt will have to sell foreign assets including US government bonds to prevent social unrest.
All these may not be related to domains, but it does affect how long we must wait - i'm 100% sure. One can go without domains in bad times, prime domains are not a necessity. The days of ponzi is nearly over or going to be over. We're back to basics and domain prices will not rise like before because of flipping and Snap announcements or "market manipulation".
The consolation is that if you are invested in japanese, chinese, korean, or arabic names, at least you are in the better hands than the DNF guys.