Have you prepared 3 year's worth of renewals.

[touchring]

Some of you might be prepared, but for those who have not, I think it is time to ask yourself this question. Have you prepared for at least 3 year's* worth of renewals.

By now, it is clear, that the world economy is headed for trouble, USA will fall into recession by next year, housing will most likely fall at least 15% nationwide, no matter what the Feds do, UK will be in the same position in 12 mths to 18 mth's time, and China assuming poor don't revolt first like they now do in Burma, the bubble will still burst by the time of the Olympics, trade war will breakout when the democrats take over and home prices will fall maybe 80% :o, last Japan will also be in serious recession by then.

Amount to prepare in worst case scenario (PPC dries up):

100 names - 100 x 3 x 7.50 = $2250
500 names - 500 x 3 x 7.50 = $11250
1000 names - 1000 x 3 x 7.50 = $22500
2000 names - 2000 x 3x 7.50 = $45000

Actual amount = worst case x PPC ratio


*3 years is just a base estimate.

[burnsinternet]

My PPC, oddly enough was practically nonexistent in 2006 except for Cyrillic. Now it is actually starting to do well in 2008 in nearly every language (Korean is the exception).

Everyone needs to be prepared with their own lifeboat list. What would you save and what would you drop?

[Olney]

This is good to look at
Also breaking it down by month to see how much your portfolio should make in PPC, affiliate, or advertising to cover your portfolio cost.

At the bare minimum breaking even (for now) should be a goal. Whether it's developing 1 great site, to do parking, sales, or a number of small sites.

[Fka200]

Yep. Everyone needs to take this very seriously. I went a little overboard this year and am in a little screw-up myself. Hopefully can dig myself out, but I am trying my hardest to at least get out of debt and the domains renewed till 2009 at the earliest.

[burnsinternet]

Break even is a good goal right now.

[touchring]

What would you save and what would you drop?


Yes, this is the first thing to do. But works only if you park your names. Over the weekend, i did some house keeping, renewed some soon to expire names and parked some odd names i registered over the last 1 year.

btw, i read aboutt he 15th October rate raise, anyone knows what is the new rate for ND, Moniker and Dynadot and the deadline before the new rate sets in?

[jose]

We also should move all domains to the right registrar.

nets = Dynadot
coms = Moniker ?!
info =
org =
biz =

[Drewbert]

Perhaps to stave off a serious reduction in the number of registrations, Verisign might end up LOWERING the cost when they see demand drop?

[touchring]

Perhaps to stave off a serious reduction in the number of registrations, Verisign might end up LOWERING the cost when they see demand drop?



Inflation is now a huge problem, especially in developing countries. Apartments in Chinese cities are now reaching 25-30 years' income - can you imagine that, 30 years' income just to buy a 3 BR apartment?

You think paying 10 years income is a big problem in the UK, how about 30 years?? To buy a flat, it takes 2 generations - the parents life savings plus the couple working 30 years to pay off the mortgage.

[Silhouette]

Amount to prepare in worst case scenario (PPC dries up):

100 names - 100 x 3 x 7.50 = $2250
500 names - 500 x 3 x 7.50 = $11250
1000 names - 1000 x 3 x 7.50 = $22500
2000 names - 2000 x 3x 7.50 = $45000
(Not the worst case yet)

I always thought it was a max. of 7% annual-hike in the coming 4 years


$7.5 :: $8.00 :: $8.60
----------------------------
100 names: 750 + 800 + 860 = $2,410
500 names: 3750 + 4000 + 4300 = $12,050
1000 names: 7500 + 8000 +8600= $24,100
2000 names: 15000 + 16000 + 17200 = $48,200

"Under the settlement, ICANN allows VeriSign to renew its contract for management of the .com registry in 2012, with $6 from each domain registered going to ICANN. During the six years in between, VeriSign may raise domain registration fees by a maximum of 7 percent in four of those six years."


(I maybe wrong)

why worry? People here can sell just one name from their mighty portfolio and recoup their $48,200 instantly :D

[markits]

I usually do two-year renewal.

[touchring]

(Not the worst case yet)

I always thought it was a max. of 7% annual-hike in the coming 4 years


$7.5 :: $8.00 :: $8.60
----------------------------
100 names: 750 + 800 + 860 = $2,410
500 names: 3750 + 4000 + 4300 = $12,050
1000 names: 7500 + 8000 +8600= $24,100
2000 names: 15000 + 16000 + 17200 = $48,200

Thanks, this is more accurate calculation for the worst case scenario.




(I maybe wrong)

why worry? People here can sell just one name from their mighty portfolio and recoup their $48,200 instantly :D


We can't assume that the market is always liquid, and besides, many of us here are in for the long haul, though i must point out, there is no doubts about the long term prospects of IDNs.

Many things can happen in 2 or 3 years - we also need to consider opportunity costs, e.g. you eyed a big house a broker once occupied, it's on firesale now, but you need to put down 10%.

[Rubber Duck]

Liquidity has been a problem.

I think you can safely assume that this will radically change in the next 3 to 6 months.

Planning for 3 years renewals is ABSURD. If we have problems past 12 months, I will be junking much of the portfolio anyway. The thing every investor has to be able to is to face reality. The reality is that if there is not significant progress within 12 months, the potential of the IDN gambit is going to have to be drastically
downgraded.

I must stress this is NOT out central scenario. There must still be a remote possibility that IDN will flunk, but 2008 should confirm things one way or the other.

Thanks, this is more accurate calculation for the worst case scenario.





We can't assume that the market is always liquid, and besides, many of us here are in for the long haul, though i must point out, there is no doubts about the long term prospects of IDNs.

Many things can happen in 2 or 3 years - we also need to consider opportunity costs, e.g. you eyed a big house a broker once occupied, it's on firesale now, but you need to put down 10%.

[Drewbert]

I don't think this is about IDN flunking, its about the global economy going into meltdown and PPC revenues (or whatever) not being enough to cover reg fees.

IDN AND ASCII.

[touchring]

Planning for 3 years renewals is ABSURD. If we have problems past 12 months, I will be junking much of the portfolio anyway. The thing every investor has to be able to is to face reality.


Ok, to be fair it might be 2-years, depends on how much contingency you want to put in -- 1-year is already guaranteed as most of us here got to plan to renew the bulk of names over the next 4 to 5 mths.

I don't think this is about IDN flunking, its about the global economy going into meltdown and PPC revenues (or whatever) not being enough to cover reg fees.

IDN AND ASCII.


I must say that this is still a projection, the economy in the East (aside from Japan) is now still steaming ahead like there was no credit crunch or subprime.

[Drewbert]

>I must say that this is still a projection, the economy in the East (aside from Japan) is
>now still steaming ahead like there was no credit crunch or subprime.

Good news for certain IDN owners (once ie7 au finally pushes through) but for ASCII portfolio holders with 90% of their revenue coming from USA and 8% from Canada the future's not so bright.

[touchring]

>I must say that this is still a projection, the economy in the East (aside from Japan) is
>now still steaming ahead like there was no credit crunch or subprime.

Good news for certain IDN owners (once ie7 au finally pushes through) but for ASCII portfolio holders with 90% of their revenue coming from USA and 8% from Canada the future's not so bright.


Yes, for the time being, but if there were a crash in China, home prices won't come down 10% or 20% like in mature markets like America and the UK, but something like 80%.


Shanghai stock chart:

http://www.hkex.com.hk/csm/IndexMove/sh/000001.png

[Asiaplay]

Liquidity has been a problem.

If we have problems past 12 months, I will be junking much of the portfolio anyway.

Remember to give pass me the list of your deletes - hahaa... cheers, Asiaplay

[Rubber Duck]

Remember to give pass me the list of your deletes - hahaa... cheers, Asiaplay

Don't hold your breath. :p

[rhys]

global economic meltdown? yawn.

some forecasting models are not worth making, certainly not past the next 12 months.

anyhoo with any luck 2007 will close out with enough in the bank for 2 years worth of renewals.

[touchring]

anyhoo with any luck 2007 will close out with enough in the bank for 2 years worth of renewals.



Nice, are you still getting 2 days of renewals for 1 day of PPC right now?

I must check my japanese PPC again! :|

[Rubber Duck]

The vital piece of the puzzle you seem to be missing is companies' response to loss of turnover.

Do they cut cost costs? Yes, of course, but initially at least they will try to protect and rebuild their cash-flow and brands through intensive advertising. If times are tough, they will be looking for more bang per buck and that means innovation. It means the Internet.

GM may go to the wall, but they in the mean time their marketing department will go into overdrive. You may depend that means a lot of superficial changes to tired old cars, but believe me they will spend big bucks try to shift their junk into a saturated market.

[touchring]

The vital piece of the puzzle you seem to be missing is companies' response to loss of turnover.

Do they cut cost costs? Yes, of course, but initially at least they will try to protect and rebuild their cash-flow and brands through intensive advertising. If times are tough, they will be looking a bang per buck and that means innovation. It means the Internet.

GM may go to the wall, but they in the mean time their marketing department will go into overdrive. You may depend that means a lot of superficial changes to tired old cars, but believe me they will spend big bucks try to shift their junk into a saturated market.



The few of us here with enough PPC to cover renewals, like Rhys and Sarcle, have nothing to worry about. I am betting that any fall in PPC will be more than made up by the increase in direct traffic from IE7 eventually.

But, only if you got visible PPC in the first place!! For many of us, most or at least, part of our portfolio is in the RED, like me, my .TV and .CN, and .gongsi, i'll be lucky if PPC can cover more than 5% of their cost.


http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_1011244.shtml


News : International Last Updated: Sep 24th, 2007 - 07:47:07

US slump may accelerate switch to online advertising
By Finfacts Team
Sep 24, 2007, 07:26

Online advertising spending in the US is forecast is continue its strong growth even if a US economic downturn squeezes the advertising sector as a whole.

It is claimed today that pressure on companies to cut costs if the economy softens could even accelerate the switch in spending from traditional media to more targeted and measurable digital forms.

The Financial Times says that some of the US mortgage lenders embroiled in the recent lending crisis have stepped up online spending, attracted by the ability to entice people to click on ads.

“If marketing budgets shrink, and they are often the first to be cut in a downturn, digital will still continue to grow,” Eric Bader, managing director of digital at MediaVest, told the FT. “The focus will be on advertising that can be measured for effectiveness, and online will gain share relative to television, newspapers or radio.”

Online is the fastest-growing advertising sector, and may reach over $20bn this year, just over 7% of the total $285bn US advertising market.

A IAB/PwC study last June estimated that in a total of three European countries, the web’s share of advertising expenditure exceeded 10% in 2006. These were the UK, the Netherlands and Denmark. Ireland's share of web advertising is estimated to be in the range 2.5%-3.5%.

Mortgage companies including Countrywide Financial Corp. and IAC/InterActiveCorp's LendingTree Inc. haven't cut spending much and are moving ads to the web from print and TV, analyst Jeffrey Lindsay of Sanford Bernstein said. A 50% drop in ads for loans would cut Google and Yahoo's profit by 1% to 3%.

"Under economic pressure, advertisers favor online because it's a lot cheaper, it's measurable and it gives a higher return on investment," Lindsay said. Almost all of Yahoo's second- quarter growth in display advertising came from mortgage ads, he estimated. "The biggest beneficiary so far has been Yahoo."

US mortgage companies spent $755 million on Web ads in the year ended June 30th, or about 3.4% of the US online ad market, Sanford Bernstein said. The report doesn't cover third-quarter spending.

Countrywide, America's top mortgage lender, increased its online spending to 55% of its ad budget in the second quarter from 21% a year ago, Lindsay said.

In related news, US television networks are reported to believe they have found the business model needed to profit in the digital age – streaming their hit shows over the internet as opposed to selling them to consumers as digital downloads.

This season they are gearing up to stream unprecedented amounts of programming with embedded advertisements on their own websites and via those of distribution partners.

They are embracing streaming video after recent experiments eased concerns that it would cannibalise traditional broadcast audiences and undermine business models. Instead, many TV executives are confident that putting programmes online will build greater awareness among consumers and increase audiences. The networks have also been encouraged by advertisers, who are rapidly shifting their budgets to the internet to reach young consumers.

[555]

I did 2 deals involving idns in the past year...i can't give too much info but each was a real DEAL...not a quick 'flip' for 5,10 or 30k.

instead of waiting for anything...some here are holding prime real estate...they know it...they bought it for a reason...for a vision of what will be in this specific domain and how...etc etc

Look for capable business people...explain it right..no stories...dont make it nothing but what it is...and you may be surprised how quick they want in.

And if any of the senior members prefer...i will GLADLY close on prices with you with a time stamp...a price you will be very happy to sell for...but i need the 60 days to make it happen or move on.

PM/Email with any questions