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View Full Version : Make sure you have enough cash to renew until 2011 (at least)


touchring
25th October 2008, 10:19 AM
I know a few of you have been doing this, i'm also doing this, raising cash by selling good names. I also know a few of you might need some reminder that names have to be renewed every year.

alexd
25th October 2008, 10:24 AM
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but is there anything specifically planned to happen in 2011 ??

Alex

yanni
25th October 2008, 10:26 AM
We'll have full penetration by then :D

dnnames
25th October 2008, 10:28 AM
Hahaha hopefully. It'll take at least that long. Remember to renew guys!

blackops
25th October 2008, 10:32 AM
We'll have full penetration by then :D

Ooh, vicar!

But, yes, it's a good point. It will take a while before the IDN market reaches anything like 'maturity'. We are now seeing some early bargains being had in .cn, particularly, for example <net>.cn at $7K. But the 'real' valuations aren't far away now.. :-)

touchring
25th October 2008, 10:37 AM
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but is there anything specifically planned to happen in 2011 ??

Alex


I expect Microsoft to make IE7 upgrade compulsory by then.

Of course, you'll never know what Bill will do. He's getting senile, would rather firefox and chrome take away his marketshare then upgrade his dinosaur browser.

Spot on Yanni! lol

Rubber Duck
25th October 2008, 11:09 AM
Well, yes everyone should do that but strategies will vary. If it takes anything like that amount of time, we will ditch some of the more mediocre stuff. A good deal of ours is already renewed into 2010 anyway. Selling a few along the way is an option that is always open, but the sooner you do that the lower the prices are likely to be, so it makes sense to have a reasonable buffer and hold your nerve.

Cut down your costs is another possible way to go. So, I have just received my delivery of thermal underwear. This should help reduce the gas bills.

Kidding actually, been freezing in the office where 80% of the people have been moved out, so it is a bit like an empty barn. Well you can imagine how keen management are to heat that space that used to be mainly heated by computers and people. Anyway, I got around to thinking about the problem and concluded that coldness is largely due to the metabolism shutting down because I am dieting, even though the weight isn't coming down as fast as I would like.

Anyway, my problem is that logically the colder you are the more calories you are losing, right? Well, no maybe things are not quite that simple. If you think about it air-conditioning is a lot more expensive than heating, so I am theorizing that metabolic rate might actually be raised by keeping warmer. Now that sounds like a win-win situation. It seems that at rest heart rate might be a key indicator of metabolic rate, so keeping the body warm and keeping the blood circulating might be a lot more effective then sitting around in the cold.

Tried doing some research on the Internet but drew a blank. All I could find was thermal suits for intense cardio-workouts. Like they are ever going to work! All that they will do is make you reach maximum heart rate at a lower work rates. But they do seem to have quite a bit of marketing money behind them so they should sell well. :)

Rubber Duck
25th October 2008, 11:20 AM
We'll have full penetration by then :D

At times it feels like we have been getting full penetration from a lot of different sources.

Each to his own, I guess, but I am not sure I like sex that much. :p

Miguel
25th October 2008, 03:22 PM
It ain't a slow march.
The dn prices spiked precipitously in '98

touchring
25th October 2008, 03:28 PM
It ain't a slow march.
The dn prices spiked precipitously in '98


If you refer to the chart:

http://www.allaboutmarketresearch.com/internet.htm

The Internet user population exploded in 1998, in 1997, it was a pathetic 70 million (as compared to today's 1.4 billion).

The IDN market today, is at this stage:-

December, 1994 -> sorry, no stats on that chart.

bwhhisc
25th October 2008, 03:32 PM
Seems to be growing by 50-75 million a quarter. Wonder how long it can keep that pace up. Do they publish a graph of this growth?

touchring
25th October 2008, 04:22 PM
Seems to be growing by 50-75 million a quarter. Wonder how long it can keep that pace up. Do they publish a graph of this growth?


i suspect it includes playing internet games at the cybercafe.

Drewbert
25th October 2008, 05:42 PM
Obviously you want to pay your last renewal in 2011, because 2012 is when the world ends. No use wasting money on renewals to 2013 and beyond.

phio
25th October 2008, 06:15 PM
I plan to be standing on one of the Mayan temples late December 2012. :)

By then the type-ins will cover renewals....

Rubber Duck
25th October 2008, 06:23 PM
For those still looking to get in, it will come as a massive shock.

One day they will be sitting around on their pussy waiting for an opening. Next day prices will spike and it will be game over. Prices out of reach for the rest of eternity.

I you want proof of how unpredictable these things are, just ask all those who ridiculed my predictions about the Stock Markets.

bwhhisc
25th October 2008, 08:49 PM
Obviously you want to pay your last renewal in 2011, because 2012 is when the world ends. No use wasting money on renewals to 2013 and beyond.

ROTFLMOL
IMO get yourself a year ahead on renewals and invest the rest in buying more IDNs while you can get them at reg fee
or deals thru other members that are selling.

Rubber Duck
25th October 2008, 09:10 PM
ROTFLMOL
IMO get yourself a year ahead on renewals and invest the rest in buying more IDNs while you can get them at reg fee
or deals thru other members that are selling.

Absolutely right. If your portfolio is not breaking even or sellable in 12 months, then time to re-evaluate. Some of you have registered a lot of crap. I guess we all did. I like to think I cleared out most of ours, but I guess we all make wrong calls sometimes. This year I just haven't had the time to go through everything again, so we just renewed the lot.

dnnames
25th October 2008, 10:16 PM
I find it so difficult sifting through the names though. You have spent time and effort registering them in the first place, and it is so disheartening to have to decide that 5-10% of the portfolio is probably worthless, or would just break even. Sigh.

Asiaplay
26th October 2008, 05:00 AM
... Cut down your costs is another possible way to go. So, I have just received my delivery of thermal underwear. This should help reduce the gas bills..."

Cracking me up... now I know who must own the thermal underwear IDNs - lol
Does seem a shame to have to hide your g-string, for a few more IDNs though Rubberduck (umm guess why others in the forum live in Thailand perhaps)... haha ;)

Cheers - Asiaplay

Rubber Duck
26th October 2008, 08:08 AM
Cracking me up... now I know who must own the thermal underwear IDNs - lol
Does seem a shame to have to hide your g-string, for a few more IDNs though Rubberduck (umm guess why others in the forum live in Thailand perhaps)... haha ;)

Cheers - Asiaplay

Yeah, Thailand might be a neater solution.

Actually, my idea is to Spring and Autumn in Czech Republic, go back to my native Dorset in summer and winter in the Canaries.

Miguel
26th October 2008, 04:02 PM
I was running web seminars in the mid-90s. And suddenly IT managers started begging me to do a shtick or two at their offices.
The charts we see in this thread don't tell the whole story. There was a qualitative jump in the folks perception. Domain prices didn't rise slowly. They jumped!

Asiaplay
26th October 2008, 04:47 PM
Yeah, Thailand might be a neater solution.

Actually, my idea is to Spring and Autumn in Czech Republic, go back to my native Dorset in summer and winter in the Canaries.

Nice option as well - agree... :) - cheers, Asiaplay

sbe18
26th October 2008, 07:01 PM
ok.......I had my 2 cups of coffee....
ready for my Sunday am rant.....
*******

Market perceptions can change quickly in each nation ....
8% down then 10% up.....then 5% down......
the last 3 weeks have been horrific for lots of friends of mine...
they never listened to my advice to diversify beyond their house and US stocks...
***r



Although China and Japan have very high savings rates...

Each nation has a different perspective of their nation's currency.
The yen is 94 to the dollar...and is traded freely.

the yuan is tightly controlled by the govt.

ascii dot cn's at 14 cents were pounded by spammers, typosquatters, and cybersquatters....
IDN's were often ridiculed by extremely well -off, and highly educated Chinese businessmen to me...'The Net was build by the Americans, they will never let us or the Russians, or the French have a say in running it or have our language really work ..."

No faith to learn or to realize that a 5000 year old language would find a way to be used properly....

I heard this from Oxford trained Indian businessmen as well....
"The net in India will always be English...period..."
Huh ?
99% of Hindi speakers SMS in Hindi in India...
that would include the 25% or higher fluent in English...

SMS in China,Japan, and Korea is 100% native language...

IM'ing and Chatting via mobile phones on TCP/IP via 3G or wifi is native language.....

so a DNS record can't be triangulated (hidden via a brower location bar ?)

I have been speaking with some of my classmates who are still in NY...
(still employed in finance for the moment ..grin)


Several are German....
they are saying that the German IDN market is bifurcated ....

great names are steady or rising in value as before.....

poor or mediocre names have plummetted since their PPC with Sedo has dried up , no one wants to buy them for that reason..nor do they want to buy a name that is poor for development....

And so this will be true for all of us as well in my opinion....


Transparency is now happening for all of the script and Asian character oriented IDN's....

Is a certain name 5000 or 50,000 ...of course it depends on a number of factors...

so have $50,000 values fallen to $5000 or have some decided to sell really great names for $5000 because they need cash for something or more capital for more names.......

who knows....


what I see happening is more selling and more buying.....and that is a good thing......

for the 14 cent dot CN owners.......I am not sad one tear....

for the ASCII dot com owners of garbage ......not one tear.....

The US is about to endure the difficulty that the UK went through as its colonial economic model collapsed and unwound.

China with $2 trillion in reserves wants to sit at the table of NY and London now....

The unipolar financial world ended in the last 45 days...
Some type of multipolar world of China - US......then EU/ Japan/ Brazil/India/ is going to emerge as a new financial order...

I think that Renault-Nissan buying GM or Chrysler or both , may be the first deal of this magnitude...
The Chinese are still angry at the bullshit / fake outrage that killed the Unocal deal a few years ago......
They will not tolerate that bullshit a second time, now that AIG etc....have vanished....

*******
I think Chinese finance types are going to get pitched to buy everything...
US stuff and Chinese stuff....

It should be interesting to see what they want to buy a little more risky than US treasuries ?????






end of rant.....

(grin)

Steve

Miguel
26th October 2008, 08:07 PM
Rant from this side of the lake

You folks from the Continent always underestimated the Yankees.
When you started those two ugly wars we had to come & save your arses. We financed your recovery. We opened our markets to your useless products. Unlike your EU we can print money. Tons of it. We'll print $10 Trillion and we'll shtup it up your & Arab & Russian & Japanese & Chinese throats.

Play ball!
Fasten your seatbelts...

Rubber Duck
26th October 2008, 08:09 PM
Well history will tell us that was no rant. That was highly objective analysis, even if it did err a little on the cautious side. :)

Rubber Duck
26th October 2008, 08:12 PM
Rant from this side of the lake

You folks from the Continent always underestimated the Yankees.
When you started those two ugly wars we had to come & save your arses. We financed your recovery. We opened our markets to your useless products. Unlike your EU we can print money. Tons of it. We'll print $10 Trillion and we'll shtup it up your & Arab & Russian & Japanese & Chinese throats.

Play ball!
Fasten your seatbelts...

The reason the EU are reluctant to print money is because the Germans tried it big time once before.

But you are right. Inflating the debt away is the only solution, but you'll probably end up with an economy about the size of Shandong.

alpha
26th October 2008, 10:21 PM
Rant from this side of the lake

You folks from the Continent always underestimated the Yankees.
When you started those two ugly wars we had to come & save your arses. We financed your recovery.

errrm actually...

The "Yankees" only waded in after Pearl Harbour was hit
and as for financing it.. LMAO.. we've been paying for it ever since..

article from 2006: The final payment of £45m will be made by the 31 December, meeting a 1945 obligation to repay the debt in full.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4970720.stm

sbe18
26th October 2008, 10:33 PM
with regard to the meltdown...

Printing money and selling more 10 year/ 30 Treasuries is not the same.

If prices of Treasuries stay relatively high , and yields very very low...then
this is not inflationary...

Until the Chinese let the yuan float sometime in the next 10 years...the dollar is going to remain the world's reserve currency...
OPEC is not looking happily to switch to the euro or the yen in the last 2 months.....like they used to threaten every so often last summer... huh ??
now that oil has fallen from 140 to below 70...

8000 US banks , 7000 are going to go away....
300,000 more finance sector jobs have to vanish...
only 200,000 have so far this year, generally in NY/NJ/Conn in the US

NYC, London, and other moneycenter cities...will have the same sector issues for a least a year in terms of job loss...

not dissimilar to the S and L / RTC debacle of 20 years ago...

80% of hedge funds world wide...not just US are going to go away.

All banks, all hedge funds , all private equity funds...
any large entity that borrows short and lends long (any debt greater than a year)
.....is going to be regulated by
a merged SEC/ FDIC/Commodities entity....in every developed country..

effectively all banks and hedge funds are going to be treated the same if they are doing the same types of transactions....

the days of 10 agencies eyeing 10 pieces of international finance separately are completely over....

Now that the FED and Treasury own Lehman's positions/ AIG's/ and Bear Stearns....they have front row seats for the daily trading of commodities, swaps, debt, and equities.....
there is not hovering in the background anymore....

So the only unregulated finance market at this point is the VC market and the angel finance market....
I can't see that changing....but I think pension funds are going to stop funding the bottom half of the VC funds....who have never had an amazing IPO in 5 years ???? and have had miserable returns because of M&A 's not IPO's.

Now that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are bank holding companies at 20:1 or lower and not 33:1 or higher......the model of investment banking of the last 30 years has vanished...

M&A with new debt doesn't exist until Jan 09 until the banks kind of know which banks get to stay around with Federal overview for debt and credit swaps...

the new frontier of massive finance is govt project finance.....
more airports in China....more subways...
roads /airports ...India.. ...subways here too......to prevent massively more terrible traffic..


massive infrastructure of Africa ...ignored by the US and EU...but
the Chinese are the new dealmakers of Africa....not the US...
I think the Africans are in for a rough ride with the Chinese too...
The old 'non-aligned' political spin from the Chinese is completely BS, and everyone knows it..


Leveraged buyouts by private equity is the next shoe to drop ...
if banks can't lend to each overnight....
all of the PE deals will not be able to re-financed regardless of the fact that rates may be lower....the debtholders are going to take back the companies and wipe out the high flyer PE shareholders....

deleveraging does have winners....over time and eventually...
it is the shareholders that buy a company's new shares after the bankruptcy is over by degree of a court.......
or smart bondholders that can endure the length of proceedings while lawyers bleed them also...they become new shareholders also...

firing overpaid management that failed....is messy, but it is happening...
board members generally hate being sued over and over...but especially during BK, being sued after poor M& A's is different...almost standard in a way...


Asset price declines are not tied to deleveraging...
asset prices are tied to demand/supply .....

I think we are now going through a phase of IDN asset discovery and IDN price discovery at the same time....

thousands if not millions will be extremely excited to discover IDN's next year after Cairo and the ICANN board final go for fast track...

If you are engaged with a potential buyer that believes in the intangible value or branding value of a name, then you may have to ask a really hard question of yourself...

If you believe a name is worth 100,000 let's say....

you may have to say no to several offers of 10,000....or even 50,000

I am preparing myself to make a lot of mistakes on this score...
because I think my Bell curve of valuations across languages over the next 36 months is going to be very weird....

who knows.....if ecommerce or ad type names or both will be opportunities as IDN's at the same time...across languages and across nations...
who knows...

Korea and German have been stable for 2 to 3 years so far...and no panic selling is evident in those 2 sectors....

I am in the IDN market for the very long haul....10 years plus...
will people always buy and flip.....sure....
that is what makes transparent and fluid markets great....

Will our market here at IDNF change after Cairo ?
It seems so to me...

I just think that the 'smartest guys in the room' screwed up Enron, and the US credit markets....
I think the 'smartest guys' in a dozen languages so to speak...missed the chance to buy really really cheap...or to hand reg.

they can buy from me, when they have a price that I am willing to consider..

but buying great names at x,xxx or xx,xxx is amazingly cheap....for medium to big companies...even ones that are in trouble....

marketing and ad budgets don't disappear......
in most cases today...$ is shifting from TV/ newspaper to online...

knowing that xxx,xxx is the value within their own business networks or for branding that research will indicate for them that they need to buy IDN's for SEO, and abandon poor Anglicized native language URL's...

and so it goes....

(last rant from the states side today...) :cool:


Steve






Steve....

Drewbert
27th October 2008, 12:42 AM
Rant from this side of the lake


When you started those two ugly wars we had to come & save your arses.

Just noting that the last 2 wars where you had major commonwealth forces by your side, you won.

What have you been doing since WWII?

And I hope you're not whining about all that gas turbine, rocket, and nuclear tech you got for free either.

Drewbert
24th November 2008, 07:13 AM
I plan to be standing on one of the Mayan temples late December 2012. :)

By then the type-ins will cover renewals....

http://punditkitchen.com/2008/11/06/political-pictures-sarah-palin-mayans/