How had the stockmarket crash affected your IDN investment?

[kenne]

From my personal experience, stockmarket crash definitely had an effect on my IDN investment decisions. Not sure whether this is the case w/ you guys as well.

[Rubber Duck]

Well the less you seen this coming the more you will be shocked about it. Which is why I was banging on about it over a year ago.

However, even I did not manage to predict America's apparent ability to carry on as though nothing was happening whilst their suppliers got maelstromed in a shit storm.

From here on in it depends on you outlook for the dollar. You have to decide whether:

1) It is the World's reserve currency and the only safe place to put your money in a crisis.

2) It is just a huge pile of worthless IOUs.

Those geniuses on Wall Street are going with (1) for the moment, but they have been wrong before. ;)

[bwhhisc]

The bigger issue IMO is lack of available commercial credit that is going to put the hurting on business for the next few years.
Recovery is going to take an unpredictable amount of time, probably 5-10 years, but even then its a whole new economic ballgame
from this point forward and that in itself has a lot of sorting out as to how trust and collateral will be redefined.

[Rubber Duck]

The bigger issue IMO is lack of available commercial credit that is going to put the hurting on business for the next few years.
Recovery is going to take an unpredictable amount of time, probably 5-10 years, but even then its a whole new economic ballgame
from this point forward and that in itself has a lot of sorting out as to how trust and collateral will be redefined.

Exactly, until the de-leveraging is substantially complete, it is difficult for banks to make sensible commercial decision. But the dollars value also impacts on this when you look at the wider international picture.

The problem for US businesses and consumers is that there are much more credit worthy borrowers out there. Many are not heavily indebted because traditionally they have not had access to unlimited credit. When this becomes apparent to all but the totally bigoted there will be a severe outflow of capital from the US which will bring the dollar to its knees.

I think we are going to be looking at a more protectionist America, possibly with limitation on capital outflows. That would seem to fit closely with Democratic ideology. In the short-term of course it will mean less pain. In the long-term it will leave the US as an also ran.

[later777]

I actually bought few hundreds idns more.It surely beats worthless stocks.

[Rubber Duck]

I actually bought few hundreds idns more.It surely beats worthless stocks.

Well if the traffic ever increases at anything like the rate that Google indexation of my Hindi terms has, then you will be glad you didn't listen to the chattering classes at Namepros. Half these forums just exist so they can convince each other that they are not totally stupid. And a pretty unconvincing job they make of it. I just wish some of them had been watching Top Gear tonight. Clarkeson's comments on American Sport Cars was epic. Likened the handling of one of them to getting a Wardrobe down a fire escape.

[kenne]

For me it was somewhat drastic. Lesson 1: I should have bought/sold more IDNs earlier instead of putting money into the stock market. Lesson 2: Missing the Russian boat is the second mistake. Luckily, I do have some traffic domains that should help me stay in the game somewhat till things get better.

[npcomplete]

I voted "no effect" since I bailed early on the market at 14,000 (dow), and skipped that part where it went down.

[touchring]

lack of time is the problem.

[Rubber Duck]

lack of time is the problem.

Well, I don't suppose many on here are going to put their hands up and admit they lost their bottle. ;)

[kenne]

2008 was unprecedented (in my living memory) because almost all the investments: stocks, bonds, munis, commodities, international lost value from 20%-90%, Chinese IDNs, except US treasury/CDs and Russian/turkish/thai IDNs apparently.

Unless you stayed out of market altogether, you got hit. So I'm not surprised that 50% of responders answered "some effect", only a little surprised that not more...

[jose]

You can still get out NOW. I don't have a good felling for January...

[Rubber Duck]

2008 was unprecedented (in my living memory) because almost all the investments: stocks, bonds, munis, commodities, international lost value from 20%-90%, Chinese IDNs, except US treasury/CDs and Russian/turkish/thai IDNs apparently.

Unless you stayed out of market altogether, you got hit. So I'm not surprised that 50% of responders answered "some effect", only a little surprised that not more...

You cannot really count IDNs, they were always an illiquid asset that nobody was really expecting to shift and very difficult to value.

If any of you had listened to me at the time, then rest was entirely predictable.

Anyway, if you not listening yet, it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. The Dow is gonig South and so is the dollar, and if you don't believe, actually try to listen to what Obama is trying to tell you! He is not inviting anyone on a Sunday School Picnic here!

[Drewbert]

Yup.

They're going to print MORE money AND cut taxes.

"Do the Math" as they say in the USA.

[jose]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3114/3141139302_45d5b3b0a6_o.jpg

[kenne]

Hilarious Jose. Those advising me of getting out, you may be right. but i, like lots of people, hate to sell when there's an unrealized loss, thereby realizing it; instead we prefer sitting on our hands, hoping for any bounce to get out. In this way, stocks are different from domains. When domains drops in value, we are motivated to get rid of it to avoid the renewal fees.

As to RD's comment on dollar's value to drop. In the short term, I really can't see anything else is preferred over the dollar. But in the long term (3+ years), I don't know, as I have no confidence in anything what this gov will do. I've had 8 years of disgust, may well be in for more.

[touchring]

Hilarious Jose. Those advising me of getting out, you may be right. but i, like lots of people, hate to sell when there's an unrealized loss, thereby realizing it; instead we prefer sitting on our hands, hoping for any bounce to get out. In this way, stocks are different from domains. When domains drops in value, we are motivated to get rid of it to avoid the renewal fees.

As to RD's comment on dollar's value to drop. In the short term, I really can't see anything else is preferred over the dollar. But in the long term (3+ years), I don't know, as I have no confidence in anything what this gov will do. I've had 8 years of disgust, may well be in for more.


it was only 6 mths ago that nothing is preferred over barrels of oil.

i see the dollar rise as a bear rally.

[Rubber Duck]

As to RD's comment on dollar's value to drop. In the short term, I really can't see anything else is preferred over the dollar. But in the long term (3+ years), I don't know, as I have no confidence in anything what this gov will do. I've had 8 years of disgust, may well be in for more.

Kenne, you are so wrong. The dollar is only riding on the misconceptions of people like you. Like Drewbert said, "Do the Math." Until then stay out the speculating game or you will end up losing your shirt.

Each currency in total is only worth the what the economy that backs it is worth. The more of each currency you make the less each unit is worth. The US economy is shrinking faster than any point in its history and they are printing money like there is no tomorrow. The dollar is on a one way trip to the dumpster. The only reason it is high is for some daft reason, most people still think it is a safe haven, simply because historically it always has been. People like you invest on sentiment. In the very short-term following the herd works, but don't follow them off a cliff.

The dollar will continue to appreciate until people like you realize that the dollar is Ponzi scheme like no other. Even Madoff could not even dream of the scale of this deception.

[kenne]

Dollar is a ponzi scheme, but in which other scheme can I put my "money"? As the whole market came down, I'm left with no other choice, except Russian/Thai/Turkish IDNs and other traffic IDNs, but these as you pointed out are illiquid, not like I can get in anytime I want unless i'm willing to pay significant premium, or get out anytime unless I'm willing to lose money.

[Rubber Duck]

Dollar is a ponzi scheme, but in which other scheme can I put my "money"? As the whole market came down, I'm left with no other choice, except Russian/Thai/Turkish IDNs and other traffic IDNs, but these as you pointed out are illiquid, not like I can get in anytime I want unless i'm willing to pay significant premium, or get out anytime unless I'm willing to lose money.

You can invest in non-dollar denominated stocks or bonds anytime you like. This is why the dollar is so strong at the moment. Most investors understand jack shit about anything. When they gradually start to work things out then the dollar will collapse. At your current rate of understanding, it looks like you will be holding the baby.

[kenne]

Of all the currencies in the world, I only have direct experience with US dollar. I know that the businesses are laying people off, cutting pay and bonuses, these trends mean immediate deflation. Deflation may turn into hyperinflation in a few years time, I'll be on the ground to notice the switch and do something about it. With other currencies in the world, I'm likely to learn that they went up and then plunged a few months too late, from the news media (of all things). Thanks but no thanks!

There are definitely tones of protectionism in Obama's new plan, likely to trigger protectionistic reactions from its trade partners. And Russia still thinks it was 2007, tries to wield its fragile monopoly power over gas reserviors; if Russia wins, more protectionism will arise; if Russia loses, it will realize that its economical power is nil, and then it will do what Russia always does, start blaming everyone else and resort to military resources. A world in recession, resorting to protectionistic measures, with unstable military superpowers habitually blaming everyone else, sounds familiar?

[Rubber Duck]

Well, if you stick with the dollar you will lose. Savers have to be punished to rescue borrowers whether or not their is an implosion relative to the rest of the World. In a couple of years time brother? Sorry, you have already got it wrong. The time to act was probably yesterday.

As for social cohesion. You just wait and see how socially cohesive the US really is when the chips are down. You already have one of the highest homicide rates in the World.

Of all the currencies in the world, I only have direct experience with US dollar. I know that the businesses are laying people off, cutting pay and bonuses, these trends mean immediate deflation. Deflation may turn into hyperinflation in a few years time, I'll be on the ground to notice the switch and do something about it. With other currencies in the world, I'm likely to learn that they went up and then plunged a few months too late, from the news media (of all things). Thanks but no thanks!

There are definitely tones of protectionism in Obama's new plan, likely to trigger protectionistic reactions from its trade partners. And Russia still thinks it was 2007, tries to wield its fragile monopoly power over gas reserviors; if Russia wins, more protectionism will arise; if Russia loses, it will realize that its economical power is nil, and then it will do what Russia always does, start blaming everyone else and resort to military resources. A world in recession, resorting to protectionistic measures, with unstable military superpowers habitually blaming everyone else, sounds familiar?

[Drewbert]

"with unstable military superpowers habitually blaming everyone else, sounds familiar?"

Sound's like the guys that invaded Iraq?

[kenne]

"blaming everyone else"
half check, since Iraq really has nothing to do with 9/11. Bush set a dangerous precedent of preemptive war, since it's a precedent, it can't be everyone else.

At least he didn't do it during a serious downtown (not that he's not an A*H*). Nasdaq tanked in 2001, but blue chips and bonds were standing up nicely at the time.

My point is: this is ugly, more ugly than I've ever seen. And it will spread.

[Rubber Duck]

"blaming everyone else"
half check, since Iraq really has nothing to do with 9/11. Bush set a dangerous precedent of preemptive war, since it's a precedent, it can't be everyone else.

At least he didn't do it during a serious downtown (not that he's not an A*H*). Nasdaq tanked in 2001, but blue chips and bonds were standing up nicely at the time.

My point is: this is ugly, more ugly than I've ever seen. And it will spread.

Yes, it will spread to a degree but until now America has behaved as though somehow it is everybody else's problem.

The idea that America has the best workforce in the World is just an Urban myth. What Bush has achieved by an large is to make a Fat, Indolent, Wasteful and Indebted society, even more Fat, Indolent, Wasteful and indebted. Even now, with Obama, the emphasis is on pampering the populous. Amongst other things the nation needs a reality check.

As for overseas investment, that is where the opportunities lie. However, by and large most US Corporates and individual are liquidating sound investment abroad to plug up black holes in balance sheets at home. Recipe for disaster. Once you are all holding nothing but dollars, we are finally going to be asking what exactly is backing that paper. I am afraid there is going to be a grim silence.