Britain faces bankruptcy?

[later777]

I kind of split on this. I think the financial turmoil just has started and many will face gloom and doom times -including us, idners. Obvously, I don't want it. But it's kind of a poetic justice, really. As far as Britain, call me unreasonable but Britain eventually would have to pay for all that crap that it had brought to the World so may be it's karma..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/18/recession-banking

[Drewbert]

It's not going to get any better anywhere until they open up all the balance sheets, stop the lies, and jail the fraudsters and the people in government who were in charge of regulation but didn't regulate.

Clean slate.

Or start up some FRESH banks under new regulations who only loan out to people who can afford to pay, and let the old ones suffocate in their own feces.

[domainguru]

If you wanted to doom every country that had brought crap into the world, we'd be left with a UN with no countries left in it.

[later777]

Not every country. GB is just my favorite:p the list of what they done to this world to shape it is staggering. Most of the problems in this world in one way or another are linked to GB. May of this is because they are such high profile, true. But for example Spain was robbing the third world not less then GB but you can't really blame them for much. There is something about the way Brits act- a total disregard of others.... India,China, Middle East... C'mon... It's good for them to taste their own medicine once in a while.

[kenne]

Britain will probably go bankrupt. But before it, Spain and a whole lot of other countries will probably go bankrupt too. Maybe even Russia and the USA (which is what really worries me).

As for karma. My dad will always be grateful to the Brits because he was one of those who swam shark-infested waters to Hong Kong during the cultural revolution; my dad survived and prospered. His friend defected across the nearest border; he ended up in North Korea and got executed. Britain and its colonies have offered a beacon of freedom for people like my dad for a hundred years. Maybe the Brits don't give a d*** really, but my dad would give a lot of karma points for that.

[later777]

Your dad is grateful to Brits... I have no problem with that. It was good he got awayand had a good life. But if you think of how many people have their life ruined because of british crown lust for power and gold-here you have a problem. I, BTW, have no problem with Mao cultural revolution. It killed a lot of people but why? Because Brits transformed China into country of opium junkies to rob her freely. That was a way to turn the country around albeit a cruel one. But look at China now.... Want to google "opium wars"?

[kenne]

The British parliament had a lively debate before going into Opium war and voted for it with a low margin. Those voting "no" voted their conscience, they got karma point; those voting "yes" voted their interests and I do not blame them for being human.

Yes opium ruined lives but the Brits didn't exactly force the addiction on opium users. Just like today, Americans should fix their own drug addiction before they blame Mexicans and Columbians. And mexicans and columbians should stop blaming america for drug gangs ravaging their own countries.

That's called free will. A lot of people claimed being perfect moral human beings (French revolutionists, communists, nazies, fundamentalists of every ilk even today), well they turned out to be mostly garbage. Brits and Americans are no exceptions, and rarely claimed to be.

[Rubber Duck]

Yes, but there is so much shit being written.

Lloyds has been battered since the combined Lloyds TSB and HBOS banks listed on Monday. Analysts at Merrill Lynch estimated the bank required £10bn of extra capital, saying its core tier 1 ratio, a key measure of its financial strength, could be just 6.2pc at the end of 2008, “which is not enough of a cushion to withstand the coming wave of bad debts”, according to the note.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4304099/Barclays-tumbles-as-bank-shares-drag-down-FTSE.html

Why does anyone actually take opinions from these people. Merril Lynch it would seem is in the process of going bust twice in less than six months!

[bwhhisc]

Bankers, Stockbrokers, Real Estate Companies, Mortage Companies, Insurance companies....worldwide they played a reckless game while the governments turned a blind eye. The players behind this mess US included deserve a trial and consideration of stripping of any personal gains, if not some hard time.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4291999/Public-anger-growing-at-irresponsible-banks.html

PUBLIC ANGER GROWING AT "IRRESPONSIBLE" BANKS
By Rosa Prince, Political Correspondent
Last Updated: 11:08PM GMT 19 Jan 2009

Public anger over the "irresponsible" lending of Britain's banks intensified as MPs and unions criticised their conduct and even Gordon Brown felt compelled to express his anger as the latest bail-out package was announced. Mr Brown said that he was particularly 'angry' at the record losses racked up by the Royal Bank of Scotland, and the large write-offs of foreign debt. Mr Brown admitted that taxpayers were justified at feeling angry that billions of pounds worth of their cash was being used to support the banks as a result of their behaviour.

As the rescue package was unveiled in the Commons, MPs from across the House condemned their excesses and called for greater constraints in future in return for the Government’s help. Frank Dobson, a former Health Minister, said these "severe constraints" should encompass the pay and bonuses of bank bosses, adding that the measures unveiled by Alistair Darling would be acceptable to the public only if they were accompanied by "strict national and international regulation" to prevent further economic catastrophes.
Rob Marris, Labour MP for Wolverhampton South West, added that the banks had “made a right mess of things”. Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, urged the Chancellor to ensure that the injection of public cash was not "good money going after bad’’.

And John McFall, Labour chair of the Commons Treasury Select Committee, said that the measures were necessary only because of the lack of "openness and honesty’’ from the banks about the amount of bad debts on their books. Earlier, Paul Kenny, general secretary of the GMB union, had said that the huge sums involved in the bail-out would generate more public anger. He added:"I do not think that the politicians fully comprehend the depth of anger felt by the public at the irresponsible behaviour by the top directors of the UK banks which has necessitated this multi billion bail out.”

While the Prime Minister insisted that it was right to come to the banks’ rescue, he did put the blame for the crisis squarely at the door of senior executives and the reckless lending which he said took place at many of the troubled institutions. Mr Brown said that he was particularly “angry” at the record losses racked up by the Royal Bank of Scotland, and the large write-offs of foreign debt. He added: “I think people have a right to be angry that these write-offs are happening and that these write-offs were caused by decisions that were made about international investments that were clearly wrong investments. "I came into politics because of the scourge of unemployment in my own home area and I will not sit idly by and let people go to the wall because of the irresponsible mistakes of a few bankers.’’

TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber was another of those to express anger at the banks’ conduct. “Ministers must also realise that there will be public anger that even more tax payers money has had to be put into the banking system, particularly among those who face losing their jobs or homes because of the irresponsible policies pursued by the banks,” he said. “Fighting recession must now take priority, but voters deserve answers to such simple questions as to why banks have such big black holes in their accounts and where the money went. There needs to be a public inquiry into the behaviour of the banks, their advisers and their auditors.” END ARTICLE

[Drewbert]

And mexicans and columbians should stop blaming america for drug gangs ravaging their own countries.


Errr. Drug gangs are ravaging their countries primarily because there's so much money in trafficking BECAUSE of US drug policy. If cocaine was the same price as sugar or coffee, we wouldn't be having this problem.

And you wouldn't have 1/10th of the US black male population in jail, and then you'd have plenty of room there for all the bankers and govt officials that need to be moving into vacant space.

And the USA wouldn't be coating Colombia with herbicides, destroying the environment. You'd think they'd have learnt their lesson after Vietnam, but sadly, no.

[bwhhisc]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIaf870MO7Xc&refer=home

Pound Declines to 23-Year Low Versus Dollar on Plunge in GDP

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The pound slid to the lowest level since 1985 against the dollar and posted its biggest weekly drop in three months after a report showed the U.K. economy shrank more than forecast in the fourth quarter. The U.K. currency also declined versus the euro as the economy suffered its biggest contraction since 1980. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said on Jan. 20 that officials may start buying assets within weeks, after cutting interest rates to the lowest level since 1694. The economy has now shrunk for two consecutive quarters, the definition of a recession.

“The fiscal and monetary measures highlight just how bad things are, and that’s really turned sentiment against sterling,” said Ian Stannard, a senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Sterling is going to remain under severe pressure. We’re going to get continuing bad news on the economy.” The pound dropped as much as 2.7 percent to $1.3503, the lowest level since September 1985, before trading at $1.3681 at 5:56 p.m. in London. The pound fell more than 7 percent this week, the biggest drop since the five days ended Oct. 24. Against the euro, sterling weakened 0.6 percent to 94.29 pence, extending its weekly decline to 4.7 percent.

Gross domestic product fell 1.5 percent from the previous three months, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a contraction of 1.2 percent, according to the median of 33 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

U.K. Recession
The pound tumbled this week as U.K. unemployment climbed in December to the highest level in nine years and home repossessions almost doubled in the third quarter. The number of people receiving jobless benefits in Britain rose by 77,900 to 1.16 million, the highest level since January 2000, the statistics office said on Jan 21. Banks took possession of 13,161 properties, 92 percent more than a year earlier, the Financial Services Authority said the next day.

“The U.K. economic backdrop is worrying,” said Jeremy Stretch, a senior currency strategist in London at Rabobank International. “We’re in an economic downturn. We may well have another attempt at parity” of the pound versus the euro. The Bank of England will cut its main interest rate, currently 1.5 percent, by a half-percentage point when it meets on Feb. 5, a Credit Suisse Group AG index of derivatives showed. The central bank may buy securities such as corporate bonds and commercial paper to counter the global financial crisis, King said on Jan. 20 in Nottingham, England. It will be “weeks and not months” before a program of purchases begins, he said.

Two-year government notes advanced for a second week, with the yield falling 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 1.45 percent. The 10-year gilt yield rose 40 basis points in the week to 3.69 percent, increasing the spread between the two securities to 2.24 percentage points, the widest level since at least January 1992, when Bloomberg began gathering the data.
To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 23, 2009 13:05 EST

[Rubber Duck]

Yes, but frankly currency directions are not necessarily a measure of good health or indeed bad health.

It is basically down to supply and demand.

Over the medium-term currency values reflect the ratio of a Sovereign Governments Tax Base divided by the number of unit in circulation. In other words a Governments ability to pay divided by the number of IOUs it has issued.

In the short-term it reflects the need for currencies by corporations, individuals and even government agencies.

If you export, you receive foreign currency, which the buyer has to acquire from somewhere, if you import you have to acquire currency to make the purchase. A strengthening currency in the short-term can therefore reflect a deteriorating balance of trade. Of course longer-term, this will erode the tax base and therefore have a negative impact on the value of the currency.

If Governments require to borrow a lot of money, they will issue securities like US treasuries. Many of these will be bought by foreign investors. The purchase of such securities requires currencies and will tend to make the currency more expensive, but the requirement to pay interest on those securities will have a detrimental impact on the currencies value in the medium-term. Also such investments are made on sentiment, and reflect people's intuition about where their money is safest. Such judgments are generally based on past performance. Where economies are going through unprecedented changed, these judgments are invariably wrong. When the reality of the situation sinks in investment positions and currency movements unwind.

The other thing one needs to consider is whether any of these apparently positive movements are good for the economy or indeed whether the negative movements are bad. Strong currency can make it easier to borrow, but the demand for debt will probably erode the greater the amount of debt being issued, however, strong currency will have a devastating impact on balance of payments, just at the time when the impact on jobs could not be worse.

So, do I think that a weak pound is something we should be highly concerned about or a strong dollar cause for celebration in the US? Absolutely not. It will all come out in the wash. Economic fundamentals will come to the fore and false valuations will rapidly evaporate.

If you doubt any of this just look what happened to the price of oil last year. None of that reflected economic reality did it?

[bwhhisc]

Yes, but frankly currency directions are not necessarily a measure of good health or indeed bad health. It is basically down to supply and demand.
So, do I think that a weak pound is something we should be highly concerned about or a strong dollar cause for celebration in the US? Absolutely not. It will all come out in the wash. Economic fundamentals will come to the fore and false valuations will rapidly evaporate. If you doubt any of this just look what happened to the price of oil last year. None of that reflected economic reality did it?

I don't think anyone is celebrating anything right now. The worst is yet to come and no one knows how deep that rabbit hole is going to be. The fact is that the world is now one big economy but many refused to see it that way and selfishness, greed, and failure to act on the warning signs by politicians prevailed. A ripple in one economy spins off and effects the others in a myriad of ways...mostly bad. The bigger the economy and the bigger the mess, the more impact it will have.

Just curious if you see Britain looking to move to convert to the Euro in the next few years? Any ideas of the benefits pro and con? Some economist have speculated that had Iceland moved from the krona to the euro that would have softened their economic problems.

[Rubber Duck]

I don't think anyone is celebrating anything right now. The worst is yet to come and no one knows how deep that rabbit hole is going to be. The fact is that the world is now one big economy but many refused to see it that way and selfishness, greed, and failure to act on the warning signs by politicians prevailed. A ripple in one economy spins off and effects the others in a myriad of ways...mostly bad. The bigger the economy and the bigger the mess, the more impact it will have.

Just curious if you see Britain looking to move to convert to the Euro in the next few years? Any ideas of the benefits pro and con? Some economist have speculated that had Iceland moved from the krona to the euro that would have softened their economic problems.

The test will be Slovakia and Czech Republic.

Many say Slovakia will attract more inward investment because of the Euro.

My guess is that it will make them very expensive and uncompetitive.

The Czechs are giving the Euro a wide birth.

[later777]

Yes opium ruined lives but the Brits didn't exactly force the addiction on opium users.
Yes, they just have created optimum conditions for people to fall into addiction:yes:.
As the crisis unfolds (and I think it's going to be huge), the same old crap is happening... People should just sit down and think, what is the reason for all these crises repeating? Unless people understand where this comes from all these mental exercises are futile. One good lesson for me out of studying history was that I never bought any stock. Investing in stocks long term is useless.
Stock exchange is a fraud:yes: A clever one but a fraud nevertheless.

[Rubber Duck]

Yes, they just have created optimum conditions for people to fall into addiction:yes:.
As the crisis unfolds (and I think it's going to be huge), the same old crap is happening... People should just sit down and think, what is the reason for all these crises repeating? Unless people understand where this comes from all these mental exercises are futile. One good lesson for me out of studying history was that I never bought any stock. Investing in stocks long term is useless.
Stock exchange is a fraud:yes: A clever one but a fraud nevertheless.

Frankly, I have to disagree. Investing in human endeavor is an excellent investment. The problem is Greed. Company executives paying themselves huge bonuses for pathetically poor performances is just part of the problem. Much of it comes down to expectations. You are expecting a return for providing the capital for somebodies labors or endeavors. Too many investors expect a bloody lottery win. Pressure is on for management to produce undeliverable miracles. They can increase productivity incrementally, sometimes in quantum leaps but to expect it year in year out is unrealistic. They are bound to fail, which they understand, so they cheat.

On one side we need realistic investor expectations, and on the other we better accountability. Cooking the books is a national past-time in the US and it starts in Government with GDP and employment figures. However, the one figure that none of them fudge indefinitely is the bottom-line. The tax base is shrinking in the US and this will greatly increase the speed at which deficits are raked up. No amount of cooking the books will cover up for the fact that the money has run out.

[later777]

Frankly, I have to disagree. Investing in human endeavor is an excellent investment. The problem is Greed.

But of course the problem is Greed. The thing is that the western society is based on greed which came to be the highest value of the land. You can't fight greed if greed is the blood which runs in your veins. what do you think all these scammers act alone and are some kind of exception to the rule? That's how this society works, unfortunately.

[Rubber Duck]

But, you can legislate to prevent individuals having a monopoly on it. ;)

But of course the problem is Greed. The thing is that the western society is based on greed which came to be the highest value of the land. You can't fight greed if greed is the blood which runs in your veins. what do you think all these scammers act alone and are some kind of exception to the rule? That's how this society works, unfortunately.

[later777]

and where do you find legislators who would do it?

[Rubber Duck]

Well, I guess there must be Democrats that are miffed because they didn't get their fingers as sticky as their counterparts in the GOP.

[later777]

C'mon, RD... Do you really believe that democrats are that different from republicans? They are owned by the same people and the same interests. Like we say in Russia, it's the same penis only it's a view in profile. I have said before that the clash of civilizations that we are witnessing is the clash of ideologies, an ideology of individualism and greed and ideology of collective human interests. I think that we are going to see another world war pretty soon, whether it will start in the ME or Asia, who knows.
Unless, of course, the world could somehow restrain international financial shadow government which was behind all wars in 20th century. But the hopes for this are very slim. Well, it's time to buy a piece of land in Brazil, if you ask me. I have a very good proposal, $50.000, in Olinda, a house 3 min from the beach with good chunk of land.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olinda
Thinking about it.:)

[Drewbert]

C'mon, RD... Do you really believe that democrats are that different from republicans?


I do.

Of course many of the Democrats that are in Washington now are either there for the power, or have been corrupted by the system. Some of them probably flipped a coin to decide if they were going to run as a D or an R.

But there are a LOT of grass-roots Democrats arriving there now who got there via people power (using the Internet to drown out the old-media message that was funded by the power-holders). These are people that come from a background of helping their communities and believing in their country (and it's constitution). They believe that Government ISN'T a problem - it's there to help, but needs to be controlled so it doesn't get filled up with the sort of people that use it for their own purposes or idealogies.

The USA had 8 years of "big government is bad" people running the government (and making it bigger in the process - "homeland security dept", and look where THAT got the world.

Time for a Big change. We just have to shout down the people that keep up with the "America is Center-Right" crap on the traditional media.

[later777]

I do.


The USA had 8 years of "big government is bad" people running the government (and making it bigger in the process - "homeland security dept", and look where THAT got the world.


Drewbert,
don't get me wrong. I am all for the change. But what change? I don't think the problem is just 8 last years. Clinton was a democrat. Remember Jugoslavia?
Lucky him, there were no many bloggers at the time and he got a pass. Now people forgot as the new boss screwed up US this time. Who cares about other countries? This time it hit home. But we remember how Clinton, the democrat, bombed Serbia. And why?
Look at fragment of this short video about NBC:
http://wimp.com/thelies/
This is what I mean when I say they are owned by the same people and interests. Correctly identifying the enemy is an important step.

[Drewbert]

Drewbert,
don't get me wrong. I am all for the change. But what change? I don't think the problem is just 8 last years. Clinton was a democrat. Remember Jugoslavia?
Lucky him, there were no many bloggers at the time and he got a pass. Now people forgot as the new boss screwed up US this time. Who cares about other countries? This time it hit home. But we remember how Clinton, the democrat, bombed Serbia. And why?


Like I said before - "Of course many of the Democrats that are in Washington now are either there for the power, or have been corrupted by the system."

Maybe (hopefully) Obama is different.

He's certainly acting like it so far, in most aspects.

[npcomplete]

I mentioned Olinda to my wife and now she has been obsessing on Brazil for the last couple of days (her grandmother was raised there). I hate it when she gets that "we need to buy something" look in her eyes. Brazil is an interesting hedge play in a lot of ways.


C'mon, RD... Do you really believe that democrats are that different from republicans? They are owned by the same people and the same interests. Like we say in Russia, it's the same penis only it's a view in profile. I have said before that the clash of civilizations that we are witnessing is the clash of ideologies, an ideology of individualism and greed and ideology of collective human interests. I think that we are going to see another world war pretty soon, whether it will start in the ME or Asia, who knows.
Unless, of course, the world could somehow restrain international financial shadow government which was behind all wars in 20th century. But the hopes for this are very slim. Well, it's time to buy a piece of land in Brazil, if you ask me. I have a very good proposal, $50.000, in Olinda, a house 3 min from the beach with good chunk of land.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olinda
Thinking about it.:)

[later777]

Brazil is a great place to buy versus building a bunker in Oklahoma. Many people seem to look south of the border to buy properties- to retire or to settle.
I think Brazil north coast is very interesting too. I hope I can go visit this year.